From the February issue: While activity remains sluggish in the New York real estate market,
there may be pockets of opportunities for profits over the next few
years for those who invest wisely.
Experts point to three areas for investors looking to lay the
groundwork for a future fortune: office towers, land and multifamily
buildings.
First, a warning or two. Many of the properties sold will go to
insiders rather than victors in a public auction process. With few
assets available for cheap prices through public listings, “smart money
will use alternative paths to get to core real estate,” said Dan
Fasulo, managing director at Real Capital Analytics.
While there will be “opportunities to pick up quality assets at
attractive prices over the next year,” he warned that “investors who
feel like we’re going to fall off a cliff … will be greatly
disappointed.” [more]

Going forward, broad economic indicators may determine the health of the real estate market in New York City, The Real Deal‘s Jill Gardiner told My Fox NY in a recent segment. Unemployment will impact the market more so than any other factor, she said, though on the opposite end of the spectrum, big bonuses on Wall Street will also play a role. “If you’re just an average buyer on the market, even if you’re not getting a huge bonus, they still have an impact on you because they trickle through the market and they spark activity,” Gardiner said. Meanwhile, foreign interest in the city — particularly in Manhattan trophy properties — is at a near fever pitch, according to Edward Mermelstein, a real estate attorney who represents foreign investors. He said he believes retail prices have further to fall before they can begin to recover.

German-based lender Deutsche Bank is suing to recover $11.3 million in personal loans it gave to developer Kent Swig at the height of the market. In the lawsuit — which was filed on Thursday in New York State Supreme Court — Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas claims Swig borrowed $6.8 million in March 2007 in two separate loans and borrowed another $5 million in October of that year. But, according to the suit, the embattled developer defaulted after paying back only a small portion of the loan with $11.3 million still outstanding. The bank may, however, have to get in a long line of creditors seeking money from Swig, president of development firm Swig Equities. He is fighting creditors on a number of fronts and last month threatened to file for personal bankruptcy if a $28 million judgment tied to Sheffield57 was enforced. [more]