The South Florida residential real estate market will not rebound to previous highs until 2030, according to a Moody’s Economy.com prediction. The forecast made something of a stir when it appeared deep in an article on community development districts in Business Week Monday (see chart on the forecast below).
While Moody’s Economy.com was under a contractual obligation not to release the specific data it had supplied to Bloomberg, it provided The Real Deal with data that supported a reasonably similar forecast — a peak to trough price trajectory that tells of a long road ahead for Florida real estate.
The data was provided with a forecast map upon which the Bloomberg citation was based, along with separate data showing a comparable recovery forecast.
The 2030 number comes from the map compiled by Fiserv, FHFA and Moody’s Economy.com. The map, entitled “Harder Hit Metros Will Take Longer to Recover,” predicts that Florida real estate, specifically South Florida, will not be able to regain its previous price peak until 2030 or later. With the exception of a few counties across the United States, only the Southwest — California, Nevada and Arizona — have regions with such dire predictions. The nationwide recovery prediction is 2020, according to the map.
Additional Moody’s Economy.com data shows a comparable trajectory.
According to analysis of the single-family home price state and countywide dating back to 1979, when it was $44,760. Florida real estate hit its peak in the fourth quarter of 2005, when the median existing single-family price was $267,910 that is, a median existing home price of $267,910.
The additional set of Moody’s analysis does not show Florida prices regaining that number until, the earliest, the fourth quarter of 2025.
mapbberg
March 16, 2010 at 7:18 pm, Rob M (NYC) said:
Utilizing Old Testament methodology of feast and famine, whereby economies grow and contract for seven years, a methodology that tracks real estate markets in general, recovery of real estate prices in Florida should start in 2013 with a peak around 2020; nine years earlier than the Moody’s forecast. While admittedly not scientific and to be taken with a grain of salt, following Moody’s likely very technical approach is likely inaccurate as well. The problem is that a technical approach fails to take into account irrational price swings. Every week speculators make large bulk purchases. The longer unfinished developments go, the more likely they get permanently shuttered, further reducing supply. At some point inventory drops sufficiently that sales to individuals will begin at bargain prices as the weaker bulk buyers will not be able to afford the continued carrying costs. Excitement builds and flipping reignites. Miami may end up with a permanent middle class rental stock; especially if business with South America accelerates with industry realizing that it starts to make sense to have a presence in a prominent Latin city. But don’t ask me when new pyramid construction begins. That’s a different analysis.
March 12, 2010 at 10:17 am, South FL Real Estate Agent said:
Read the article – it says the SoFL RE market won’t PEAK again until 2030 (using the 2005 market analogy). Those days are over. The usual and historical market appreciated per year at 4-5%. If this report is correct then you should be buying now or in the near future LOW, hold on to it for a few years, then get your 5-9% (or higher depending on how long you hold it) appreciation. In 2005 people were getting over 22-25% appreciation that year.
March 12, 2010 at 11:38 am, Get in the Game said:
Historical appreciation is NOT 4% – 5%.
Historical appreciation is inflation (at best).
SAVE your money and buy with cash.
Then who cares if the used or new structures appreciate or not.
You are LIVING in the dang place.
March 12, 2010 at 11:41 am, Anonymous said:
Who trusts RE agents anyway? These tools were telling everyone to buy, buy, buy in 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005.
Then they had to gall to tell people ‘now is the time to buy’ in 2009!
If you listen to a RE agent, you are an idiot.
March 29, 2010 at 1:33 am, Anonymous said:
I just bought in South Florida. The deal closes in 3 weeks. 308k. The home backs up to the water. Got a nice pool. Large, multiple palm trees. I’m going to park my boat behind on the 10k lbs lift, and be on the open water in about a minute.
I agree, buy now.. There is extreme value to be had. Check it out. Gulf Cove Florida in Charlotte Country. Thanks real estate crash!!
May 27, 2011 at 1:20 am, Anonymous said:
Realtors, especially in South Florida are in the same category as used car salesman, horse traders, and lawyers. They’re basically bottom feeders and will take from any food source.
March 12, 2010 at 3:22 pm, Anonymous said:
well said
March 12, 2010 at 4:32 pm, Realtor with integrity said:
Thank you South florida Real estate agent from one to the other! You are correct! Thids why these people are complaining, they think they know more than you – and you work the market every day!
I think they watch too much HGTV.
I watched on Sunday and how is it these agents are able to get offers higher than the list price?
I don’t get it?
March 12, 2010 at 5:29 pm, South Florida Broker said:
When property values shot up to unrealistic highs, who in their right mind thought it could continue? Traditionally, a 3-5% increase in values has always been enjoyed in South Florida and based on today’s purchase prices, that same 3-5% increase would in fact place values at or about 2005 values in the years 2020-2030. Florida is still and will remain the No. 1 seasonal, vacation, and retirement area of the country. So go ahead, point your fingers, but if you’re smart, you’d buy now with the marketing bottomed and interest rates at the lowest is years.
