Manhattan home prices down around 20%

December 16, 2008 04:37PM By C. J. Hughes
Jonathan Miller


The most rosy-eyed brokers said it couldn't happen here. They said Manhattan was a different beast, and that its supply of apartments was kept in check by the island's rocky shores, so demand for those units would always be strong, and prices elevated. They pointed out Manhattan's sales prices hitting an all-time high last spring, months after the national housing market began collapsing, as a sign of its fundamental resilience.

But it turns out they may have overstated things.

As anecdotal evidence about fall sales seeps out, well before brokerage reports about fourth-quarter transactions are released, evidence is mounting that not only have Manhattan housing prices slipped, they have done so by around 20 percent, which is a much more precipitous plunge than expected.

"Both residential and commercial real estate markets have softened substantially since the last report, most notably in Manhattan," said the edition of the Federal Reserve Board's "beige book" that came out earlier this month.

The report, which looks at market conditions in various cities eight times a year, found that "the prices of Manhattan co-ops and condos are reported to have fallen by 15 to 20 percent since mid-summer, though it is hard to get a clear handle on prices due to thin volume. Much of the recent activity is reportedly from desperate sellers."

Jonathan Miller, president of appraisal firm Miller Samuel, which provided data for the Fed's analysis based on contract prices after a series of confidence-shaking bank failures and federal bailouts, said the drops are somewhat unsurprising. Prices historically fall after sales volume slows, and volume has ebbed considerably in recent months.

Indeed, sales have been off about 28 percent for the first three quarters of this year, versus the same year-ago period, Miller said.

"A drop in transactions always precedes a drop in prices, because it leads to [an]  increase in inventory," he said. "It's really a canary in the subway."

And no sector of Manhattan seems immune, including high-end units, or those priced upwards of $10 million, which had previously propped up the market's average prices, brokers said. Prices of resales, as opposed to new development, which had shown some resistance to price dips, now also seem to be slipping, brokers added.

Of course, many of those contracts won't close until this winter, so the data is in many ways a preview of what brokerages will announce in April, after the first quarter closes.

When they are revealed, the market could deteriorate further, said Noah Rosenblatt, who publishes the Web site UrbanDigs, and who in November concluded that prices were down 20 percent from their 2007 peak, based on his own anecdotal reporting from his real estate business.

That downward pressure will result because potential buyers will suddenly have useful hard-and-fast yardsticks by which to base their offers. Once they realize a co-op in a particular Upper East Side high-rise sold for 20 percent lower than its $1 million asking price, at $800,000, they might submit a lowered bid, too.

"Just like in the derivatives market, there will be price discoveries, and new benchmarks will be set," Rosenblatt said. "It could create an adverse feedback loop."

Not all brokers are convinced that sales prices have slipped so far. Some also say that the market may have bottomed out in late November, as open-house attendance seems to have crept up since then, in historically quiet December.

And although end-of-year bonuses for Wall Street workers, who make up a quarter of most brokers' clients, could be off as much as 50 percent this year, they will still be handed out, leading to some hope for January.


Comments

Anonymous

Very much like the early 90s. New York was the last to be effected and the last to resurge.

Comment #1 Posted By: Anonymous 12/16/08

Anonymous

the bloodletting commences now. Stand aside.

Comment #2 Posted By: Anonymous 12/16/08

Anonymous

also seems its been more sudden in NYC area .. more gradual in the other parts.. but that can also mean a more sudden positive move too when things begin to recover (or when inflation sets in which it will soon!)

Comment #3 Posted By: Anonymous 12/16/08

Anonymous

Kudos to Noah. He called it. One of the few honest brokers around

Comment #4 Posted By: Anonymous 12/16/08

Anonymous

how could you release this information at 4:37 p.m.? brokers and the rest of the world have hit the local happy hour to drown out their sorrows. bah humbug to you!

Comment #5 Posted By: Anonymous 12/16/08

Anonymous

noah's no expert. he entered the business after '00. has no standing or historical perspective in the biz.

