Poll: Rick Caruso noses ahead of Karen Bass in LA mayor race

Millions of dollars in attack ads by Los Angeles mayoral candidate Rick Caruso have moved the needle, with the real estate developer nosing ahead of Rep. Karen Bass, according to a poll of likely voters.

With three weeks to go before the Nov. 8 vote, Caruso now leads Bass by 3 percentage points after trailing by a similar spread in June, the Pasadena Star-News reported.

The self-funded billionaire leads 39.8 percent to the congresswoman’s 36.8 percent, according to the Southern California News Group poll. Some 23.6 percent remain undecided, or declined to name a candidate.

The poll, taken in English and Spanish between Oct. 15-17, was conducted by J. Wallin Opinion Research, based in Irvine, and surveyed 400 likely voters in Los Angeles. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percent.

The 3-point lead may be too narrow to be statistically significant, so the race for mayor of the nation’s second-largest city remains a toss-up.

The SCNG survey asked likely voters to name the biggest issues facing the city, which mayoral candidate they prefer and whether they support two city initiatives on the ballot.

When asked which candidate would do a better job addressing key issues confronting the city, the respondents named Caruso in four of the five categories. One, managing the city’s finances, had Caruso with a notable lead, at 37.8 percent to 31 percent.

When asked about handling inflation and the economy, homelessness and poverty, and crime and public safety, Caruso led by between 4 and 4.3 percentages points. In dealing with City Hall corruption, both candidates tied at 31 percent.

The poll found 43.7 percent of Latino voters approved of Caruso, with 29.4 percent for Bass.

Caruso was favored by Whites, at 43.6 percent versus 37.8 percent, and Asian/Pacific Islanders, at 35.5 percent to 29 percent. Bass won likely Black voters, at 57.4 percent to 19.1 percent.

“We can only definitely say that Caruso has an advantage with finance,” pollster Justin Wallin said. “The other ones, they’re too close to call. People view them both as credible players.”

Sarah Leonard Sheahan, spokeswoman for the Bass campaign, challenged the findings, saying the poll was inconsistent with other polls the campaign has seen.

“We all know the $80 million and counting Caruso has spent attacking Congresswoman Bass will certainly bring things closer,” she told the newspaper, referring to the money Caruso has funneled into his mayoral campaign.

Bass, a former state Assembly speaker endorsed by big-name Democrats that include President Joe Biden, was an early frontrunner who received 43 percent of the votes in the June primary, 7 points more than Caruso.

A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll last summer found Bass led by 12 percentage points among all registered Los Angeles voters. A poll late last month found her lead had narrowed to 3 percentage points.

Among likely voters, the September poll by IGS showed Caruso still trailing by double digits – with 46 percent supporting Bass versus 31 percent for Caruso.

The arithmetic may have changed, however, after the launch of attack ads by Caruso.

Caruso shoveled $7.3 million into his campaign in late September, just after tossing in $5 million, which followed the purchase of $17 million in broadcast TV ads last month.

— Dana Bartholomew

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