While the economy’s gyrations have caused some investors to lose faith in New York City real estate, experts say some sectors of the real
estate market remain largely recession-proof, and some areas of the city will almost always lead to strong returns.
New York investors are not likely to stash their cash under the mattress even with the current banking calamity and credit freeze, so The Real Deal asked a number of experts for their take on the safest real estate investments. Several agreed that the most recession-proof sector in these uncertain economic times is multi-family residential.
“Think about it,” says David Kennedy, an investor and author who teaches a course in investing in multi-family dwellings at the New York Real Estate Institute. “People are being foreclosed on — where are they going to live? They’re going to rent.”
David Schwartz, a principal at Rush Brooks Partners, a New York-based real estate developer and investor group, says the safest buy is probably a rent-stabilized building, where investors don’t have to worry about whether a falling market might adversely impact rental values and force them to refinance in an unfriendly capital environment.
“If a rent-stabilized building has rents significantly below market value, there’s going to be very little vacancy,” says Schwartz. “There is very little risk the tenants are going to want to leave, but even if they do move out, it will be very easy to fill that apartment and even raise the rent.”
Some point out that investing in multi-family buildings also has another upside
in that getting a loan to purchase an already-occupied building is easier than securing
a loan to develop a new building or even
to refinance.
“When a bank looks at giving a mortgage on an investment property, the credit of the buyer isn’t as important,” says Kennedy. “They want to see the leases. How much is being produced every month out of
that property?”
Still, as The Real Deal reported in November, even multi-family rentals are not immune from the impact of the shaky overall market. Median prices for apartment buildings fell by 11.2 percent from the third quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of 2008, and median prices per apartment were down 17.5 percent during that period.
Multi-family purchases are, however, beating out other sectors, including mixed-use. According to PropertyShark, in the third quarter of 2008, there were 67 sales of residential buildings with more than five units in Manhattan, compared to just 32 sales of mixed-use properties.
In the third quarter of 2007, the numbers were much closer, with Manhattan seeing 81 sales of residential properties with more than five units and 72 mixed-use buildings. In
the third quarter of 2006, however, the spread was similar to last year’s two-to-one ratio, with 117 residential and just 66 mixed-use sales.
Bill Staniford, PropertyShark CEO, says one reason mixed-use sales may be dragging is because businesses, hit by the financial crisis, may be fleeing Manhattan’s relatively expensive commercial rates.
Staniford explains that, while hard to quantify, the riskiest investment these days is likely new residential construction.
“Older construction has more established valuation,” says Staniford. “If you have a lot of money to burn and you really want to live in a new building, fine. But if you’re looking to maintain your value as an investor, that’s not the place you want to be.”
James Nelson, a partner at Massey Knakal Realty Services, agrees. “Most buyers today like multi-family because they’re conservative investments with good in-place cash flow,” says Nelson.
Mitigating risk
Martin Nussbaum started N2 Realty Capital, a real estate hedge fund that provides private commercial lending to supplement bank loans, last year when he realized serious investors were having trouble getting loans. He points to a recent client who came in after getting a bank loan at a 65 percent loan-to-value ratio on his 22,000-square-foot East Village property.
The client, who was refinancing, needed another 15 percent. Nussbaum saw the building as a safe investment because the sponsor had been in business for 30 years, and the property (which has 22 units, half of which are rent-stabilized, and two retail spaces) was producing income.
Meanwhile, Peter Hauspurg, chairman of Eastern Consolidated, sees another way to stay in the market without accruing too much risk. He points to a recent deal his company did on a retail space at 146-148 Spring Street in Soho.
“An investor bought the ground floor,” says Hauspurg, whose company represented the seller, adding that owning a retail space with one or two tenants allows the investor to more easily maintain the property. “Unlike buying a building in Harlem with 1,000 tenants, something like this isn’t management-intensive.”
Barry Hersh, a clinical assistant professor at New York University’s Schack Institute of Real Estate, suggests that those looking at long-term investments opt for “core properties” like a Midtown office building or a condo on the Upper East Side if they want something “safe.”
Kennedy of the Real Estate Institute says he tells the students in his multi-family class to look outside the city for deals. He also suggests investors look at areas around universities for residential opportunities. Specifically, he points to the area of the Bronx near Fordham University.
“I’m an advocate of investing where students live,” says Kennedy. “They make the best tenants because their parents co-sign the lease.”
In addition to unit type, there are several neighborhoods that the experts generally consider surefire, even at a time when banks are sinking.
Schwartz cited what he called “A+” neighborhoods that he said are bucking the downward trend more than other neighborhoods. Tribeca and Chelsea both saw more deals in October 2008, the most recent time on record, than the year before, as did Times Square and Battery Park City. “In hard times, the traditionally strong neighborhoods are safer” to invest in, says Hersh. Outlying areas like Williamsburg, Greenpoint and Astoria, which have seen a great deal of action in the past three years, “might be riskier.”
According to various market reports, Manhattan residential prices have dropped between 10 and 20 percent from their peak. Manhattan residential sales volume was down 49 percent in November from November 2007, according to StreetEasy, suggesting that some are wary of how safe an investment residential units are.
In Brooklyn and Queens, volume is even further off, down 56 percent and 52 percent, respectively, over November 2007. In both boroughs, the median residential price has also fallen, down 13 percent in Brooklyn and 20 percent in Queens in the past year.
Safety in sitting out
Despite his suggestions for safe investment, Hersh and others still note that opting not to invest might be the least risky thing to do at the moment. “Everyone is scratching their heads,” he says. “Not much is happening right now. I think people are waiting for things to settle down. How could you not be cautious with the Dow swinging hundreds of points every other day?”
Rush Brooks’ Schwartz echoes that sentiment. “The safest thing to do right now is sit on money,” he says. “There’s a lot of unknowns out there. We’re looking for investments, and we would purchase something if the deal was right, but it’s been challenging to make the numbers work.”
Still, some say if you’re willing to hold onto a property for several years, now is actually a smart time to get into the market.
And many are flocking to real estate education courses to figure out the best way to do that. Richard Levine, president of the New York Real Estate Institute, says his classes are full because of the “tremendous opportunity” in the current market among people who are looking to figure out how best to take advantage of the situation.
Says Kennedy, “People invest in real estate for cash flow, appreciation and, most importantly, tax breaks. Do you really want your money in the stock market right now?”