Comment #6 Posted By: Anonymous 12/16/08

Anonymous

comment # 3 states the following "also seems its been more sudden in NYC area .. more gradual in the other parts.. but that can also mean a more sudden positive move too when things begin to recover (or when inflation sets in which it will soon!)" When inflation sets in home prices will continue to depreciate and perhaps snowball on the way down. The first set of home price depreciation was due to unrealistic price appreciation. The second wave will come from job losses. Third component to compund price depreciation will be hyperinflation. Do not expect to see any home appreciation within the next 5 years minimum. We will continue to see price depreciation over the next several years. Home price appreciation was approximately 30% from 1989 to 1999, thats when we had a deficit which was trillions of dollars less then the present with very healthy employment levels. Expect a total of at least 40% depreciation in housing within the next 18 months or so.

Comment #7 Posted By: Anonymous 12/16/08

Anonymous

@#7 if inflation is caused by the devaluation of the dollar, then home prices.. and everything else for that matter.. the real VALUE of the stuff.. homes, food, cars, services, whatever.. will remain the same and may yes even decrease in REAL value.. but in NOMINAL price they will go up (cuz the value of dollars will go down).. across the board So if you can buy something expensive, say a house or a car or a boat whatever and take out a loan on it.. you are effectively locking in todays un-inflated dollars.. so when you need to pay off that loan it will be easier to in real dollars.. DEFICITS dont cause monetary inflation, but cheap money (i.e. 0% rate) and too much money being printed and loaned DOES>>> Say u buy a house for a million bucks today putting down 20%. We inflate due to monetary oversupply 10% a year over next 5 years = 50% after 5 years from today. So in 5 years your dollar goes 1/2 as far as today.. if a loaf of bread today is $2.00 in 5 years it will be $4.00 for the same bread etc. So now your house let's say it's lost 10% REAL value so say $900k in todays dollars = $1.8M in 5 years from now dollars. Your mortgage is still $800k in TODAYs dollars.. which is now that same as $400k in 5 yr from now VALUE wrap ur head around it.. it really works.. after all great inflations it's been the landowners, landlords, and farmers who come out ahead and those who lend money, save, or work wages get stuffed

Comment #8 Posted By: Anonymous 12/16/08

Anonymous

Excuse me , commenter #6: I am a highly qualified sideline-sitting buyer who cashed out last year and am sitting on piles 'o dough and a perfect credit rating (if I even need it, would probably pay in cash). Because of Noah's blog and commentary, I can wholly assure you when the time comes to buy I will ask him, and only him to represent me. Yes, I will soooooo be bypassing all of you other self-serving money-grubbing double-talking RE "veterans" for Noah's straight talk and trustworthy guidance.

Comment #9 Posted By: Anonymous 12/16/08

delant

Mr. comment #9. "When the time come" - you think prices will drop to 50 %? This is the right time. Smart buyers that have smart brokers buy now. Why? ask your Noah. The young generation of brokers are straight forward and honest and are more hungry and want to proof themselves. Unfortunately a lot of people get scared or go around their backs. Specially people that think things like "self-serving money-grubbing double-talking".Those are the most Untrusted buyers, time wasters, information-grabber-and-call-dodger rude-and-snicky. I think you should wait more till the market gets back on his feet and prices will turn more firm. Maybe you will be lucky and find a pre forclosure FSBO or you will wait a decade till market falls again. Ho Ho Ho, in all means.

Comment #10 Posted By: delant 12/17/08

Anonymous

why do buyers need to be trustworthy. They are the ones paying for the service.

Comment #11 Posted By: Anonymous 12/17/08

Anonymous

The person who made the long-winded inflation commentary would be right, but he neglected to mention real interest rates. It doesn't matter if the loan has a low principal. If inflation is high, interest rates will be high. If the intest rate is above inflation, it still costs money to carry the loan. However, if you get a low fixed rate, you may make out if inflation rises. Then the bank is paying you to take its money :)

Comment #12 Posted By: Anonymous 12/17/08

Anonymous

Buyers do not pay for RE services.

Comment #13 Posted By: Anonymous 12/17/08

Anonymous

i am a broker #13, buyer always pays in the end... price of commission is included in the sale price. we didnt just fall off the turnip truck.

