Coronavirus wealth gap widens as NYC cases reaches plateau: TRD Insights

Testing and infection rates have risen faster in low-income neighborhoods

TRD New York TRD INSIGHTS /
Apr.April 15, 2020 04:30 PM
Covid-19 testing has ramped up in New York City’s lower-income neighborhoods in recent weeks, and the positive test rate has risen even more quickly. (Credit: iStock)

Covid-19 testing has ramped up in New York City’s lower-income neighborhoods in recent weeks, and the positive test rate has risen even more quickly. (Credit: iStock)

When New York City’s Department of Health first published ZIP code-level coronavirus testing data in early April, it was clear that the city’s poorer neighborhoods were bearing the brunt of the pandemic — a trend that has been observed across the country. In the two weeks since, as testing has ramped up and the epidemic curve has risen to an apparent plateau, the divide between low- and high-income neighborhoods has sharpened.

An analysis by The Real Deal of that testing data and U.S. Census Bureau population and income figures illustrates this shift. When the analysis was first performed April 2, it appeared that neighborhoods across the city were being tested for coronavirus at similar rates regardless of income, and that a higher proportion of tests were positive in low-income areas — notably Borough Park, Elmhurst and other hot spots.

Coronavirus testing by zip code as of April 2nd
Zip CodePositive TestsTotal TestsPopulationMedian IncomePositive Rate
1000111326522,924$88,52642.64%
1000225054274,993$35,85946.13%
1000316137954,682$112,13142.48%
1000416383,028$157,64542.11%
1000525818,831$173,33330.86%
100066243,454$176,25025.00%
1000726677,023$246,81338.81%
1000918145057,925$61,54840.22%
1001010128233,730$117,92335.82%
1001122248750,472$128,61345.59%
100126818323,411$109,03737.16%
1001312225528,709$105,44247.84%
1001414030530,738$126,60145.90%
1001628858151,057$117,00449.57%
100174513815,801$127,50632.61%
10018661519,687$108,91443.71%
1001918745143,703$98,83341.46%
1002121156246,215$118,28937.54%
1002212333931,125$135,36336.28%
1002319050362,435$130,45237.77%
1002420464159,001$131,66831.83%
1002525275492,805$85,93033.42%
1002612630039,363$58,88442.00%
1002717042264,548$46,11340.28%
1002818947647,793$125,14039.71%
1002929066879,597$34,01643.41%
1003010620429,882$37,23251.96%
1003121740560,254$49,89153.58%
1003230854864,264$50,39156.20%
1003326449559,607$58,61453.33%
1003410826242,910$54,71641.22%
1003514734535,743$30,08142.61%
1003611627527,428$91,93642.18%
1003710920421,139$45,04153.43%
100387616722,800$86,05845.51%
1003911622627,726$39,65351.33%
1004020835644,571$47,13758.43%
1006512138528,109$127,37531.43%
1006924575,085$110,62542.11%
1007516037121,556$137,14643.13%
1012821259659,256$114,01035.57%
1028017509,384$169,84434.00%
1028221425,593$250,00150.00%
1030117533338,733$55,80252.55%
103026113718,204$64,10344.53%
1030310622125,947$62,55847.96%
1030428954041,064$52,19953.52%
1030517842842,298$76,48941.59%
1030627863253,142$79,56943.99%
103076714215,232$80,89347.18%
1030814633130,186$93,96344.11%
1030917036333,531$103,17546.83%
103109721823,262$72,09344.50%
1031233665461,741$95,06451.38%
1031445295990,761$86,74247.13%
1045133758547,798$28,92157.61%
1045236762976,078$28,27758.35%
1045338666379,606$25,27558.22%
1045417434338,203$21,14950.73%
1045517635142,283$26,80150.14%
1045635569394,218$27,10651.23%
1045730657174,554$27,42053.59%
1045833262283,960$33,93253.38%
1045922742348,351$27,68753.66%
1046025548459,505$26,86652.69%
1046137671450,348$56,61252.66%
1046237776876,756$52,40949.09%
1046325365471,360$58,55138.69%
1046425654,434$93,36538.46%
1046526759644,205$74,79644.80%
