Florida’s fluctuating job market will continue to stymie population growth for the next few years, according to recent findings by the University of Florida, but in good news for housing, population growth will rev up again in the near future.
“The recovery is very slow, and that’s why we think Florida’s population growth will be slow,” said Stan Smith, director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. His longer-range forecast is more optimistic, however. He said the state should add 2.52 million people between 2010 and 2020, 2.55 million people between 2020 and 2030 and 2.2 million people between 2030 and 2040.
If Smith is correct, that sort of population growth would permit housing construction to rise to more familiar levels by 2020. He expects statewide housing starts to increase from 40,000 a year now to 150,000 a year in a few years. [more]

According to a recent report from the University of Florida, the gulf oil
spill could have an adverse effect on Florida home prices. “It is possible that
prices could decline further, particularly if the effects of the oil
spill ultimately reach the west coast of Florida, or if perceptions of
these effects remain negative,” said Chris McCarty, the UF survey research director. According to McCarty, evidence suggests that future reports of
declines in taxable value could be attributable to a decline in
tourism and caution on the part of Florida consumers, unsure about the
potential fallout from the spill. [Palm
Beach Post]

[more]

Davie Town Administrator Gary Shimun announced that a potential
purchaser has emerged for land the town owns in what was the Palma Nova
mobile home park. According to Shimun, an unnamed developer intends to
buy 25 acres for a warehouse distribution center. The town bought the
parcel of land in December from owner Austin Forman for $12.5 million,
looking to place a water plant and a park on the site. The town of
Davie has been busy buying land in the area, having also bought 14
acres a mile away for $6.2 million from the University of Florida in
February. Davie has spent $1 million to date on planning and design for
the UF site. Earlier this week, town council members debated a plan to
build a $120 million water plant on the UF parcel, ultimately passing
the measure 4-1. [SFBJ]

[more]

While Florida’s real estate recovery may be tenuous, the public’s consensus is one of cautious optimism, according to a first-quarter survey conducted by the University of Florida’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies. Despite a 12.3 percent unemployment rate in March, respondents said that they believe the current real estate market — in both the residential and commercial sectors — has hit bottom. But this doesn’t mean it’s time to throw a party quite yet, said Timothy Becker, director of the Bergstrom Center. “One of our respondents summed it up by stating that ‘if anything, we will get less bad,’” Becker said. “Florida has hit bottom and is in the process of stabilizing across most property types.” TRD

A statewide survey of real estate professionals puts unemployment at the top of a list of stumbling blocks to a robust market recovery. Since unemployed people don’t need office space, don’t shop, don’t pay rent and don’t buy houses, one respondent said, it’s unlikely to mean a serious recovery is in the offing. Reactions from 319 participants in 13 urban regions of the state representing reactions for 15 types of property were largely unified: more vacancies and decreasing rents will hit commercial and residential real estate for some time. The current unemployment rate of 11.8 percent must decline before people can start participating in the market again, said Tim Becker, director of the University of Florida’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies in Gainesville, which conducted the survey. [GlobeSt]

Call it South Florida’s year-end home sale surge. The number of
residential properties under contract to be sold in South Florida
continued to rise, nearly doubling from this time last year, according
to a new report from Miami-Dade County-based real estate consulting
firm Condo Vultures Realty. The report provides strong evidence that
more buyers than ever in the tri-county region are responding to the
raft of deeply discounted residential properties and are taking
advantage of the federal government’s homebuyer tax credits. Scott
Agran, broker and owner of Lang Realty in Boca Raton, said his agency
saw a “push” by buyers over the last month because they knew the tax
credits were set to expire at the end of November. Then two weeks ago,
President Barack Obama extended until April 30, 2010, the $8,000 tax
credit for first-time homebuyers and added a $6,500 tax credit for
buyers relocating after living in a home for at least five years.
[more]

Florida’s population declined last year for the first time in 63 years
as the steep global recession put the brakes on migration here and sent
many residents packing, new University of Florida research shows. Florida lost 58,000 residents compared to a year earlier, as the
nation’s fourth largest state reported a population of 18.7 million
people. The number of Floridians lost represents a city roughly the
size of Pensacola, Homestead or Kissimmee. “It’s really both a cause and an effect,” said Stan Smith, director of
the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of
Florida. “The recession is causing people to leave and this is an
effect of the recession.” [more]