March 12, 2010 at 7:36 pm, Anonymous said:
Listen the banks are not doing anything to help us. Our home values has depreciated and by the time it comes back, we are all old. What happen to the American Dream of owning a home? It was just a fairy tale!
March 11, 2010 at 12:50 pm, Anonymous said:
obviously, it doesn’t make sense to buy in the South Florida market until 2031
March 13, 2010 at 6:55 am, Anonymous said:
It’s all about the sun and the sand. As soon as the economy and consumer confidence rebounds (who knows when) people will begin to by again. Pricing will then begin to be dictated by inventory. A slow climb for sure, but 2030? I don’t think so.
March 13, 2010 at 6:58 am, ChrissyHF said:
Sounds good to me! I am glad I didn’t buy!
March 16, 2010 at 10:12 am, RE Investor/Broker said:
This article represents a classic case of the challenges of advising the average RE purchaser on making a purchase in the face of such strongly negative media pieces. When all of the news and media were claiming that RE was the best thing since sliced bread, it caused everyone to jump in and “buy buy buy,” which fueled a tremendous bubble. The savvy folks understand that when all signs say “BUY!” it’s already too late and you should in fact not buy. They also understand that when all of the media is negative on RE, it’s often the best time to buy. This is the case now, as it is in fact a GOOD thing that we won’t be back to our ridiculous 2005/2006 prices until 2030. This means buyers can comfortably make a purchase now – rather than waiting forever to gauge that illustrious market “bottom” just right – because we’ll only see very slow, metered appreciation for years to come, meaning no one will get swept up on the bad side of a huge up-and-down market swing.
May 05, 2010 at 11:21 pm, Mike said:
Force people to buy! Make rent prices so high they have no choice.
March 22, 2011 at 10:35 pm, Anonymous said:
Unemployment tough all over and looking for work over a year now. I’m 50 and tempted to buy something, taking from my retirement pension as funding while prices are low in SFL. Scared to death though as Suze Ormon would deny for sure! Realtor’s tell us, of course, that NOW is the time to buy. Other authors think recovery will take years. I think 2031 is a bit far fetched but maybe 10 yrs?
March 11, 2010 at 3:46 pm, Anonymous said:
im going to start buying everything in 2028 then laugh about it in 2031 when people realize they should start buying again
March 13, 2010 at 9:47 pm, Anonymous said:
The market may remain depressed for a few more years for the average and ordinary home; however, hot location properties are still in high demand. One well known community in S. Florida has had homes sell in as little as one week when they are put on the market, and are well priced. It’s all about supply and demand.
April 30, 2010 at 9:55 am, Anonymous said:
I just bought as well. A large 2 bed 1500SQFT at the bridgwater condominium (N.bay Village), large private 2000 SQFT deck(included with unit) directly overlooking the Biscayne bay inlet and normandy isles. $210k Thank you real estate crash as well.
March 20, 2010 at 1:29 am, James said:
Who cares about the real state market?
I am renting a beautiful house and life is great.
If something brakes, the landlord fixes it for me
I do not pay any HOA, property tax or Insurance
I have the freedom to move out as long as I respect the lease.
I am not afraid of hurricane anymore and since I do not have
a huge mortgage, I can afford to do and buy things I could
not do otherwise.
The bottom line is that I basically love Renting!
March 14, 2010 at 11:05 am, Edward said:
What credibility does the author of this article or Moody’s economy have? What were they saying in 2005 when the cheap credit was driving home prices up? Did anyone say this real estate boom was an illusion and prices had to come down?
The fact is that home prices will never have again the same value as in 2005. A good way to measure a home’s value is to price it in gold which has functioned as reliable money that holds its value for thousands of years. Example: you bought a home for $1 million in 2005 when gold was $500/oz…so you paid 2,000 ounces of gold for the home. Today the home is worth $550,000 and gold is $1,100/oz. Your home is now only worth 500 ounces of gold. Your home will never be worth again 2,000 ounces of gold.
December 21, 2010 at 1:47 pm, Anonymous said:
I spent 4 years in the FLAT so called “Tropical paradise”
Boomers are finding out this is not what the spin doctors are promoting.
Many are finding Georgia and the Carolinas have a lot more to offer.
Florida is, and always will be transients.
As my Doctor, who has been in SWFL for many years told me at my first visit. “My wife calls Florida,a sunny place for shady people”
March 11, 2010 at 8:01 pm, Anonymous said:
you can buy but you have to be really good if u want to make $$$
the most expensive and the least may make out ok
February 06, 2011 at 2:03 pm, Anonymous said:
All I know is I bought a 2 bedroom 2 bath condo in a good spot for 43,000 cash and i cant lose so hang onto your money and wait until they go up again. I will be sittining on my porch enjoying the sun
May 30, 2011 at 10:53 pm, Anonymous said:
People should charge ridiculous rent prices forcing people to buy.