Comment #14 Posted By: Anonymous 12/17/08

UrbanDigs

#6 - Name one other broker that has detailed this credit crisis since mid 2007, and explained how and why it would ultimately affect Manhattan real estate. Every broker, every one, argued with me and took the other side. They said things like: a) foreigners will save us b) weak dollar will save us, tied to above c) its an island, no supply will save us d) sideline money theory will save us, as if we fall 5%, buyers will swoop in e) high end products will never go out of demand f) buy now or be priced out forever just to name a few of the general broker babble that almost every broker doled out. True, I am not a veteran of Manhattan residential sales, with only 4 years of experience, but almost all brokers are salesman, and there is a small group that are both exceptionally good at what they do and exceptionally savvy about the macro world around them. The majority of the rest did NOT see this storm coming until way way late, and advised their clients as such. Almost all brokers disrespected this credit crisis or flat out did not understand what was going on

Comment #15 Posted By: UrbanDigs 12/17/08

Anonymous

#14. I am not sure what Real Estate school you used for your license but that's not true. In fact, My buyers get tremendous discounts of the price and closing costs in specific buildings where I have sold numerous amount of units. They would never get those discounts if they approached by themselves. And if commission is included in sale price that falls on the seller, and if his time is worth money, He saves a lot of time and money by using a broker to sell his property at agreed price. If a buyer and a seller agrees on a price, and they are happy with it, it doesn't matter, the seller agreed to a % of commission and he most likely took it under consideration when accepted the offer. The buyer had nothing to do with it. quote: "price of commission is included in the sale price." Maybe with NO FEE apartments for rent.

Comment #16 Posted By: Anonymous 12/17/08

Anonymous

I live in NYC (rent) and am a residential developer in Westchester. When Westchester started hitting the skids in '06, I told my broker friends it was just a matter of time before NYC was hit. They all said Manhattan was insulated, buy before prices go up more. They went up a while longer, but I kept saying it was just a matter of time. The perfect storm has now hit Manhattan - Wall St has collapsed, foreigners are done, job losses, etc. It's going to get much uglier over the next two years.

Comment #17 Posted By: Anonymous 12/17/08

UrbanDigs

Just to clarify, that I dont consider myself a power broker in the sense that I have exquisite marketing skills above & beyond every other broker out there from 15 years in this business. I dont. But I have sold every property I was asked to sell (except for one who I got 100K over ask for and decided not to sell at that time), and know how to do my job. The point is, in terms of macro, at least I know whats going on in the world around me at an early point. To me, this type of consulting is very valuable when compared to the fact that most brokers have a two tiered approach to working with potential sellers: 1) GET THE LISTING!!! 2) WORK ON PRICE REDUCTIONS TO MOVE THE PROPERTY FAST! I recieved about 12 calls in the past 6 months or sop from sellers who fell for this, and asked me to tell them what market value may be for their property. So, understanding the curve, and the world around you, keeps you ahead of it, not behind it.

Comment #18 Posted By: UrbanDigs 12/17/08

Anonymous

This is just the beginning folks. I'm a broker, I was here in the early 90s. How does 40-50 cents on the dollar sound? Manhattan apartment prices were no different than the Madoff ponzi, now the apartment ponzi/pyramid is collapsing. One BR coops should trade in the $300-400 range maximum. One BR condos should trade $400-600 maximum. Anything more is a ponzi--period.

Comment #19 Posted By: Anonymous 12/17/08

Anonymous

#17 As a broker, Every day I hope it is the bottom of that hole we fell into and from today it will get better. But with that, I am still making a lot deal's and positive about the new year. People that said that Manhattan is protected was just naive and never thought that it will be so bad. But honestly, if you tell me you predicted that, I will not believe you. Nobody got prepared for that, we knew something is coming but never imagined in that scale. Trillions have been vanished from the earth, The biggest players all over sudden became small players trying to survive. People went to jail for god sakes. And yet, I don't think the Manhattan real estate market is that bad, it is hurt, but not that bad. Buyers have more supply to choose from and some owners that are eager to sell because they got hurt from the situation will consider low balls. But those who didn't get hurt and are in good shape, will just wait and or rent it out in the minwhile. Actually those who make's the market seem so bad are the brokers that push owners to reduce prices and buyers to throw low balls.