1046636266672,479$51,47754.35%
104676381134103,732$37,01556.26%
1046839762478,647$36,04663.62%
1046947081573,870$63,65257.67%
104708315715,432$57,16052.87%
1047110429721,896$85,70735.02%
1047230252868,796$30,97757.20%
1047330455659,609$41,63854.68%
10474559712,127$25,49356.70%
1047525544643,208$50,83257.17%
1142916326527,403$83,24061.51%
1100412120415,234$92,65759.31%
1110114832030,043$65,39246.25%
1110210523130,800$64,06745.45%
1110310420336,140$71,43751.23%
111048515526,119$61,26954.84%
1110510424237,382$73,95942.98%
1110614429038,363$63,70349.66%
1110913455,981$148,59028.89%
1120120447962,823$124,99642.59%
1120334354675,451$51,27762.82%
1120453493276,978$49,78557.30%
1120518231946,064$56,70857.05%
1120632957288,349$36,40457.52%
1120733258791,972$37,24356.56%
1120835056198,660$40,73362.39%
1120920945267,809$72,31446.24%
1121038667167,040$65,90057.53%
11211601961102,624$71,22562.54%
1121225444576,527$26,23957.08%
1121339462166,295$41,71063.45%
1121425154492,946$54,04146.14%
1121517843770,156$123,58340.73%
1121616231656,308$61,12151.27%
1121713026941,407$107,36248.33%
1121835061374,508$69,41557.10%
11219771114690,036$39,29567.28%
1122026445995,643$47,07957.52%
1122126045583,835$50,15357.14%
112229623636,492$85,11140.68%
1122334664281,789$50,10853.89%
1122413330446,707$33,13143.75%
1122526742758,882$55,86262.53%
11226344600100,277$52,05257.33%
1122810122244,994$67,91145.50%
1122931664083,615$60,87349.38%
11230631104689,075$49,54160.33%
1123112727137,845$100,21346.86%
112328515027,602$56,66156.67%
1123322538376,819$40,44958.75%
1123436471395,666$81,39951.05%
1123534868478,128$52,53850.88%
11236416701100,331$67,66959.34%
1123718428849,310$51,41363.89%
1123818335054,540$85,40752.29%
112398512913,244$27,10465.89%
1135716232039,902$83,95150.63%
1135413427255,200$42,50049.26%
1135521336480,853$39,20758.52%
1135611022623,362$60,49348.67%
1135811924837,190$66,12947.98%
113605915319,621$86,17438.56%
113618518827,246$85,88745.21%
113626414318,721$89,18544.76%
1136327656,952$104,79241.54%
1136411322036,806$76,98851.36%
1136516631244,983$66,48353.21%
1136610618314,650$78,99057.92%
1136731851141,824$57,93362.23%
113689471227112,425$50,79777.18%
1136933145434,118$54,12172.91%
1137037877732,514$65,09848.65%
1137249269361,844$56,38371.00%
11373831114893,967$51,18372.39%
1137431953542,653$63,16159.63%
1137541883873,488$80,54249.88%
1137736462886,421$57,01057.96%
1137815628537,279$73,33354.74%
1137919536037,851$82,81954.17%
11385425759106,717$72,26155.99%
1141115122120,759$93,88268.33%
1141224541037,458$78,51759.76%
1141326143242,443$86,32460.42%
1141416232129,219$71,64850.47%
1141514924319,372$68,29461.32%
1141611718527,125$67,46163.24%
1141717329131,927$73,42459.45%
1141821636338,517$66,57059.50%
1141918233449,618$70,88254.49%
1142022339048,489$67,93257.18%
1142120235241,002$72,06657.39%
1142221134132,082$89,23561.88%
1142316427031,400$70,26660.74%
1142610120220,801$88,80350.00%
1142718132324,037$74,58156.04%
1142811217118,929$73,69965.50%
1143435855565,791$62,20764.50%
1143240561362,053$55,90666.07%
1143315525036,489$51,52162.00%
1143529351759,296$64,08656.67%
1143610015520,077$75,24264.52%
1169143669467,094$46,14762.82%
1169211018420,991$44,02459.78%
116938614412,919$59,43159.72%
1169414327021,354$80,97652.96%
1169725623,540$103,58040.32%

SOURCE: TRD analysis of Department of Health and US census data

SOURCE: TRD analysis of Department of Health and US census data

The second run of the analysis, on April 13, found that testing had accelerated most in lower-income ZIP codes. The positive-test rate also increased more dramatically in those neighborhoods, strengthening the inverse correlation between income and the rate of positive tests.

