Click chart for larger version. (Source: Citi Habitats)

Manhattan rental transactions surged in the fourth quarter of 2009, while rents dropped modestly, according to market reports released by two large city brokerages today (see full reports after the jump). A marketwide report released by Prudential Douglas Elliman estimated that the number of rental deals in Manhattan leaped 47.6 percent to 2,456 in the fourth quarter, from 1,665 in the same period of 2008. Citi Habitats, the city’s largest rental brokerage, said it did more than 2,600 transactions in the fourth quarter, an increase of 30 percent from roughly 1,800 in the prior-year-quarter.
(In a market where rental data is notoriously difficult to obtain, firms use different data to compile their reports.) Moreover, listing inventory dropped 21 percent to 5,255 units, from 6,640 during the fourth quarter of 2008, according to the Elliman report, which was prepared by appraiser Jonathan Miller, president and CEO of real estate appraisal firm Miller Samuel.
The upswing in activity “is a positive development, and we’ll take it,” Miller said, though he noted that the fourth quarter of 2008 saw particularly low levels of activity because of the Lehman Brothers collapse.
“There was clearly a surge in activity coming from a very low point from this time last year, which was post-Lehman,” he said.
Rental prices, meanwhile, are lower than last year, but not drastically so.
Citi Habitats, which only tracks apartments rented by its own agents, said average rents fell between 5.8 and 7.3 percent year-over-year, and dipped 1.5 to 3.3 percent from the third quarter. [more]

Following the news that Jonathan Miller is involved in a new venture to convert $1 billion in distressed condos, The Real Deal asked the city’s best-known appraiser whether this could impact the credibility of his widely read reports. After all, quarterly market reports prepared by Miller — the president and CEO of the real estate appraisal firm Miller Samuel — for Prudential Douglas Elliman, have become industry gospel in recent years. Now that he has an additional economic interest in the ups and downs of the market, does that amount to a conflict of interest? No, says Miller. Though he will have an equity stake in the venture, known as Condominium Recovery LLC, he will not be involved in the development end of the business. His job in the new company will be conducting appraisals of properties — his current bread and butter. “I’m still doing the same thing,” he said. “I’m not a developer — I’m on a team with a developer.” Miller said he has given the issue some serious thought. “This is something that I reviewed very carefully in the beginning,” he said. “Essentially, I’m brought in for valuation expertise. I’m not an operator. It’s no different than consulting with a developer.” Not everyone in the industry is so sure.  More [more]

Looking to drum up some business in these tough times? Try issuing a
market report.

During the roller coaster ride that has been the residential real
estate market of the past year, brokers and consumers have scrambled
for information to interpret rapidly changing market forces. In
response, real estate firms have issued a veritable avalanche of
market reports, each hoping to become the consumer’s go-to source for
information, and grow their brand in the process.

But this information overload may now be backfiring, since there are
now so many reports available, often with wildly disparate information.

“All of these firms believe in [issuing reports] as a way of marketing
themselves and separating themselves from the competition,” said Paul
Purcell, a partner at real estate consultancy Braddock + Purcell and
the co-founder of Charles Rutenberg Realty in New York. “It simply
serves to confuse the consumer, and make them wonder why each firm has
different information.” [more]

The most trusted name in New York City residential real estate
statistics, Jonathan Miller, is finally releasing his long-awaited
quarterly rental report. Prudential Douglas Elliman is slated to publish its first-ever
quarterly Manhattan rental market overview next Thursday. The report
will be prepared by Miller, who is the president and CEO of Miller
Samuel. Miller has authored Elliman’s quarterly reports for real estate sales
in Manhattan since 1994. Miller also produces Elliman’s quarterly
reports for Brooklyn, Long Island and Queens and the Hamptons/North
Fork, and has emerged as an oft-quoted source for residential market
data. The city’s other major brokerage firms, including the Corcoran Group,
Halstead Property and Brown Harris Stevens, also release quarterly
market reports on residential sales. But until now, the rentals market has been a much more secretive business. [more]

The second-quarter Manhattan market reports, released by city
brokerages today, are a bizarre amalgam of unparalleled bad news — like
significant price declines and record decreases in sales volume — and
good news, such as more contracts and fewer price cuts. Experts say the seemingly contradictory data reflects the springtime
pickup in activity playing out against the backdrop of the continued
real estate slump. “Year-over-year, the numbers are very bad; I want to make that very
clear,” said Bill Staniford, the CEO of PropertyShark, which partnered
with the Corcoran Group to release a quarterly report. “But we are
starting to see some silver linings.” As expected, the impact of the fall’s Wall Street crisis and real
estate slump continued to drag down the Manhattan market, with sales
off a record 50 percent from the same quarter last year, quarterly
reports released by Corcoran, Prudential Douglas Elliman, Halstead
Property and Brown Harris Stevens found. [more]