Where have home loan refinancings surged — and plummeted — the most from last year?

The national home refinancing boom is losing steam. 

In late 2025, U.S. refinancing growth cooled to 11 percent in late 2025, a sharp drop from the 31 percent surge seen a year prior, according to a TRD Data analysis of home loan data from Attom.

The Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark interest rate three times at the back end of last year, and the market already has priced in around two more cuts this year. Still, there are signs of a slowing residential market: new purchase loan originations were down in the fourth quarter and in December, pending home sales across the country plummeted to their lowest level in at least more than a decade. Buyers continue to have concerns about high housing prices, job stability and elevated interest rates.

Among the top 56 metros, about 75 percent saw increases in refinancing activity year over year, meaning just about a quarter saw declines. That represents a shift from the year before, where just 5 percent of the metros reported year over year declines. 

Buffalo last quarter had the steepest drop, with refinancings down by more than 42 percent. The median home price in the fourth quarter was $271,000, up about 8 percent year over year but still well below the national median of $434,000. In New York state, the average mortgage rate is higher than elsewhere in the U.S. As of Wednesday, the state’s average for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 6.3 percent. The national average was 6.26 percent.

As the growth in refinancing activity continues to moderate nationally, there is one market that isn’t getting the memo.

In the fourth quarter, the San Jose, California metropolitan area saw activity skyrocket by nearly 71 percent. That was the greatest spike among metros with populations of at least 1 million. That growth rate was also an improvement from the year prior, when refinancings in San Jose had climbed by more than 62 percent year over year.

San Jose, the heart of Silicon Valley, is one of the most competitive and most expensive markets in the country. San Jose’s median home sale price in the fourth quarter was $1.4 million, according to Redfin. Greater home equity can make it easier and more attractive for homeowners to refinance their loans.