The biggest problems in New York City real estate
July 01, 2008 01:31PM
By Dorn Townsend
Following criticism, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has vowed to crack down on shoddy construction and is instituting greater scrutiny of developers who break the rules. He is also trying to speed up the new condo approval process, and has introduced reforms targeting the appraisal industry.
In the wake of the subprime and credit crises, problems are
becoming apparent even in New York City's usually buoyant real estate
market. Although real estate in New York City has escaped some of the
ravages the rest of the country has suffered, cracks in the façade are
starting to show.
For this supplement, The Real Deal
has chosen to bring some plaster: First, we home in on macro
difficulties, as well as some less-discussed problems. We then weigh in
with the advice of experts on ways to solve these issues.
We take a look at the
problem of the liquidity crisis. In the article Crisis or Correction, financial whizzes
contemplate how they think the financial markets can ultimately return
to a state of normalcy. For example, experts say the only way for the
broader housing market to recover is by restoring confidence in
lenders' processes to securitize their mortgages.
At the heart of the
matter is the role of independent appraisers. Without appraisers
capable of standing up to pressure from mortgage brokers to price
unrealistically, it will be hard to restore confidence. Insiders
consider how to make this happen in Restoring credibility to appraisers.
Besides impacting banks
and their ability to make informed investments, the present crisis is
triggering fear among homeowners that they may lose their homes. In How New Yorkers spell foreclosure relief, we probe what's being done to control the growing number of
foreclosures — and experts share their views on whether the present
actions are sufficient.
In addition to these
sweeping problems, the city's real estate industry is facing some more
local conundrums. One lingering difficulty is the manner in which
different real estate firms arrive at different outcomes in their
market reports. In Making sense of market reports, analysts reflect on whether the city needs
a comparison-providing multiple listing service. Another growing
difficulty emanates from spiraling energy costs, and the responses of
commercial landlords to those costs. When it comes to energy costs, landlords over a barrel shows that
many are turning to alternative energy sources and long-term fixed
contracts as solutions.
Finally, no problem has had a more tragic impact and received more
recent coverage than accidents at construction sites stemming from
crane malfunctions. In Shoring up construction safety, we review suggestions for reforming
the city's Department of Buildings and creating a culture of safety and
accountability.
Two other stories discuss the mysterious flexibility of offices' floor area over time and the new wave of scrutiny shoddy developers could soon see from the Attorney General's office and the Department of Buildings.
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Comments
Anonymous
For some bizarre reason, you missed the biggest problem of all: prices are falling, Wall Street are being lost by the thousands. It's getting worse and it's getting worse quickly. Gee, I'm kind of thinking that might have something to do with it.
Comment #1 Posted By: Anonymous 07/10/08
Anonymous
I agree with #0 - the article isn't addressing some of the biggest problems. Clearly, in Manhattan sales are falling at double digit rates and inventories are going through the roof. That can only mean that prices have to fall much further.
Comment #2 Posted By: Anonymous 07/14/08
Anonymous
Actually, either median nor average prices are falling according to reports. However, that is due to a factor often ignored. It's well known that the upper bracket is still buying apartments for 10 mill USD and more, increasing the average and median. However, the fact that the bulk of the sales in 1-3 mill USD are declining, the average/median increase accelerates. So, average/median price increases are actually a sign of decreasing sales activities (in the lower bracket) and that prices have to come way down.
Comment #3 Posted By: Anonymous 07/14/08
421A Victim
It may not be at the top of the list, but has anyone experienced the frustrating and unprofesional process at the 421A office in HPD. I have found them to be uncommunicative, unhelpful, and rude. Their new "on-line" system was supposed to speed up the horribly slow pace of application approval, but instead it has generated ridiculous requests for irrelevant info. Am I alone here, or has anyone else been through the same mess?