Comment #20 Posted By: Anonymous 12/17/08

Anonymous

#19 Are you talking about Queens or Brooklyn?

Comment #21 Posted By: Anonymous 12/17/08

Anonymous

Please people...let's not sit here and praise Noah Rosenblatt! He may have more integrity than most real estate agents, but this guy is all about feigning objective commentary on real estate as a means towards making money. This guy was what before He went to CitiHabitats? An analyst? A low level trader? He's used a bunch of mumbo gumbo market speak to act as if he's got some crisp insight into market performance that others do not. It's not true, and those who follow this guy are just plain old "dumb money". This guy is just another huckster with a blog.

Comment #22 Posted By: Anonymous 12/17/08

UrbanDigs

huckster huh! Nice. Like that one. Too bad that dumb money didnt listen when I said "I do know that the core of the credit markets are undergoing serious distress right now and it's got to trigger some type of adjustment in equity markets in the near future" on Oct 18th, 2007. Dow was at like 13,600 then. Luckily, I got out and got short. The money made was certainly 'dumb' though!

Comment #23 Posted By: UrbanDigs 12/17/08

UrbanDigs

One last thing. So we HATE brokers because they lie, they care only about their commission, they are overpaid salesman, and they are clueless about the world around them. Then we HATE brokers who explain why Manhattan will fall and why the credit crisis is so much more severe than most economists, analysts say. Got it!@

Comment #24 Posted By: UrbanDigs 12/17/08

Anonymous

It will be interesting to see people eventually agreeing to pay a premium over monthly mortgage expenses to RENT an equivalent unit, as a hedge against a declining property value! Say, around 2010, people will be thinking "I'd rather rent this turkey from a bitter buyer at $3000/month than pay mortgage, taxes, deduction, whatever, at net $2800 per month, because in two years I can buy it for >$2500 month mortgage, etc." The renter's premium WILL happen here, and it will be an interesting psychological flip.

Comment #25 Posted By: Anonymous 12/17/08

Anonymous

Given recent Wall Street infidelity (Madoff and others) congrats Noah or shame the industry that the bar is so low we applaud someone telling the truth. I have been a broker for 4 yrs and am in a unique situation, without detail, is not a bad spot to be in. I got this position by being honest, hard working and knowing more then the next guy. There are plenty of brokers who act with responsibly. The fact that Noah yells his opinion to the world doesn’t make him the messiah of NYC RE. Today people read headlines and jump to conclusions. Often this causes fear and confidence issues from prospective buyers and sellers. I am for honesty and integrity but the media, web blogs and newspapers are weapons and used incorrectly or for the wrong reasons can cause an adverse effect. I hope you got the accolades you were hoping for Noah bravo! Next time, think globally and act locally. If you were really sincere about honesty and truth in our industry stop blatantly using your heroic intentions to attract customers. Brokers are not all bad, some know as much as you, we just don’t broadcast it.

Comment #26 Posted By: Anonymous 12/17/08

Waiting for the dust to clear

"Mr. comment #9. "When the time come" - you think prices will drop to 50 %? This is the right time. Smart buyers that have smart brokers buy now. " Yes, it's ALWAYS the best time to buy for you guys. That's how you make you money. Get ready - 50% may be coming, fella.

Comment #27 Posted By: Waiting for the dust to clear 12/17/08

Anonymous

YES OK %50 GIVE ME A CALL WHEN YOU SEE THAT I WILL BUY ALL THE UNITS AT %50 HAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA You just knocked me of my Eurostyle Bungie Executive Massage Office Chair.

Comment #28 Posted By: Anonymous 12/17/08

UrbanDigs

"Today people read headlines and jump to conclusions. Often this causes fear and confidence issues from prospective buyers and sellers. I am for honesty and integrity but the media, web blogs and newspapers are weapons and used incorrectly or for the wrong reasons can cause an adverse effect." Oh for crying out loud. 1) when did I ever call myself a messiah? 2) are we now claiming that the Media is bringing down Manhattan real estate? Every downturn brings out the same thing. Its the media and the blogs that spread lies and rumors and make buyers go away! yea right! It has nothing to do with credit deflation, broken wall street, broken securitization model, negative wealth effect, end to the unsustainable housing boom in Manhattan, insolvent banks, etc.. Your right, brokers are NOT all bad, and I never stated they were. I simply stated that most brokers did not understand why this credit crisis would become as severe as it did. Nothing more.

