source: Bloomberg News (Wall Street bonus data reflects compensation from two years prior)

The high-end Manhattan real estate that has propped up an otherwise stagnant sales market, is likely to begin a decline of its own in 2013 and 2014. According to data from the New York State Comptroller’s office and Miller Samuel CEO Jonathan Miller cited by Bloomberg News, the top 10 percent of the Manhattan condominium and co-op market tends to follow the pattern set by Wall Street bonuses two years earlier (see chart above). [more]

Dolly Lenz of Prudential Douglas Elliman (credit: Curbed) Prudential Douglas Elliman’s Dolly Lenz talks New York City luxury real estate, telling Bloomberg Television, “the buyer has the most power in the $3 million range,” if they can get a mortgage (see video here). “If they are ready to jump, they are gonna get a deal,” in the current market, the vice chairman said. She also explains why the residential market doesn’t seem to be moving — a bunch of new development hit in the third quarter, making fourth-quarter sales look comparably sluggish — and why prices won’t be lagging, even if sales do, anytime soon — ”there’s no place else to put [your] money!”

From the January issue: A luxury residential report once made available only to an exclusive few New Yorkers is now available en masse, providing yet another insight into New York’s vast real estate market. Olshan Realty, a Manhattan-based boutique brokerage, has been producing its weekly Luxury Tracker since 2006, sharing the details on the $4 million-and-up market with a small group. But the volatile luxury market seen during the downturn convinced company president Donna Olshan that others would benefit from reading it. “In every downturn I have worked in, the high end held better than all others — except for the post-Lehman era,” said Olshan, a 30-year industry veteran. [more]

From left: Peter Riguardi, Don Capoccia, Frederick Peters, Roger Erickson and Daun Paris

Although many end-of-the-year residential and commercial real estate sales reports have yet to arrive, a new year grants the license to look back and evaluate how predictions and prognostications made last year panned out over the past 12 months. Many of the experts The Real Deal talked to last year had a bleak outlook for 2009 — and rightly so. But others missed the mark, either with too-optimistic predictions for recovery or overreaching pessimism that — if it’s possible — actually overstated how devastating the market would ultimately prove to be in 2009. Here, The Real Deal looks back at some of the top claims and predictions made in the beginning of last year to see who hit the nail on the head and who missed the mark.  More

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From left, Neil Binder, Wolf Jakubowski and Jonathan Miller

From the November issue: The beleaguered luxury real estate market in New York is beginning to show some positive signs, but there is expected to be a lot of stumbling along the path to recovery. The high-end market here has been harder hit in terms of both price drops and activity than any other sector, and there’s still a sense of nervousness among many about buying multimillion-dollar properties. However, in this month’s Q & A, The Real Deal talked to market analysts, top luxury brokers and heads of firms who said that while there is still a lot of caution, they are beginning to see a mild increase in activity in Manhattan’s most exclusive property trades. Within the last two months, some say they have noticed an increase in buyers, who for the first time in the last year are not convinced that prices will continue to go down. But sales are still way off, and one analyst disputed the notion that prices are going to head back up anytime soon, saying “inventory is still grossly overpriced for the current conditions.” Meanwhile, many of the transactions that have taken place are from all-cash buyers who are paying lower prices, or from buyers who are putting in at least half of the cash needed to finance the purchase. That means the jumbo mortgages that drive the segment are still not getting easier to obtain — a reality that does not bode well for the sector in the near future. And many of those interviewed said sellers are still not dropping their prices to the levels they need to be at to lure buyers. They said the $2.6 million to $5 million range and the $10 million to $20 million range have suffered most. For more on what’s going on, which areas of Manhattan have seen the largest drops in the luxury sector and which ones are holding stronger, we turn to our panel of experts.

High-end real estate sales may struggle, but the business of photographing luxury listings is growing in Connecticut, real estate pros said. Phil Scott, a New Canaan-based real estate photographer, said that while his overall business has dropped in the financial downturn, he’s seen an uptick in requests for luxury real estate photography and aerial shots of multimillion-dollar homes on the market. He charges anywhere from $350 to more than $1,000 for marketing shots, depending on the size of the space. While this trend is seemingly counterintuitive, many brokers in the area say that maintaining a quality marketing initiative is essential in the face of sluggish sales.