Comment #4 Posted By: 421A Victim 07/20/08
Anonymous
Appraisals never were - and certainly are not now - the issue. Apopraisal standards were raised considerably after the S&L crisis, which was, in large part, caused by lax, if not corrupt, appraisal practices. Those standards were easy to meet this time around because of the huge amount of house sales that became the "comps" for the subject properties being appraised; and those, in turn, became the the comps for the next crop of appraisals. With such a large, continuous, and current database of comps, there was really no problem meeting the strictest of appraisal standards. The real problem with appraisals will occur henceforth, when there aren't enough like sales to generate valid comps. Indeed, this problem will be exacerbated by falling prices, and politicians looking to "fix" appraisal standards. No, the real "heart of the matter" is that the fault for this mess lies with the greedy pig bastards of Wall Street who, in their unbridled and insatiable greed, corrupted most of the rest of the process, and may have come close to breaking the system itself.
Comment #5 Posted By: Anonymous 07/22/08
Anonymous
The biggest issue in Manhattan real estate and elsewhere is that banks have no cash. There are plenty of well heeled byuers who still desire to invest in Manhattan real estate, but we keep hearing about banks showing up at closings without the money to fund the purchase of a property. The remedy here is good ol' fashioned portfolio lending. #2 you should get your hands on the latest Miller Samuel sales report which demonstrates that price are relatively flat. Miller Samuel was careful to exclude 15 CPW and the Plaza from it's sales data so that the effect of these ultra expensive condo's wouldn't skew the numbers. #3 I couldn't agree with you more.
Comment #6 Posted By: Anonymous 07/23/08
Anonymous
WELL I agree with the comment preceding mine. BANKS. Plain and simple, the bank lending market is not what it used to be and now Manhattan Real Estate of course is suffering. Lenders are skeptical, rates a bit higher and now, coops are higher risks. As for the "wall street" reference, I think the economy is obviously all interconnected, it is a chain reaction.
Comment #7 Posted By: Anonymous 08/06/08
Anonymous
#7 How can coops be a high risk ? Given the liquidity requirements of most coops and the extraordinary vetting process required to even get an accepted offer coop purchasers are the lowest risk purchasers oyut there. Minimum 25% down, miniumum 3 years carrying costs in non retirement liquid assets and these are the minimum requirements often you need at least 1 x times the purchase price in liquid non-retirment assets before you can even consider a coop. The major problem with New York real estate is that the real estate firms have made it into a media circus instead of the low profile industry it once was and the media feeds the frenzy by making news stories out of non-issues in order to justify their existence and make more adevrtising dollars
Comment #8 Posted By: Anonymous 10/22/08
David
In my opinion the apartment prices in Manhattan were driven up to outrageously high levels primarily due to the demand created by the wealth created on wall street, wealth which was a by product of all the financial investments which we now know were outrageously overvalued. It appears that the city will lose over 100k financial related jobs (among tens of thousands of other jobs) thus reducing demand for our very pricey real estate. I wish it weren't so since I bought my apartment in late 2006. It's going to be a bumpy ride.
Comment #9 Posted By: David 11/29/08
Anonymous
While this article was fairly well written it leaves out many important points. As a corporate relocation broker my business has gone close to bust. I think brokers and agents need to speak more openly and honestly about these problems rather than putting on a fake facade of optimism. Yes-things will eventually get better, but we as real estate professionals need to deal with the "NOW". There needs to be a serious restructuring in our industry, and we need to face the fact that many Manhattan real estate agents have filed for bankruptcy this year. We all need to get real, come together, and create strategies and improvements as an industry to deal with this market crisis.
Comment #10 Posted By: Anonymous 12/17/08
Anonymous
I agree with #10. I am a broker who has also seen my corporate relocation business go down completely.
Comment #11 Posted By: Anonymous 01/03/09
Anonymous
Fibonacci retracements.... Prices have to come down 30-60% from the peak... Simple economics
Comment #12 Posted By: Anonymous 01/06/09
mrs ho
o m g i feel so bad for new york
Comment #13 Posted By: mrs ho 03/12/09
Anonymous
How about creating a culture of real sustainability and durability for the construction industry and holding all new construction to Passive house standards? Air seal and insulate right and make the damn buildings watertight! how mant projects less than 5 years old already have scaffolding up around them and are undergoing extensive facade repairs??
Comment #14 Posted By: Anonymous 05/09/09