April 14, 2013 at 2:38 pm, Carmicheal Jits said:
Whispering Misty…
So sorry you are going to skip the workshop!…
April 17, 2013 at 9:24 pm, How to Win Friends and Influence People PDF Blogspot said:
The Slave of the Husband…
Seeking in advance to researching additional from you afterward!……
April 18, 2013 at 3:18 pm, distilling definition said:
Brilliant Article…
Im grateful for your amazing article. Definitely looking towards reading some more. Just so cool….
April 19, 2013 at 9:51 am, read more said:
read more…
http://www.itesttrackbacks.com…
April 19, 2013 at 2:52 pm, body shaper said:
Thank you!…
magnificent publish, very informative. I’m wondering why the other experts of this sector do not notice this. You must continue your writing. I am sure, you’ve a huge readers’ base already!…
April 19, 2013 at 6:20 pm, http://zuoto25.webs.com said:
…
[...]usually posts some really fascinating stuff like this. If you’re new to this site[...]…
April 20, 2013 at 6:58 am, backpacking tents said:
Kirk Perun…
Thanks for your posting. One other thing is the fact that individual states have their particular laws in which affect householders, which makes it very difficult for the our lawmakers to come up with a brand new set of guidelines concerning home forec…
April 20, 2013 at 10:10 am, jasa website dan seo said:
…Check this out…
[...]Nice blog here! Also your website lots up fast![...]…
April 22, 2013 at 12:48 pm, the Aromhuset Classic Cola Soda Concentrate said:
Keep Reading…
I just loved your blog article. Thanks Once more. Terrific….
April 22, 2013 at 5:33 pm, click here said:
…
[...]Every the moment in a even though we opt for blogs that we read. Listed beneath are the most current web pages that we decide on [...]…
April 22, 2013 at 10:41 pm, Christian Louboutin Replica said:
cheap christian louboutin shoes for men…
Nice post. I was checking continuously this blog and I’m impressed! Extremely useful info specifically the last part
I care for such info much. I was looking for this particular info for a long time. Thank you and good luck….
April 22, 2013 at 11:26 pm, rolex imitation said:
imitation rolex…
The all-steel cased versions have white gold on the face instead of yellow gold…
April 23, 2013 at 6:13 am, rolex imitation said:
imitation rolex…
But ask the discerning male and he will tell you more about these duplicate timepieces…
April 24, 2013 at 8:04 am, bike racks for cars said:
Alita Hamonds…
Alita Hamonds…
April 25, 2013 at 4:04 am, Cheap dental implants said:
obviously cherished blog…
EXCELLENT Destination. kudos designed meant for publish.. more spending some time.. ……
April 25, 2013 at 5:12 am, buy clomid said:
…
[...]although websites we backlink to beneath are considerably not connected to ours, we really feel they are essentially worth a go by way of, so have a look[...]…
April 26, 2013 at 2:10 am, Megan Fox Hot said:
Whispering Misty…
So sorry you are going to pass up the workshop!…
April 26, 2013 at 7:19 am, buy champix said:
…
[...]Every the moment inside a while we select blogs that we read. Listed beneath are the newest sites that we select [...]…
April 26, 2013 at 1:16 pm, home water distillers said:
Amazing Blog…
Wonderful blog. Many cheers again. Fantastic….
April 26, 2013 at 11:40 pm, foor proocessor reviews said:
Shawnta Keser…
Shawnta Keser…
April 27, 2013 at 8:03 am, buy synthroid said:
…
[...]usually posts some very fascinating stuff like this. If you are new to this site[...]…
April 27, 2013 at 8:08 am, Megan Fox Hot said:
The Birch of the Shadow…
I believe there could be considered a couple duplicates, but an exceedingly useful listing! I have tweeted this. Many thanks for sharing!…
April 28, 2013 at 1:30 am, Megan Fox Hot said:
Whispering Misty…
So sorry you’ll skip the workshop!…
April 28, 2013 at 8:50 am, beats by dre said:
Just Browsing…
While I was browsing today I saw a excellent article concerning…
April 28, 2013 at 6:56 pm, apartments in Ankeny IA said:
Whispering Misty…
So sorry you may skip the workshop!…
April 30, 2013 at 7:26 am, As in well-nigh over-the-counter industries, the cookware industry are constantly coming out with new lines and innovations said:
I recommend to you to look for a site where there will be many articles on a theme interesting you….
It is a pity, that now I can not express – it is compelled to leave. I will return – I will necessarily express the opinion on this question….
