Subscribe to TRD Data to unlock this content
In the third quarter, outstanding U.S. commercial real estate debt edged higher compared to the quarter before, with securitized lenders increasing their totals the most among institutional lenders.
Outstanding balances hit $4.9 trillion in the third quarter, up from $4.8 trillion the quarter before, according to a new report from research firm Trepp, which noted that the debt market has been relatively stable amid elevated borrowing costs. Even though the Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark interest rate three times last year, those cuts came toward the end of 2025. Trepp anticipates those effects will play out through 2026 and beyond.
All institutional lenders, from banks to insurance companies, upped their CRE debt balances quarter over quarter. But within this group, securitized lenders saw their balances rise 3.7 percent compared to the quarter before — the fastest quarterly growth in several years. The steeper rise reflects modest spread tightening and stronger investor demand for securitized loans, a market that also may be more sensitive to the increased optimism from the rate cuts, the report noted.
Still, banks and thrifts — such as credit unions — continued to hold the lion’s share of all the CRE debt in the U.S., more than 36 percent, down from about 38 percent the quarter before.
Banks and securitized lenders also hold the highest concentrations of CRE debt maturing from the end of 2025 through this year. For banks, this amounts to about 28 percent of their outstanding balances, for a total of $488 billion. For securitized lenders, 38.3 percent of their outstanding loans — totaling nearly $287 billion — are coming due.
The exposure then shifts to GSEs and insurance companies in the long run. From 2030 onward, almost 58 percent of GSE’s outstanding balance — more than $637 billion — are expected to mature. Insurance companies will have 49 percent of their balance, which comes out to more than $816 billion, set to mature at that time.