The Real Deal New York

Industrial vacancy rate expected to hit 7.5% nationwide this year

That's well below 20-year average of 10.1%
April 22, 2018 08:00AM

Most of the national real estate market is expected to perform better this year than previously predicted, according to the Urban Land Institute.

The country’s industrial sector is expected to perform the strongest, with availability rates this year hitting 7.4 percent, according to figures from ULI’s Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate cited in National Mortgage Professional. That’s well below the 20-year average of 10.1 percent.

The industrial vacancy rate is projected to climb to 7.5 percent in 2019 and 7.7 percent in 2020.

On the retail side, the market is expected to pick up, with vacancy rates of 9.8 percent and 9.9 percent in 2018 and 2019, respectively.

“Fundamentals either are steadily improving or appear to have stabilized at sustainable levels,” ULI Leading Member Andrew Warren of the real estate research group at PwC said of the various sectors. “Despite differences in performances between property sectors, there is no indication that we are about to see any imbalance in 2018 that will send any of the sectors into a significant downturn.”

On the residential front, the multifamily sector will hit a vacancy rate 5 percent this year and 5.2 percent in both 2019 and 2020. Home prices are expected to rise an average of 5.3 percent this year.

And the office vacancy rate is expected to remain unchanged this year at 13 percent, and then climb to 13.2 percent next year and 13.4 percent in 2020. [NMP]Rich Bockmann