The Real Deal New York

A look at the 15 worst U.S. housing markets for the next five years

March 07, 2013 01:00PM
By Business Insider

The Miami skyline

Many analysts agree that home prices have bottomed out.

According to the latest data from Fiserv Case-Shiller, National home prices are expected to rise 3.3 percent in the next five years.

Of course, there will be many cities that see home prices lag behind the rest of the country.

We drew on the Fiserv Case-Shiller data to identify the 15 worst housing markets in the U.S.

The bottom 15 cities are ranked by the projected annualized change in home prices between Q3 2012 and Q3 2017.

We also included the median home price, median household income, unemployment rate, and the change in home prices since their peak, to offer a broader view of the local economy and housing market.

Note: The median family income and home price is for Q3 2012. Unemployment data is as of December 2012, and population data for the metros is for 2011.

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: +1.4 percent

The Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro area has seen home prices fall 0.2 percent since they peaked in Q1 2009. It has a median home price of $208,000, which is above the national median of $178,200.

It has a population of nearly 1.8 million, an unemployment rate of 5.1 percent, and a median family income of $73,800, which is above the national median of $63,800.

Data provided by Fiserv Case Shiller Indexes

College Station-Bryan, Texas

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: +1.4 percent

The College Station-Bryan area has a population of about 231,623 million, an unemployment rate of 5.3 percent, and a median family income of $54,800.

Data provided by Fiserv Case Shiller Indexes

Waterloo-Cedar Falls, Iowa

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: +1.4 percent

The Waterloo-Cedar Falls metro area has a population of about 168,289, an unemployment rate of 5.0 percent, and a median family income of $65,200.

Data provided by Fiserv Case Shiller Indexes

Altoona, Pennsylvania

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: +1.4 percent

The Altoona metro area has a population of 127,099, an unemployment rate of 7.1 percent, and a median family income of $56,900.

Data provided by Fiserv Case Shiller Indexes

Laredo, Texas

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: +1.3 percent

The Laredo metro area has seen home prices fall 4.9 percent since their Q1 2009 peak. It has a population of 256,496, an unemployment rate of 6.4 percent, and a median family income of $40,900.

Data provided by Fiserv Case Shiller Indexes

San Angelo, Texas

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: +1.3 percent

The San Angelo metro area has a population of 113,443, an unemployment rate of 4.7 percent, and a median family income of $56,000, which is below the national median of $63,800.

Data provided by Fiserv Case Shiller Indexes

Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, Colorado

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: +0.9 percent

The Denver-Aurora-Broomfield area has seen home prices fall 5.4 percent since they peaked in Q1 2006. It now has a median home price of $273,000.

It has a population of about 2.6 million, an unemployment rate of 7.5 percent, and a median family income of $76,200.

Data provided by Fiserv Case Shiller Indexes

Odessa, Texas

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: +0.9 percent

The Denver-Aurora-Broomfield area has seen home prices fall 5.4 percent since they peaked in Q1 2006. It now has a median home price of $273,000.

It has a population of about 2.6 million, an unemployment rate of 7.5 percent, and a median family income of $76,200.

Data provided by Fiserv Case Shiller Indexes

Midland, Texas

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: +0.9 percent

The Midland metro area has a median family income of $67,500, a population of 140,308, and an unemployment rate of 3.2 percent.

Data provided by Fiserv Case Shiller Indexes

Naples-Marco Island, Florida

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: +0.7 percent

The Naples-Marco Island metro area has a median home price of $265,000, down 50.4 percent from its Q1 2006 peak.

The metro has a population of 328,134, an 8.0 percent unemployment rate, and a median family income of $63,700.

Data provided by Fiserv Case Shiller Indexes

Ann Arbor, Michigan

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: +0.6 percent

Ann Arbor has a median home price of $180,000, down 20.6 percent from its Q4 2005 peak.

It has a population of 347,962, an unemployment rate of 5.3 percent, and a median family income of $84,900.

Data provided by Fiserv Case Shiller Indexes

Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, Arizona

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: +0.5 percent

The Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale metro area has a median home price of $175,000 and home prices are 47.5 percent off their Q2 2006 peak.

It has a population of 4.26 million, an unemployment rate of 6.7 percent, and a median family income of $60,300.

Data provided by Fiserv Case Shiller Indexes

Elmira, New York

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: +0.5 percent

Elmira has a median home price of $106,000, which is below the national median of $178,200.

It has a population of 88,840, an unemployment rate of 9.2 percent, and a median family income of $58,800.

Data provided by Fiserv Case Shiller Indexes

Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Florida

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: -0.2 percent

Home prices in the Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach metro area have fallen 46.1 percent since their Q2 2006 peak.

The median home price is $220,000, above the national median of $178,200. It has a median family income is $60,600, below the national median of $63,800. The metro area has a population of about 1.8 million and an unemployment rate of 6.9 percent.

Data provided by Fiserv Case Shiller Indexes

Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Florida

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: -1.0 percent

Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall home prices are 48.4 percent off their Q1 2007 peak, and the metro has a median home price of $206,000.

It has a population of 2.5 million people, an unemployment rate of 8.8 percent, and a median family income of $48,200 below the national median.

Data provided by Fiserv Case Shiller Indexes

  • Tobias Kaiser

    By itself, the raw data *may* be correct, but the interpretation is utterly wrong, as I have often observed with C/S-data (I’m a local broker with 22 years in my own office – modernsouthflorida.com).

    There are many market segments in both counties which are experiencing hefty (if not unhealthy) selling price increases. 2012 saw +23 percent selling prices in Broward county and +12 percent in Miami-Dade, for single family homes (source: SEF-MLS). If you drill further down into segments, increases are even higher, e.g. for SFH under $500,000 or for Miami Bay-front homes.

    Case/Shiller is a bit like a navigation system: ok when you’re from out of town, but it always looses against local knowledge.

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