Comment #29 Posted By: UrbanDigs 12/17/08

Anonymous

Any analysis of any transaction in Manhattan real estate needs to be done on a case by case basis. There is too much diversity to make sweeping generalizations just like when median and average prices were up courtesy of a few buildings. Closing prices are starting to come in, courtesy of the rebny sharing sytem ( which can be verified on acris) from firms from contracts negotiated and signed signed in late september and early october 2008. There are some down from 2007, flat to 2007, slightly ahead of inflation from 2006 and 2007, down somewhat from beginning of year and flat to beginning of year, these are in traditional UES, UWS, Village neighborhood/buildings, mostly co-ops, with long track records so you can trace a given line's or size ranges sales history over the years. Just like every cookie cutter post-war didn't see the same double digit gains as some buildings and neighborhoods in 2006 and 2007, not every building and neighborhood will see the same magnitude of decline, and some may not see a decline other than inflation. And yes I am a broker, so consider all the baby-eating/blood sucking comments made.

Comment #30 Posted By: Anonymous 12/17/08

Anonymous

Urban-i am comment 26 If you dont think the media has an effect on the market or customer thought process why do you participate in it? Either its effective tool or its not. My assumption is you feel its effective in helping steer consumers. Now who is naive...

Comment #31 Posted By: Anonymous 12/17/08

UrbanDigs

#31 - Well my feelings on media's effect on consumer psychology and the reasons why I blog are two different things. If you are asking me about both, here is how I feel (I'll have to make into 2 comments): On Media's Effect on Consumer Psychology - Absolutely! You are right, there IS an effect. But it is only that, an EFFECT, it is not the cause. Ace Greenberg recently stated, "there is no more Wall Street, That model just doesn’t work because it’s at the mercy of rumors." While that may be true, in my opinion its more about positions held when the market rolls over on you that makes or breaks a wall st firm. Media REPORTS on markets and is often lagging. It doesn't CAUSE. When Man RE was rising, media enhanced it. It didnt cause it, it only enhanced it. Different fundamentals caused it. Same thing on the down cycle. Man RE is falling for valid fundamental/macro reasons, and its fall is likely to be enhanced a bit by media as reports come out. Since its two sided, you cant lay blame

Comment #32 Posted By: UrbanDigs 12/17/08

UrbanDigs

Why I Blog - I really enjoy it. I thought there was a void for a voice like this from a broker in the Manhattan real estate market, that discusses macro economic trends and how it may affect the housing market here. Im a trader first, re agent second, so my experience falls more onto finance/trading. I also felt it worthy to create a journal of experiences, tips, tricks, trends, real time thoughts, on buying & selling manhattan real estate. What better way than to blog? It allows me to get personal with readers, stay up to date, and gain access to an audience that may want to do business with me down the road. Some brokers farm buildings, others create a database network of friends/family and attend networking events to build their business. I blog. And I meet great clients, and I can talk freely, honestly, and openly because I know that they read the site and know my feelings in general anyway. In the end, they decide to work with me on their own and often, I find myself consulting for free. I enjoy it. And the business is a great bonus.

Comment #33 Posted By: UrbanDigs 12/17/08

UrbanDigs

#30 - you are very right. I actually gave a range of 15-20% to the reporter of this article but they only stated '20%'. But this is based on what I am both seeing & hearing from many brokers I keep in touch with. Clearly, no one broker can generalize the entire Manhattan marketplace. And 100% agreed, that it will continue to be a range bound correction due to the vastly different types of products out there, especially those units with premium sell side features such as park views, large outdoor spaces, pre-war woodburning fireplaces, etc.. But I don't think what I said here today will be reflected until 1Q of 2009 is released in April 2009

