Number of signed contracts for Manhattan home sales (Source: UrbanDigs.com)

The number of signed sales contracts for Manhattan condominiums and co-ops has declined every month since July, forecasting a drop in closed sales volume for the fourth quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012, according to Jeffrey Jackson, chairman of appraisal firm Mitchell, Maxwell & Jackson.

The most widly publicized figures from recent Manhattan market reports indicate an increase in sales activity in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter. Prudential Douglas Elliman, for example, said that sales transactions rose 17.2 percent over the previous quarter, while the Corcoran Group found a 6 percent quarter-over-quarter increase. [more]

From the November issue: The autumn leaves are turning, and New York’s fall real estate market may be changing, too.

Autumn has traditionally been one of the busiest times of the year for residential sales, along with spring — the season of tax refunds and bonuses.

But real estate brokers say the fall selling season has declined in importance over the past few years, thanks to factors like the city’s dependence on bonuses and later-than-usual Jewish holidays.

It’s too soon to say whether the shift is permanent, but some say it could be a long-term trend rather than a temporary side effect of the topsy-turvy, post-Lehman economy. [more]

From the October issue: If hindsight is 20/20, forecasting the future might be 20/200. Yes, there have been some right-on-target predictions in the last few years — among them, mathematician Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s warnings that a meltdown of the world’s financial systems was imminent in the mid-2000s. But nailing down with certainty what tomorrow’s economy may bring, experts say, is at best a crapshoot.

The difficulty of crystal-ball gazing was, in fact, the heart of Taleb’s 2007 book, “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,” in which he says that knowing with certainty when the next big calamity will hit is as tough as finding an actual black swan.

However, Taleb goes on to say that one should try to prepare for life’s black-swan events — like Hurricane Katrina, say, or the Sept. 11 attacks — by having safeguards in place for a multitude of worst-case scenarios. [more]

From the October issue: It’s conventional wisdom that low interest rates stimulate home sales, but in today’s roller-coaster economy, conventional wisdom does not seem to apply.

Despite the optimism of real estate and mortgage brokers, analysts say low rates, as a symptom of wider economic malaise, may actually hinder home sales in New York.

“Brokers may use low rates as a reason to [convince clients to] buy, but the flaw with that argument is that you can’t just look at rates and dismiss investors’ confidence,” said Noah Rosenblatt, the founder of Manhattan-based UrbanDigs, a property consulting and analytics firm. The industry headed into autumn with mortgage rates at all-time lows: Freddie Mac reported early last month that 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages were at historically low levels of 4.12 percent and 3.33 percent, respectively. [more]

From left: RentJuice’s David Vivero, Noah Rosenblatt of Urbandigs and a screenshot of RentJuice

San Francisco-based online rental management company RentJuice, which launched in 2009 and expanded to New York earlier this year, has launched a new Facebook-inspired feature.
The RentJuice Directory offers real estate pros the ability to browse and search for other real estate companies in their area, establish new partnerships, and send and receive a continual stream of rental listings, via one dashboard, the company said.
Sharing rental listings has always been tricky, with new property listings coming from various different sources, including big-money brokerages as well small, independent real estate firms. Sites such as listings and real estate information site Streeteasy.com and Brooklyn’s Multiple Listings Service,have made strides in bringing all the listings to one place, but the battle is never completely won.
While the majority of brokers say they embrace the market’s ever-growing transparency, some have responded by becoming less willing to share information than before. Hoping to give themselves an advantage in the market, some brokers hang on to listings and keep stum. [more]

Noah Rosenblatt, founder of UrbanDigs

Noah Rosenblatt, founder of Manhattan market trends analytics site UrbanDigs, launched a new flat fee buyer consulting service today. He said the service aims to help home seekers find properties’ true market value, and will then guide them through the buying and negotiating process, starting with the opening bid. Rosenblatt said the service is aimed at buyers who don’t trust brokers and want an independent advisor. “There’s a perception that there should be a little bit less conflict of interest, a little less incentive for the buyer’s broker to get the buyer to bid as high as possible and get the deal done and collect commission,” said Rosenblatt, who has continued to serve as a traditional buyer’s broker since leaving Halstead Property in 2009. “There’s a need for an independent consulting service.” [more]

Most industry insiders recognize that residential market reports can be deceptive — but few would assume that city records could be to blame for skewed sales data. According to Noah Rosenblatt, head of real estate tracking site UrbanDigs.com, the lag time between when a residential sale is filed with the city and when it’s recorded on public record is great enough to distort monthly and quarterly reports. “We all know that when a transaction closes the deal is done and should be available for use as a comparable sale,” Rosenblatt said. “But when it gets recorded as public record is another story.” [more]

Sofia Song and Noah Rosenblatt

On Monday, March 15, visitors to the real [more]

While the first-time homebuyer tax credit program is set to expire April 30, it could end up affecting housing statistics for weeks to come. That’s because homebuyers have until June to close on properties if they sign contracts by next Friday. The program, extended from last fall, offers $8,000 to first-time buyers and $6,500 to repeat buyers. The credit could result in a continued, artificial rise in the rate of mortgage application filings, which showed a 13.6 percent uptick for the week ending April 16 according to seasonally adjusted week-over-week data released today from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The average 30-year mortgage rate, meanwhile, dipped to 5.07 percent from 5.17 percent, according to the MBA’s report. [more]

From the April issue: As The Real Deal and other publications have reported, bidding wars — once thought to be bygone relics of the real estate boom — started reappearing in New York late last year.

At that time, the battles were limited to rare or exceptionally well-priced properties. But now that much of the city’s residential inventory has been snapped up, bidding wars are becoming the rule rather than the exception for market-priced property.

“You don’t have to be provocatively low [-priced] to solicit a bidding war today,” said Barak Dunayer, president of Barak Realty, estimating that his company now receives multiple offers on nearly three-quarters of its properties that are priced appropriately for the market. “It’s almost every listing that we have.” [more]