City sees record home price drop
January 27, 2009 11:30AM
New York City posted its largest monthly home price decline on record
in November 2008, according to S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Index
data released today.
Home prices within a 50-mile radius of New York City fell 1.6 percent
between October and November, the largest drop in over 20 years, and
8.6 percent year-over-year, according to the index. Since the data does
not include condo or co-op units, the report primarily reflects home
prices in the outer boroughs, Connecticut, New Jersey and Westchester
County.
But the New York metropolitan area still has the highest index value,
at 186.81, of any of the 20 cities measured by the index. This
indicates that homes in the area have held their value better than
homes in the other areas. The index was set at a base value of 100 in
January 2000, meaning that homes in the New York metropolitan area have
appreciated 86.81 percent since then.
Of the 20 cities surveyed, seven others -- Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte,
Chicago, Dallas, Portland and Seattle -- also posted their largest
recorded monthly declines in November. TRD
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Comments
Anonymous
Tip of the iceberg....hopefully manhattan becomes afforedable again
Comment #1 Posted By: Anonymous 01/27/09
Anonymous
Wishful thinking my friend, if only your salary increase faster than the home price, then you can afford Manhattan
Comment #2 Posted By: Anonymous 01/27/09
Anonymous
That would mean that your salary decreases slower than home prices do. What would Manhattan be without people spending more than they make to live in "the best city in the world". I live in Manhattan, but am still astonished how fooled some people are about its greatness. Can't wait until the majority of those flakes get a reality check.
Comment #3 Posted By: Anonymous 01/27/09
Anonymous
#2, go back to your 2006 time bubble. Ain't no such thing as increasing home prices no mo'.
Comment #4 Posted By: Anonymous 01/27/09
Anonymous
just wait for the city to go bankrupt, like they did in the seventies and you can pick up a brownstone for a mil.
Comment #5 Posted By: Anonymous 01/27/09
Anonymous
50 miles is a pretty broad swath when you consider the differences in the commute from Bonxville (18 miles) versus White Plains (31 miles) versus Croton on Hudson (40 miles) and Stony Point (42 miles) not to mention how much easier it is to commute from West Chester than the hell of Long isalnd or Northern New Jersey. Seems like they need to have smaller geographic areas when dealing with the Manhattan suburbs.
Comment #6 Posted By: Anonymous 01/27/09
Richard Crranium
My estimate for Manhattan is for prices to drop 40 - 50% over the next three years. Prices will revert to the long-term rent/own and income/price ratios, especially given the bubble prices. Even with lower prices, buyers will be reluctant to step up as real interest rates will be very high as price deflation with a levered investment creates a highly-negative expected return. This estimate does not discount possible losses in services and increases in crime, nor does it account for possible massive job losses and migration out of the city.
Comment #7 Posted By: Richard Crranium 01/27/09
Anonymous
Re: Tip of the iceberg....hopefully manhattan becomes afforedable again Don't count on it.
Comment #8 Posted By: Anonymous 01/27/09
Anonymous
....and didn't Goldman Sachs state that oil would be at $200 a barrel by now ? Missed that one somewhat.
Comment #9 Posted By: Anonymous 01/27/09
Anonymous
"affordable" is a relative term. I define affordable as a nice one bedroom withing walking distance of mid-town business districts for $1400 to $1500 a month like when I first came here 21 years ago. Sadly I don't think that will happen and I will be stuck in this market-rate studio till I leave in a box.
Comment #10 Posted By: Anonymous 01/27/09
Anonymous
Affordable for most in this place mean cheap enough that you can pay your mortgage/rent while funding living expenses with credit or that 'expected' bonus ... well at least until now.
Comment #11 Posted By: Anonymous 01/28/09
S M
If the US Government is planning to print money to stimulate growth and stabilize home prices, there is talk of possible inflation in the medium term that might establish a new "floor" price level. We had a boom with 40 year high construction pace for 3 years at most, now the lowest permits in 50 years, likely to stay that way for 3 years while jobs return (through other industries, not necessarily Wall St.) so the excess inventory problem might get solved that way. It is all deflation now, but IF inflation does hit in the next 12-18 months for goods and eventually services once jobs return, it'll pick up as fast as the economy went sour.
Comment #12 Posted By: S M 01/28/09