Comment #34 Posted By: UrbanDigs 12/17/08

Anonymous

This is all just anecdotal evidence. It's not real

Comment #35 Posted By: Anonymous 12/17/08

Anonymous

The only thing I can say about your blogging is- Opinions are great and you are entitled to yours. my issue is you feel you are a neutral info portal, like some man of the people helping customers see the light in the dark real estate world. You have a vested finacial interest in what people take away from the info you provide. That doesnt make you a blogger it makes you an INFOMERCIAL or ADVATORIAL. Its like tylenol offering patients info on headaches while the logo is at the bottom of the page. Sure the info is helpful but the motivations are not legit. Dont make yourself something you arent...you are not a blogger or info portal, you are an ADVERTISMENT for yourself, without the logo.

Comment #36 Posted By: Anonymous 12/17/08

Anonymous

oh Urban- I am comment 36 and 26

Comment #37 Posted By: Anonymous 12/17/08

Anonymous

Urban #30 Here, thank you. Another thing that needs to be rectified to give people proper advice is the market reports for all the large firms are far too broad geographically, and lump too many disparate apartments in the same category. For example "Downtown" is defined as south of 34th Street; to compare a west village transaction in price with something in Kips Bay produces a basically meaningless statistic;likewise for the Upeer East Side to cite statistics that are a composite of Fifth Avenue in th 60's as well as York Avnue in the 80's really doesn't give a useful statistic. Further what is a "two bedroom" it is not defined iin any of the reports, does that catgory include the pre-war classic 6's and are those transactions combined with the plain vanilla 1000 square foot post wars to produce statistics on "Two Bedrooms" which once again doesn't give a meaningful number; even lumping together a pre-war classic 5 with th post war two bedrooms has the same result. Just a few thoughts that have always troubled me when reading those reports.

Comment #38 Posted By: Anonymous 12/17/08

UrbanDigs

#37- All I can say, is with all due respect, are you a new reader of UD? If not, you should know me way better then that. Everything I do is in a manner totally opposite of an ad, and I never, ever promote my own business in any post in any way, shape or form. The only part of UD.com that promotes my business is very simple SELLER SERVICES link in the picture box. I have had countless conversations with UD readers who were potential buyers & sellers, giving my honest, straight forward opinion who ultimately decided NOT to buy or sell. I am NOT a salesman. I am not the best seller pitcher. I honestly am shocked to hear this, because if you read my site since early 2006 or so, you know me way better than that. I believe in transparency, honesty, integrity, being ahead of the curve, real time data, and learning. I spent thousands adding real time charts to UD.com for readers to get a better grip on whats happening. Any business I get is from loyal readers who appreciate the time I put into it.

Comment #39 Posted By: UrbanDigs 12/17/08

UrbanDigs

#38 - couldnt agree more. I have talked with CEO of streeteasy a few times about this and I believe he told me that is one area they are trying to improve for the future. There is no public MLS here, so data is not so easy to come by unless you strike a deal with olr, realplus, realtymax, etc. and these guys will NOT work with you, trust me I tried! So we do what we can to improve for the consumer. I think in the next year or two transparency will improve. Slowdowns bring innovation and inefficient models tend to be phased out. I think this will take place for Manhattan real estate and the brokerage model here. One way to solve the other problem is to do it by # of rooms, as Classic 6 is 6 rooms while a JR4 may be marketed as a conv 2BR, messing the stats. All great ideas. Keep it coming!!! I have my issues with this industry and its inefficiencies. They should be enhanced

Comment #40 Posted By: UrbanDigs 12/17/08

Anonymous

Urban #30 and #38 here, will e-mail you ideas on your blogsite.

Comment #41 Posted By: Anonymous 12/17/08

UrbanDigs

k, Ill check tomorrow am. Thx

Comment #42 Posted By: UrbanDigs 12/17/08

Frank

#6 UrbanDigs has been one of the most honest & accurate bloggers i've come across in the last 2yrs. I've always been of the same opinions, if not harsher when it came to NYC RE. Don't doubt him or envy the precision. Just accept it and move on.

