Chicago will have a new mayor: Paul Vallas vs. Brandon Johnson in runoff

Incumbent Lori Lightfoot conceded Chicago’s mayoral race Tuesday, setting up the nation’s third-largest city for a transition of power. Former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas and Cook County Commissioner and Chicago Teachers Union-backed candidate Brandon Johnson will oppose one another in a runoff election April 4.

With Lightfoot out of the runoff, the race sets up a battle between a business-backed candidate in Vallas that the real estate industry is likely to rally around and a self-styled progressive in Johnson.

Vallas has already drawn a six-figure donation from commercial real estate mogul Sam Zell, and Johnson has faced criticism from the industry for proposing new taxes on businesses that bring employees in from the suburbs.

The volume behind the industry’s concerns with Johnson will probably grow louder.

While the Illinois Realtors Association held off on making any official endorsements in the first round of voting, it spent $500,000 on aldermanic races, backing city council candidates aligned with its positions on keeping a state ban on certain rent control regulations in place, opposing an increase of real estate transfer taxes and other issues. The organization may make its preference more clear in the runoff.

Vallas aligned the most of all mayoral frontrunners with the positions of the Chicago Realtors Association, which is part of the state organization.

In addition to Johnson’s support for a $4 per month per commuting employee “head tax” on businesses and surcharge on Metra riders, he hasn’t opposed increasing transfer taxes nor just cause eviction. Johnson also only partially agrees with the Chicago Realtors organization’s position on opposing lifting the ban on rent control, and didn’t answer whether he would oppose forcibly eliminating natural gas-fueled heating systems from buildings.

Vallas, meanwhile, agreed with the realtors association on all issues except for only partially agreeing to support an amendment of aldermanic prerogative that defers development decisions to the alderman in whose ward a proposed project is located, and also only partially agreeing on opposing an end to natural gas forced air systems.

At least one major player in Chicago’s commercial real estate sector, however, is bullish on the city regardless of the outcome in the contest between Vallas and Johnson. While Fulton Street Cos. CEO Alex Najem said the industry will likely rally around Vallas, he admitted he knows little about Johnson yet believes in the market’s resilience with either in office.

“Chicago runs on its own regardless of politics because the people are great,” Najem said. “The politics give it a bad perception because of crime.”