Housing experts including Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, cautioned legislators yesterday that the size of mortgages backed by the government should not be reduced in October as a result of the fragility of the market, the Wall Street Journal reported.

If Congress doesn’t change course soon, they said, the maximum size of loans that can be guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration will be reduced Oct. 1 to $625,500 from the current $729,750 in markets such as New York and Washington D.C.

Many Democrats are eager for the change to be blocked but the majority of Republicans view permitting the drop as a way to reduce the U.S. mortgage market’s dependence on government. [more]

Housing experts are predicting a nationwide decline in home prices, according to CNN Money, as weak employment, tight lending and the robo-signing fiasco hamper hopes for a comeback. Analytics firm Fiserv had been optimistic regarding market stabilization earlier this year, predicting in February a 4 percent gain by the end of 2011. Now, the company has reversed its sentiment, saying it foresees a 7.1 percent drop by mid-2011. Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s Analytics, said he expects home prices across the country to be down another 8 percent by this time next year. If Zandi’s prediction comes to fruition, the total peak-to-trough decline would hit 34 percent. [CNN Money]

[more]

As more homes nationwide work their way through the foreclosure pipeline, economists are growing concerned that a growing shadow inventory — homes that are in distress and face a foreclosure-driven sale — could hamper progress on home prices. Estimates show that as many as 12 million more properties may soon hit the market, as the foreclosure crisis resolves, which could lead to three more years of dropping prices. Oliver Chang, a U.S. housing analyst with Morgan Stanley said that burgeoning inventory may prevent the market from reaching bottom. “Whether it’s the sidelined, shadow or current inventory, the issue is there’s more supply than demand,” Chang said. Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s, said that prices will drop another 5 percent by 2013 and may not recover for a decade. [Bloomberg]

[more]

While the rest of the country looks forward to a bit of a respite in the hard, grinding slide of property prices, New Yorkers will enjoy less relief in 2010. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com, said prices are still inflated compared to rents, eroding the possibility of price improvements in the near future. The New York City metro area ranked 84th-worst out of the 100 markets in his forecast, with the 2009 median home price of $416,730 expected to fall another 15.63 percent, ahead of his national forecast range of 5 percent to 10 percent. Rounding out the regional duds, Nassau County in Long Island ranked 76th, with the $368,260 expected to drop 13.14 percent and Newark, N.J. was No. 71, with the $367,380 median slated to drop 11.29 percent. [Fortune via CNN Money] 

Top row, from left: Nouriel Roubini, Pamela Liebman, Joseph Sitt; bottom row, from left: Mark Zandi, Dolly Lenz, Miki Naftali

The New York condo market has nearly bottomed out, the commercial market in the city hasn’t even “tasted the pain that’s about to come” and, despite years of controversy, Coney Island will get redeveloped. Those were just some of the arguments that panelists made last night at The Real Deal’s 5th Annual Forum at Lincoln Center. Leading economist Nouriel Roubini also said there may be a second wave of pain during the recession and noted that actual job losses are even worse than what unemployment numbers reveal because they don’t include the cutback in hours and wages that a lot of those who are still working have experienced. Roubini — who earned the nickname Dr. Doom for his early predictions of an economic crisis — said that “labor income is crashing” and that a double-dip “W” shaped recovery is possible. In addition to Roubini, panelists included powerbroker Dolly Lenz, the Corcoran Group CEO Pam Liebman, Coney Island developer Joe Sitt, Plaza developer Miki Naftali and Moody’s economist Mark Zandi. They spoke in front of a packed house of about 1,500 people at Alice Tully Hall, with Fox Business News anchor Brian Sullivan moderating.  More

[more]

Top row, from left: Nouriel Roubini, Pamela Liebman, Joseph Sitt; bottom row, from left: Mark Zandi, Dolly Lenz, Miki Naftali

The Real Deal is hosting its fifth annual forum tonight,
“Distressed Opportunities: Taking Advantage of Distress and Searching
for Recovery,” at Alice Tully Hall in Lincoln Center. The panel of
experts includes Nouriel Roubini, co-founder and chairman of RGE Monitor; Elad Properties CEO
Miki Naftali; Thor Equities CEO Joseph Sitt;
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi; Corcoran Group CEO Pamela Liebman;
and Dolly Lenz, vice chairman at Prudential Douglas Elliman. The
networking and exhibition portion of the evening will begin at 3 p.m.
today, and the main event will begin at 6:30 p.m. Tickets are still
available at the Lincoln Center box office. For more information,
please visit the event page. TRD

Comments

From left: Pamela Liebman of the Corcoran Group and Dolly Lenz of Prudential Douglas Elliman

Two new additions have been announced for The Real Deal’s fifth annual forum, “Distressed Opportunities: Taking advantage of distress and searching for a real estate recovery.” Dolly Lenz, vice chairman of Prudential Douglas Elliman, and Pamela Liebman, president and CEO of the Corcoran Group, will join the all-star panel of real estate executives, analysts and economists. Other panelists include economist Nouriel Roubini, co-founder and chairman of RGE Monitor and NYU professor of economics; Coney Island developer Joseph Sitt, CEO of Thor Equities; Plaza developer Miki Naftali, president and CEO of the Elad Group, and Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. The event, to be held Oct. 14 at Alice Tully Hall, Lincoln Center, will be moderated by Brian Sullivan, an anchor at Fox Business News. The forum will kick off at 3 p.m. with a networking and exhibition period, followed by the main event at 6:30 p.m. More panelists will be announced. Seating is limited. Tickets cost $80 and can be purchased by clicking here or calling Centercharge at (212) 721-6500. TRD [more]

From left: Nouriel Roubini of RGE Monitor, Joseph Sitt of Thor Equities, Mark Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com and Miki Naftali of the Elad Group

Looking to explore and identify opportunities in the distressed marketplace? At next month’s fifth annual The Real Deal forum, a panel of leading real estate experts and economists will debate what the future holds for the New York City real estate market and how they are coping with the downturn. The panel includes world famous economist Nouriel Roubini, co-founder and chairman of RGE Monitor and NYU professor of economics; Coney Island developer Joseph Sitt, CEO of Thor Equities; Plaza developer Miki Naftali, president and CEO of the Elad Group, and Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. The event, to be held Oct. 14 at Alice Tully Hall, Lincoln Center, will be moderated by Brian Sullivan, an anchor at Fox Business News. The forum will kick off at 3 p.m. with a networking and exhibition period, followed by the main event at 6:30 p.m. More panelists will be announced. Seating is limited. Tickets cost $80 and can be purchased by clicking here or calling Centercharge at (212) 721-6500. TRD
[more]

CNBC’s Steve Liesman discusses the recent increase in interest rates and its impact on home sales. Federal officials say the administration’s plan to purchase mortgage-backed securities is intended to shore up the credit markets. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com, said rising mortgage rates are hurting the refinancing market and home sales. But the federal measures may not be enough to impact the market, opponents say. [more]