Comment #43 Posted By: Frank 12/18/08

Anonymous

#19 - you are dead on. my favorite past time is counting the number of brokers who think prices are just a function of what the last buyer paid versus what the current buyer can afford. all one has to do is back in what the typical buyer can afford with current jumbo terms. Cash buyers by definition pay less than what a debt financed buyer will pay. It's just funny how folks think that prices are somehow disconnected to the overall economy. Lastly, Noah rocks.

Comment #44 Posted By: Anonymous 12/18/08

Anonymous

This should not be a popularity contest. Few predicted this: anyone who did should be praised. Seriously praised. But celebrations should be left to professional athletes. The OFFERING prices of apts on the high end are -25% from the last. For every distresse seller, there are 3 employed, wealthy, smart sellers.

Comment #45 Posted By: Anonymous 12/18/08

Anonymous

This is anonymous 19 again. I'm talking Manhattan prices--and you know it. I'm a broker, I participated in a Ponzi scheme, so did all of you, selling this junk garbage real estate, the only reason we could do this was because there was one more greedy fool waiting on line. Now they've all been wiped out. So you produce a buyer stupid enough to pay more than 1999 prices for this junk real estste. I dare you, they no longer exist. Why are you so scared of 1999 prices?

Comment #46 Posted By: Anonymous 12/19/08

Anonymous

All you brokers and pipedreamers make me laugh. This market is going lower, way lower. Welcome to reality. Those who argue differently are merely desperate brokers marauding as real estate mavens or hopeless sellers trying to believe their own garbage. Sorry folks, the party's over. Try a real career now. Thanks

Comment #47 Posted By: Anonymous 12/19/08

Anonymous

The problem is that for the last 10 years we followed wall street as an indicator of how the manhattan market moved. The excesses and outrageous money made in wall street drove prices higher and higher. Now that it all has come tumbling down everyone is in a panic about the prices dropping in manhattan real estate. The truth of the matter is that only 375,000 people work on wall street of which many of them live in exclusive areas in NJ, Conn. and Westchester. The rest of the 1,500,000.people in manhattan are not moving anywhere. The vacancy rate in manhattan is around 2 % and unlike stocks that go up and down we don't have to buy and sell our homes every day. The markets will be down for the next six months because of the hesitation to buy now. However as soon as there is a perception that prices have reached bottom there will be a stampede to take advantage of the prices. Prices will stabilize or rise again who ever believes differently are kidding them selves. That is what happened in 76, 83, 90, 98, 01, and now in 08. that is the reality.

Comment #48 Posted By: Anonymous 12/20/08

UrbanDigs

Anon #48 - the problem with that is 1) there is NO MORE WALL STREET 2) CREDIT DEFLATION 3) Broken securitization model 4) Defaults spreading to Alt-A, Prime, HELOCS, credit cards, auto loans, etc.. going to still be a problem for assets held by banks 5) Heavy regulation coming to ensure this credit mania NEVER occurs again 6) Corporate Bond Spreads at very distressed levels all but ensures many failures upcoming, a situation that will pressure stocks and on and on. We just cant compare to many of the recessions you noted because of the combination of events that we are facing now. Certainly not 01s business/terrorist drive recession. This is a business & consumer driven recession that saw destruction of shadow banking system, wall street, securitization originate & package model, etc..There is a reason the fed/treasury are doing what they are doing, and its because this is no ordinary slowdown.

Comment #49 Posted By: UrbanDigs 12/21/08

Anonymous

Hello Foreclosure heaven right in Manhattan, when those Alt As start adjusting. Yummy, Yummy, there will be some magnificent deals at 30-40 cents on thr dollar.

Comment #50 Posted By: Anonymous 12/21/08

Anonymous

Stop Praising Noah Rosenblatt. This guy is a hack who caters to dumb money. He's no hero...just a guy hustling to make a buck. A wolf in sheeps clothing.

