Growing condo supply worth monitoring in Aventura, Sunny Isles Beach

A luxury condo builder has sold off a “prime” development site in Aventura. How is the Aventura condo market doing at this time?  

Aventura is a 20-year-old city with more than 37,000 residents that is best known for a megamall, a golf resort and some of the most reasonably priced condos units east of Interstate 95 in northeast Miami-Dade County.

Located on the mainland just west of the high-priced barrier island city of Sunny Isles Beach, Aventura has traditionally served as an outpost for Miami-Dade residents who want close proximity — without the price tag — to some of South Florida’s best restaurants, retailers and sand located across the Intracoastal Waterway.

The recent move by the Chateau Group — a luxury condo developer that had announced plans to build at least seven towers during this cycle — to offload to an out-of-town builder rather than construct upon a condo development site in Aventura is raising speculation that the current South Florida real estate cycle is changing as several new towers have been announced since 2011.

To date, developers have announced 16 new condo towers with more than 2,500 units in the Aventura area that stretches from the Broward County line south to 163rd Street, and the Intracoastal Waterway west to I-95 as of March 20, according to the preconstruction condo projects website CraneSpotters.com. (For disclosure, my firm operates the website.)

The current minimum price per square foot on a mean basis in Aventura is nearly $590 with some 71 percent of the nearly 1,300 currently available for purchase already under contract, according to the CraneSpotters.com Developers Price Survey for March.

It is worth noting that an additional 20 new condo towers — at least three of which are being developed by the Chateau Group — with more than 2,500 units have been announced in Sunny Isles Beach, which is located to the east over the causeway to the barrier island.

In Sunny Isles Beach, the mean minimum price per square foot is more than $1,500. Some 71 percent of the more than 2,000 presale units currently available for purchase are said to be under contract, according to the survey.

Besides the number of new condo towers in the pipeline for northeast Miami-Dade, it is important to consider that nearly 1,200 condo units in Aventura are currently on the resale market at an average asking price of less than $335 per square foot as today, according to data from the Southeast Florida MLXchange.

In the first two months of this year, buyers acquired about 175 condo units in Aventura at an average transaction price of $250 per square foot, according to the preliminary data.

At the current resale pace of about 88 transactions monthly, Aventura currently has more than 13 months of condo resale supply for purchase.

A balanced market is considered to have about six months of supply of properties. More months of supply indicates a buyer’s market, and less months a seller’s market.

To accurately assess the Aventura condo market, it is important to consider — as many buyers often times do — the resale opportunities available in neighboring Sunny Isles Beach.

In Sunny Isles Beach, nearly 900 condo units are on the resale market at an average asking price of $658 per square foot. In the first two months of 2015, buyers acquired 100 condo units at an average transaction price of nearly $450 per square foot, according to the preliminary data.

For Sunny Isles Beach, the current supply of condo resale units represent about 18 months of inventory.

The number of condo resale units on the market may be higher than normal as South Florida is still in the busy winter tourism season when many sellers attempt to unload their properties at best-case scenario prices.

The unanswered question going forward is whether the asking prices for new and existing condos in Aventura and neighboring Sunny Isles Beach can be realized given the amount of supply that is currently available for purchase in northeast Miami-Dade.

Thought Of The Week: Tri-Rail Not Wanted In Greater Downtown Miami?

Boosters of Greater Downtown Miami who envision the area someday soon emerging as a world-class city on par with New York, London and Tokyo were dealt an unexpected blow this week

It turns out Miami Mayor Tomas Regalado has threatened to “veto” a proposal at next week’s commission meeting that calls for the city to contribute funds to the South Florida Regional Transit Authority’s effort to bring a Tri-Rail passenger rail service into Greater Downtown Miami beginning as soon as 2016.

If Regalado follows through on his veto threat to kill the plan, the only solace in this debate for Greater Downtown Miami boosters may be that the lines would presumably be shorter at the planned 1,000-foot-tall SkyRise Miami project equipped with a “plunging amusement ride” that is to be developed at the Bayside Marketplace using city funds.

Peter Zalewski is a real estate market consultant, non-practicing licensed real estate broker and columnist for The Real Deal who now answers reader questions about the South Florida real estate market in a new weekly Friday column. Questions and comments can be sent to southfloridanews@therealdeal.com. The TRD editors will choose which submissions will be addressed.