Mortgage déjà vu?

From the March issue: During most of this cycle, buyers have had access to some of the cheapest home loans in American history. Until last November, a borrower with excellent credit could get a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 3.5 percent, an unprecedented situation.

The days of very low interest rates dragged on far longer than anyone expected and are finally, definitively, coming to a close — predictions put interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 4.75 percent by the end of this year.

For lenders and buyers, this will mean many changes: a rise in nonbank lending, more nonqualified mortgage (non-QM) loans in the market and a struggle for the self-employed to find loans. It also means the end of the refinance boom. The net effect of these changes — on the larger housing market and even the national economy — is yet to be determined, but the anticipation is already having an impact on the market. [more]