The numbers are in: Manhattan condo developers are pulling back.
The combined projected sellout for the 10 priciest projects approved to start marketing this year is just $1.86 billion, down from $3.1 billion last year, according to an analysis by The Real Deal.
Only two years ago, the combined total was $7.3 billion, with HFZ Capital Group’s XI condo topping the list.
The 2020 figures illuminate the shift toward smaller, less expensive projects as the city grapples with a glut of unsold units after the mid-decade condo boom. The pandemic has placed more pressure on the market and a slew of mezzanine lenders have begun initiating UCC foreclosure auctions as talks with developers collapse.
But there are some positive notes: The No. 1 development on this year’s list, Related Companies’ Lantern House condo, is targeting a sellout of $832.7 million, which is slightly higher than last year’s most valuable filing.
The No. 3 project, Naftali Group’s under-construction Benson condo, has had a strong end to the year, notching a string of big sales and grabbing headlines with a billboard displaying Jerry Seinfeld’s impassioned New York Times op-ed about the city’s future.
Here’s the full list of the priciest condo offering plans accepted by the New York attorney general’s office in 2020.
1. Lantern House | Related Companies | $832.75 million
Designed by London-based Thomas Heatherwick, Related’s distinctive 181-unit condo at 515 West 18th Street has the highest projected sellout of any condo approved by the attorney general’s office this year. At $832.75 million, the figure eclipses J.D. Carlisle Development Group’s Madison House condo, which took the top spot last year at $756 million.
2. 212 West 72nd Street | Centurion Real Estate | $403.6 million
Centurion’s CetraRuddy-designed conversion on the Upper West Side has a total projected sellout of $403.6 million. The building features more than 120 one- to five-bedroom units. Amenities include a rooftop terrace, children’s playroom and fitness center. Led by John Tashjian, Centurion began closings this year at its other condo project at 200 East 59th Street, after developer Harry Macklowe sold his stake to his capital partner for an undisclosed amount.
3. The Benson | 1045 Madison Avenue | Naftali Group | $224.7 million
Naftali Group’s under-construction condo at 1039-1045 Madison Avenue recorded some pricey contracts as 2020 came to a close, including a penthouse asking $22 million and another asking $35 million in back-to-back weeks this November. The building, which features 15 units and is currently cloaked in a Jerry Seinfeld billboard, has a projected sellout of $224.7 million.
4. 150 East 78th Street | Midwood Investment, EJS Real Estate | $208.6 million
Midwood and EJS landed a $95 million construction loan from Bank OZK in April for their luxury condo project on the Upper East Side, which has a projected sellout of $208.6 million. The Robert A.M. Stern-designed building, which topped out in August, will reportedly feature 25 units, with no more than two per floor.
5. 124-126 West 16th Street | Grid Group | $93.9 million
Like the Benson, this boutique condo in Chelsea is emblematic of the shift toward smaller projects with fewer units. The Grid Group’s effort features just 15 units across 12 stories, with a projected sellout of $93.9 million. Sales launched in February.
6. 150 West 82nd Street | GreenOak Real Estate | $89.9 million
GreenOak’s rental-to-condo conversion on the Upper West Side has been in the works since 2017, when the developer bought out Joseph Sitt-led Thor Equities’ interest in the building, along with two others in the neighborhood, in a deal valued at $190 million. The developer later filed an offering plan with the AG’s office that shed light on the future of the property: It would have 40 condo units and 13 storage units, with a total sellout of just under $90 million. Listings have yet to hit the market.
7. The 101 | 101 East 2nd Street | Rybak Development | $43.4 million
Rybak Development is converting the former home of drag cabaret bar Lucky Cheng’s into The 101, a 22-unit condo at 101 East 2nd Street. The firm, led by Sergey Rybak, bought the two buildings that housed the venue for $12.3 million in 2018. According to a website for the project, sales will launch in the first quarter of 2021.
8. 163 East 62nd Street | Churchill Capital Management | $34.2 million
An Upper East Side townhouse once occupied by Brooke Shields was transformed over the course of several years into a 10-unit boutique condominium, with a projected sellout of just over $34 million. Developer Michael Paul Enterprises initially planned to build just five condos at the site, 163-167 East 62nd Street. In 2018 the firm sold the property to Churchill Capital Management, which is behind the current offering plan.
Sales for the units — priced from $2.5 million for a two-bedroom to $5 million for a penthouse — launched in June, with Douglas Elliman’s Eklund Gomes team handling the marketing.
9. The Westerly, 441 West 37th Street | Happy Living Development | $21.6 million
Happy Living’s Hell’s Kitchen project has a projected sellout of just $21.6 million. The firm filed plans in 2016 to demolish a two-story building at 441 West 37th Street and replace it with an 11-story structure, which will have nine apartments and a first-floor medical facility. Sales have yet to launch, but the building reportedly topped out earlier this year.
10. 350 East 81st Street | New York City Management | $14 million
Rounding out the list is New York City Management’s Upper East Side condominium, which transformed a four-story, single-family house into a three-unit condominium with a projected sellout of $14 million. The property is located between First and Second avenues. Sales have not begun.
Source: TRD analysis of condo plans accepted by the New York attorney general between Jan. 1 and Dec. 4, 2020. Sellout prices are as of Dec. 2.
Correction: The projected sellout of Naftali Group’s Benson project has been revised to $224.7 million, placing it No. 3 in this ranking.