Comment #51 Posted By: Anonymous 12/23/08

Anonymous

Lets make things simple here. I cant even begin to understand why the point of view that Manhattan is vulnerable to price corrections is a ludicrous claim. Its reality folks. Instead of quoting people or throwing Shchiller index projects etc lets think logically. The ECONOMY dictates home prices (fundamentally). The ECONOMY is getting worse and worse, this you cannot argue. The ECONOMY is going to get even worse in the new year. We haven't begun to see the effects yet. Im not saying 50% declines bc I dont know.. you cant project. But if you take step back, look at the inflated growth and make a reasonable assessment of what's it store, you get decent price declines. (CONTINUED)

Comment #52 Posted By: Anonymous 12/23/08

Anonymous

Lets make things simple here. I cant even begin to understand why the point of view that Manhattan is vulnerable to price corrections is a ludicrous claim. Its reality folks. Instead of quoting people or throwing Shchiller index projects etc lets think logically. The ECONOMY dictates home prices (fundamentally). The ECONOMY is getting worse and worse, this you cannot argue. The ECONOMY is going to get even worse in the new year. We haven't begun to see the effects yet. Im not saying 50% declines bc I dont know.. you cant project. But if you take step back, look at the inflated growth and make a reasonable assessment of what's it store, you get decent price declines. (CONTINUED)

Comment #53 Posted By: Anonymous 12/23/08

Anonymous

The world we once lived in with high leverage and lose lending is over. Things MUST retrace. This is not theory this is pure fact, there is no other direction to go right now. If anyone disagrees, please attempt to bridge the gap. You have lost jobs (wall street which drives a good portion of NYC real estate), deflation, plummeting net worth's frozen credit and increasing inventories. If this does not spell a story to you then you're head is wedged btw your thigh's. The sooner people admit were in a mess, the sooner we can begin to bottom out and rebuild. Until then your leather vibrating chair will only be used to vibrate your crotch.

Comment #54 Posted By: Anonymous 12/23/08

Anonymous

to Comment # 19 someone bought a ONE Bedroom CONDO for $ 250-$300 K in the late 1990's Studio at the Tudor was going for $ 80 - 100 K

Comment #55 Posted By: Anonymous 12/24/08

Anonymous

to #55 from anon 19 That's good to know. Let's just say the bottom will fall out of Manhattan RE prices. Anyone who says anything else, is stuipd or worse, a thief criminal like Bernard Madoff. How about we start telling the truth around here?

Comment #56 Posted By: Anonymous 12/28/08

Anonymous

Noah is a great predictor of markets and maybe he should teach at Columbia or NYU. Finding an apartment, negotiating a price, and getting the deal done are all other things.

Comment #57 Posted By: Anonymous 01/01/09

Anonymous

Who cares? Home prices in Manhattan, Brooklyn, and even Queens are a joke. It's a rip off. What goes up must come down. Oh, and screw all the greedy brokers, which is literally all of them. I hope you all lose your jobs.

Comment #58 Posted By: Anonymous 01/03/09

Anonymous

375k of about 1.5mm is a huge number. How many residents are real estate professionals, or work in services that cater to wall st., i.e. law firms, marketing, restaurants, etc.

Comment #59 Posted By: Anonymous 01/06/09

Anonymous

im looking to buy a co op as an investnent. I realize that the market is still on a downward slope but is it a good idea to wait 2 more quarters or to try to get a deal reflective of a future value. IE: a co op tat is listed at 350,000 now reduced to 325,000 and i offer and get it for 300,000? is this a good move?? -new to the unceryain market

Comment #60 Posted By: Anonymous 01/06/09

Blerlatdrierm

I think you are thinking like sukrat, but I think you should cover the other side of the topic in the post too...

Comment #61 Posted By: Blerlatdrierm 01/13/09

Enlargement

I am amazed with it. It is a good thing for my research. Thanks

Comment #62 Posted By: Enlargement 01/15/09

nogeNellA

I am unable to understand this post. But well some points are useful for me.

Comment #63 Posted By: nogeNellA 01/20/09

Anonymous

So, does all this mean offer a super low price on that prewar classic 7 on the UES or does it mean continue to sit on the sidelines for another year?

Comment #64 Posted By: Anonymous 01/28/09

avtoman

????? ????????!!!!!!!!!!!!)

Comment #65 Posted By: avtoman 09/08/09

avtoooo

???????? - ??????? ?????? ??????. ?.???????????

Comment #66 Posted By: avtoooo 09/18/09

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