A look at the 15 best U.S. housing markets for the next five years

TRD New York /
Mar.March 04, 2013 12:00 PM

National home prices are expected to climb 0.6 percent in the next year, according to the latest home price report by Fiserv Case-Shiller.

But over the next five years, home prices are expected to rise 3.3 percent.We drew on Fiserv Case-Shiller‘s latest data to identify the best housing markets for the next five years.

The top 15 cities are ranked by the projected annualized change in home prices between Q3 2012 and Q3 2017.

We also included the median home price, median household income, unemployment rate, and the change in home prices since their peak, to offer a broader view of the local economy and housing market.

Note: The median family income and home price is for Q3 2012. Unemployment data is as of December 2012, and population data for the metros is for 2011.

Norwich-New London, Connecticut

Annualized expected growth from 2012 – 2017: 
7.9 percent

Home prices in Norwich-New London have tumbled 23.4 percent since their Q2 2006 peak.

It has a population of 273,502, an unemployment rate of 8.6 percent, and a median family income of $80,500, above the national median of $63,800. It also has a median home price of $225,000.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Tucson, Arizona

Annualized expected growth from 2012 – 2017: 
7.2 percent

Tucson’s home prices have plunged 40.4 percent since their Q1 2006 peak. The metro has a median home price of $165,000.

It has a population of 989,569, a median family income of $57,800, and an unemployment rate of 6.9 percent.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Visalia-Porterville, California

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: 
7.2 percent

Home prices in the Visalia-Porterville metro area have plunged 52.9 percent since they peaked in Q1 2006, and the city has a median home price of $145,000.

It has a population of 449,253, an unemployment rate of 14.9 percent, and a median family income of $48,200 below the national median.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Ocala, Florida

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: 
7.2 percent

Home prices in Ocala are down 48.1 percent from their Q3 2006 peak.

The metro has a population of 332,529, an unemployment rate of 9.0 percent, a median family income of $45,300, and a median home price of $107,000.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Yakima, Washington

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: 
7.3 percent

Home prices in Yakima are down 9 percent since their Q1 2009 peak. It has a median home price of $157,000.

Yakima has a population of 247,141, an unemployment rate of 9.3 percent, and a median family income of $48,800.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Gulfport-Biloxi, Mississippi

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: 
7.4 percent

Home prices in the Gulfport-Biloxi metro area have slipped 21.4 percent since their Q4 2007 peak, and the metro has a median home price of $108,000.

It has a population of 253,511, an unemployment rate of 7.9 percent and a median household income of $53,100.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Vallejo-Fairfield, California

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: 
7.5 percent

The Vallejo-Fairfield metro area’s home prices have fallen 59.2 percent since their Q1 2006 peak.

It has a population of 416,471 and an unemployment rate of 9.5 percent. It also has a median family income of $76,800, and a median home price of $230,000.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Yuma, Arizona

Annualized expected growth from 2012 – 2017: 
7.7 percent

Home prices in Yuma have fallen 37.7 percent since their Q4 2006 peak.

It has a population of 200,870, an unemployment rate of 30.1 percent, nearly four times the national average. It has a median family income of $45,700.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Reno-Sparks, Nevada

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: 
8.1 percent

The Reno-Sparks metro area has a population of 429,606, a median family income of $63,100, and an unemployment rate of 10.0 percent, higher than the national unemployment rate of 7.8 percent.

Home prices are down 52.6 percent from their Q1 2006 peak, and the metro has a median home price of $177,000.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, California

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: 
8.4 percent

The Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta metro area has a population of 426,878, a median family income of $70,300, and an unemployment rate of 7.2 percent.

Home prices are down 50.4 percent from their Q3 2005 peak, and the metro has a median home price of $285,000.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Carson City, Nevada

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017:
8.5 percent

Carson City home prices have fallen 51.0 percent since their Q2 2006 peak.

The Carson City metro area has a population of 55,439, an unemployment rate of 10.2 percent, and a median family income of $66,300.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Sebastian-Vero Beach, Florida

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017:
8.9 percent

Sebastian-Vero Beach home prices have fallen 50.5 percent since their Q4 2005 peak.

The metro has an unemployment rate of 9.9 percent, a median family income of $59,200, median home price of $139,000.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama City Beach, Florida

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: 
9.1 percent

Home prices in the Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama City Beach metro area have fallen 41.9 percent since their Q1 2006 peak. It now has a median home price of $143,000.

The metro has a population of 169,856, an unemployment rate of 7.6 percent, and a median family income of $56,400.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Santa Fe, New Mexico

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: 
9.1 percent

Santa Fe’s home prices have fallen 21.1 percent from their Q4 2007 peak. The Sante Fe metro area has a population of 145,648, an unemployment rate of 5.0 percent below the national average, and a median household income of $60,100, below the national median of $63,800.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Medford, Oregon

Annualized expected growth from Q3 2012 – Q3 2017: 
9.7 percent

Medford’s home prices have fallen 39.2 percent since their peak in Q2 2006. The metro has a population of 204,822 and median family income of $50,100.

At 10.0 percent Medford’s unemployment rate is higher than the national average.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes


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