Coronavirus testing by zip code as of April 13th
Zip CodesPositive TestsTotal TestsPopulationMedian IncomePositive Rate
1000121144822,924$88,52647.10%
10002539102474,993$35,85952.64%
1000327966254,682$112,13142.15%
1000423593,028$157,64538.98%
10005381168,831$173,33332.76%
1000610433,454$176,25023.26%
10007341077,023$246,81331.78%
1000938185157,925$61,54844.77%
1001016646833,730$117,92335.47%
1001135573150,472$128,61348.56%
100129828523,411$109,03734.39%
1001316136228,709$105,44244.48%
1001421245730,738$126,60146.39%
1001643599251,057$117,00443.85%
100179026015,801$127,50634.62%
100181563319,687$108,91447.13%
1001933475343,703$98,83344.36%
1002138696746,215$118,28939.92%
1002221956231,125$135,36338.97%
1002334185762,435$130,45239.79%
1002438099459,001$131,66838.23%
10025626143992,805$85,93043.50%
1002630860539,363$58,88450.91%
1002747691064,548$46,11352.31%
1002831780247,793$125,14039.53%
10029824153879,597$34,01653.58%
1003027744829,882$37,23261.83%
1003161193560,254$49,89165.35%
10032728119064,264$50,39161.18%
10033626101159,607$58,61461.92%
1003434560742,910$54,71656.84%
1003544079635,743$30,08155.28%
1003623249427,428$91,93646.96%
1003723240521,139$45,04157.28%
1003815130022,800$86,05850.33%
1003926647827,726$39,65355.65%
1004049878644,571$47,13763.36%
1006521662728,109$127,37534.45%
1006935935,085$110,62537.63%
1007526256421,556$137,14646.45%
10128396100659,256$114,01039.36%
1028027819,384$169,84433.33%
1028244905,593$250,00148.89%
10301593113338,733$55,80252.34%
1030231861218,204$64,10351.96%
1030348686625,947$62,55856.12%
10304788152941,064$52,19951.54%
10305700150442,298$76,48946.54%
10306886198953,142$79,56944.55%
1030724651015,232$80,89348.24%
1030843098430,186$93,96343.70%
10309561126433,531$103,17544.38%
1031038381523,262$72,09346.99%
103121008207161,741$95,06448.67%
103141569323190,761$86,74248.56%
10451788131447,798$28,92159.97%
104521068164076,078$28,27765.12%
104531146181179,606$25,27563.28%
1045455087238,203$21,14963.07%
1045556291942,283$26,80161.15%
104561130184094,218$27,10661.41%
10457969155174,554$27,42062.48%
10458968166283,960$33,93258.24%
10459746120148,351$27,68762.11%
10460771128859,505$26,86659.86%
104611018187850,348$56,61254.21%
104621201215876,756$52,40955.65%
10463885181071,360$58,55148.90%
10464751944,434$93,36538.66%
10465865176244,205$74,79649.09%
104661259211272,479$51,47759.61%
1046717692911103,732$37,01560.77%
104681224184978,647$36,04666.20%
104691514244873,870$63,65261.85%
1047025847215,432$57,16054.66%
1047130266921,896$85,70745.14%
10472918140868,796$30,97765.20%
104731053179559,609$41,63858.66%
1047417026612,127$25,49363.91%
10475912162343,208$50,83256.19%
1100432450515,234$92,65764.16%
1110134467230,043$65,39251.19%
1110230653430,800$64,06757.30%
1110329652436,140$71,43756.49%
1110426442926,119$61,26961.54%
1110527955037,382$73,95950.73%
1110634262938,363$63,70354.37%
11109371035,981$148,59035.92%
1120137389462,823$124,99641.72%
112031001152975,451$51,27765.47%
112041110179176,978$49,78561.98%
1120539272446,064$56,70854.14%
11206757131288,349$36,40457.70%
11207928149591,972$37,24362.07%
112081029156898,660$40,73365.63%
11209587116267,809$72,31450.52%