May 02, 2013 at 11:26 am, "customs house bar said:
“old customs house…
Wohh just what I was looking for, appreciate it for putting up”…
May 04, 2013 at 3:12 pm, 罗塞塔博客 said:
mbt mens kabisa 11…
I keep listening to the news lecture about getting free online grant applications so I have been looking around for the top site to get one. Could you advise me please, where could i find some?…
May 05, 2013 at 7:04 am, cloud b twilight said:
we enjoy it…
My spouse and I absolutely love your blog and find a lot of your post’s to be exactly I’m looking for. Does one offer guest writers to write content available for you? I wouldn’t mind producing a post or elaborating on a number of the subjects you w…
May 05, 2013 at 11:13 pm, All about personal finance success said:
Wikia…
Wika linked to this site…
May 06, 2013 at 6:06 am, Nike Shoes Sale said:
Christian Louboutin sale…
While I was browsing today I noticed a excellent post concerning Christian Louboutin…
May 07, 2013 at 8:04 am, visit the website said:
Whispering Misty…
So sorry you can skip the workshop!…
May 07, 2013 at 9:12 am, this site said:
The Birch of the Shadow…
I think there may perhaps be a few duplicates, but an exceedingly helpful listing! I have tweeted this. Many thanks for sharing!…
May 07, 2013 at 11:43 pm, Are you suffering from eczema? Does your skin itch constantly to the point of burning? It is a fact that eczema is an uncomfortable disease which requires prompt said:
Bravo, what words…, a brilliant idea…
In it something is. Now all became clear, many thanks for an explanation….
May 08, 2013 at 7:12 am, "that cleaning service said:
“commercial cleaning new york ny…
Great post are you looking for real estate in Casselberry FL? Learn where the deals are get REO lists and find town homes for sale in Oviedo”…
May 08, 2013 at 12:23 pm, "home loans for bad credit said:
“nova home loans…
You seem to be very professional in the way you write”…
May 08, 2013 at 3:26 pm, "make money writing said:
“how to make money with money…
I likewise conceive thus, perfectly written post”…
May 09, 2013 at 3:41 am, "how to make money from home said:
“how to make money online…
Some times its a pain in the ass to read what blog owners wrote but this site is really user pleasant!”…
May 09, 2013 at 3:49 am, iphone 4 screen repairs said:
repair iphone 5 melbourne…
A real destroyed iPhone is really a inadequate iPhone. Great quite easily not easy to help to make points work collectors iPhone show is normally broken or possibly damaged….
May 09, 2013 at 4:02 am, "802.11 wireless networks said:
“Perfect piece of work you have done, this site is really cool with great info…
Perfect piece of work you have done, this site is really cool with great info”…
May 09, 2013 at 3:03 pm, "real estate seo said:
“florida seo…
Hi this is somewhat of off topic but I was wondering if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding knowledge so I wanted to get guidance from someone with experience. Any help would …
May 10, 2013 at 2:30 am, "last minute cruise deals said:
“cruise deals port canaveral…
Dead written subject matter, Really enjoyed reading through”…
May 11, 2013 at 12:33 am, "cash for cars said:
“andrew reynolds scam…
That’s a wonderful event How can one support it financially?”…
May 11, 2013 at 2:24 am, hermes bags said:
hermes bags…
http://955.cc/dsFB hermes baggage accessible in that malaysia…
May 12, 2013 at 4:51 am, "home based bussiness said:
“small bussiness loans…
hello, your website is really good We do appreciate your give good results”…
May 12, 2013 at 7:25 am, "online home business ideas said:
“free home business leads…
I gotta favorite this website it seems very helpful”…
May 13, 2013 at 2:54 am, "working from home vacancies uk said:
“uk jobs working from home…
Some times its a pain in the ass to read what people wrote but this website is real user genial !”…
May 13, 2013 at 4:07 am, "andrew reynolds baker 3 said:
“andrew reynolds baker 3…
Regards for this terrific post, I am glad I discovered this site on yahoo”…
May 13, 2013 at 11:18 am, dental implants said:
Sites we Like……
[...] Every once in a while we choose blogs that we read. Listed below are the latest sites that we choose [...]……
May 13, 2013 at 11:17 pm, Global Test Market Review said:
Whispering Misty…
So sorry you can expect to skip the workshop!…
May 14, 2013 at 10:08 am, "customs house inn said:
“customs house library…
Some genuinely interesting information, well written and broadly user pleasant”…
May 18, 2013 at 1:47 pm, игра престолов торрент said:
Игра престолов скачать торрент…
«Игра престолов» (Game of Thrones) – американский драматический телесериал в жанре фэнтези, созданный по мотивам цикла романов «Песнь Льда и Огня» писателя Джорджа Мартина….