Commercial real estate may bottom near the end of the year, report says

New York /
Jan.January 13, 2010 03:00 PM

An economic recovery may be possible in 2011, according to Grubb & Ellis’ recent 2010 real estate forecast, due in part to an expected bottoming out of the commercial real estate market by the end of the year. “Many have called commercial real estate the next shoe to drop, but that’s really an exaggeration,” said Bob Bach, senior vice president and chief economist of Grubb & Ellis. He said it is highly unlikely that commercial real estate losses could hurt the economy as much as the subprime residential mortgage losses have, in part because the value of outstanding commercial mortgages is much less than the value of outstanding residential mortgages. The report also indicated the industrial sector could start to recover in late 2010 because it is less dependent on job growth than the office and retail commercial sectors. “The good news is that the freefall we saw in 2009 is over and the future is more certain, giving owners and users of real estate the confidence to begin making decisions again,” said Bach.


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