11210898142767,040$65,90062.93%
1121112021893102,624$71,22563.50%
11212842130276,527$26,23964.67%
11213793129666,295$41,71061.19%
11214760133092,946$54,04157.14%
1121535079770,156$123,58343.91%
1121637670956,308$61,12153.03%
1121731659941,407$107,36252.75%
11218976160674,508$69,41560.77%
112191679247690,036$39,29567.81%
11220784123895,643$47,07963.33%
11221641106183,835$50,15360.41%
1122225551836,492$85,11149.23%
11223885155581,789$50,10856.91%
1122448581146,707$33,13159.80%
11225632100158,882$55,86263.14%
112269951527100,277$52,05265.16%
1122835662644,994$67,91156.87%
11229791140283,615$60,87356.42%
112301301209189,075$49,54162.22%
1123124150437,845$100,21347.82%
1123226739527,602$56,66167.59%
1123359197176,819$40,44960.87%
112341149187995,666$81,39961.15%
11235911160178,128$52,53856.90%
1123613131985100,331$67,66966.15%
1123745166549,310$51,41367.82%
1123844877854,540$85,40757.58%
1123925040313,244$27,10462.03%
1135446175755,200$42,50060.90%
1135558792680,853$39,20763.39%
1135628549723,362$60,49357.34%
1135744177739,902$83,95156.76%
1135828955337,190$66,12952.26%
1136017335819,621$86,17448.32%
1136125346327,246$85,88754.64%
1136216733918,721$89,18549.26%
11363681366,952$104,79250.00%
1136425948536,806$76,98853.40%
1136544079144,983$66,48355.63%
1136624441914,650$78,99058.23%
11367591100741,824$57,93358.69%
1136823983035112,425$50,79779.01%
11369883116534,118$54,12175.79%
11370833134832,514$65,09861.80%
113721428192761,844$56,38374.10%
113731859260093,967$51,18371.50%
11374673116942,653$63,16157.57%
11375937174173,488$80,54253.82%
113771152174086,421$57,01066.21%
1137839767937,279$73,33358.47%
1137943479737,851$82,81954.45%
1138510661797106,717$72,26159.32%
1141140859420,759$93,88268.69%
11412693108137,458$78,51764.11%
11413752116342,443$86,32464.66%
1141445376529,219$71,64859.22%
1141530651719,372$68,29459.19%
1141631748927,125$67,46164.83%
1141742168331,927$73,42461.64%
1141853283838,517$66,57063.48%
1141954285849,618$70,88263.17%
11420675106448,489$67,93263.44%
1142160290641,002$72,06666.45%
1142255289832,082$89,23561.47%
1142348674531,400$70,26665.23%
1142629252420,801$88,80355.73%
1142744072624,037$74,58160.61%
1142834953618,929$73,69965.11%
1142953676527,403$83,24070.07%
11432843130462,053$55,90664.65%
1143347772736,489$51,52165.61%
114341060165565,791$62,20764.05%
11435796130859,296$64,08660.86%
1143626941220,077$75,24265.29%
116911111164767,094$46,14767.46%
1169229747120,991$44,02463.06%
1169319733412,919$59,43158.98%
1169436062221,354$80,97657.88%
11697631303,540$103,58048.46%

SOURCE: TRD analysis of census and NYC Department of Health data

SOURCE: TRD analysis of census and NYC Department of Health data

The tide of the epidemic in New York City may be turning as social distancing slows transmission of the virus. Hospitalization data shows that the number of people admitted to hospitals in the city for Covid-19, once as high as 700 per day, has declined to fewer than 400. If the number drops below 200 for 10 consecutive days it will be a sign that the spread is indeed slowing, according to the city’s Department of Health.


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