Can Mayor Brandon Johnson Win Back Chicago Real Estate Pros?

Just over halfway through Mayor Brandon Johnson’s term, he’s facing major political headwinds with a recent approval rating of 25 percent and potential candidates already circling to challenge him in the 2026 primary.

The city’s real estate market has been a mixed bag over the course of what could be the mayor’s only term, leading the country in rent growth while landing close to the bottom in rankings of construction activity, recent studies have shown.

So what does the real estate community think of Johnson? The sentiment isn’t much rosier than his poll numbers. And his performance so far could foreshadow some pitfalls that the similarly progressive New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani might face if elected this fall.

“He’s got a heck of an uphill battle against him,” Chicago-based LG Group founder and CEO Brian Goldberg said of Johnson.

High-stakes fights over a transfer tax and an anti-gentrification ordinance soured relations between the industry and Johnson’s administration while some YIMBY-friendly wins have gotten overshadowed.

But not all of the blame for the city’s development stagnation can be placed squarely on the mayor, which players like Goldberg acknowledge.

Investors and lenders have been getting cold feet because of a chaotic property tax system run by Cook County, and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development recently dropped an investigation into the longstanding practice of aldermanic prerogative, an unwritten policy that has been blamed for slow housing progress for decades.

The Real Deal researched several policies and interviewed a selection of real estate professionals and the Deputy Mayor of Economic Development to score the effectiveness of the administration’s real estate-related efforts so far.

Read through the scorecard or jump to a policy of interest here.

Eliminating parking minimums - A
Northwest Side Housing Preservation Ordinance - D
A $1.25 billion affordable housing and economic development bond - B
Real Estate Transfer Tax - F
Cut The Tape permitting efficiency campaign - C
Subsidies for office-to-resi conversions - B
Proposal to allow ADUs citywide - B

1. Eliminating parking minimums

The policy: In a win for developers, City Council passed an ordinance that eliminates minimum parking requirements in much of the city.

The ordinance expanded developers’ ability to forgo parking anywhere in the city that is served by public transit, including in residential neighborhoods. Parking minimums still apply in non-transit served areas but developers can request exceptions.

The ordinance was originally proposed by Alderman Daniel La Spata and backed by the Mayor.

Real Estate POV: Reducing parking requirements has been tested successfully in other cities as a way to increase density while reducing development costs and some in Chicago are taking notice of the change.

“Construction lenders will be able to get more aggressive with pricing and more deals will pencil out,” said Alex Cohen, an associate with Interra Realty.

The administration’s take: The new parking policy is part of a broader goal to increase density throughout the city.

“Parking may not seem as sexy but it can create additional density, as well as shave off some of the costs that developers have,” said Deputy Mayor of Economic Development Kenya Merritt.

Grade: A

The policy is an evidenced-backed way to increase density and ultimately housing supply which is a win for developers and politicians alike. Now the ball is in the real estate community’s court to test the process out. If tweaks to the policy are needed, they’ll be less substantial and easier to implement than the initial ordinance.

2. Northwest Side Housing Preservation Ordinance

The Policy: When two Alderman made an about-face on an anti-gentrification pilot program on the Northwest side, it signaled a growing hesitancy to follow through with more progressive real estate policies.

The Northwest Side Housing Preservation Ordinance, which was developed by a group of Aldemen, created a pilot area in parts of Logan Square, Avondale, Hermosa, Humboldt Park, West Town and Pilsen. In it, tenants were given the right of first refusal if a landlord sells a building and existing demolition fees were increased for developers seeking to replace multi-unit buildings with single family homes.

The area lost 6 percent of its two- to six-flat buildings between 2013 and 2018, according to the DePaul Institute for Housing Studies.

But after outcry from longtime property owners, city council later voted to remove parts of the 31st and 36th wards from the pilot area.

Real Estate POV:

The anti-gentrification ordinance often gets cited as a dividing line between real estate players and the administration in general, even though it didn’t originate from the mayor’s office.

“It affects people that have owned homes here for years and years when Logan Square was a lot rougher,” Sotheby’s broker Joe Freeman said. “The hoops and obstacles you have to go around with that ordinance before you sell a property are pretty insane.”

The administration’s take:

Merritt pointed to $8 billion worth of projects that have advanced through the city’s Planning Commission so far this year as evidence that the city’s policies are not having a chilling effect on overall growth and investment.

“We recognize that business and driving our economy can happen in an equitable way, and so far, we’ve been able to realize that. Those two things can live and exist at the same time,” Meritt said.

Grade: D

The mayor was not a vocal supporter or detractor of the ordinance but staying on the sidelines cost him an opportunity to shore up political capital with people on either side of the debate.

3. A $1.25 billion affordable housing and economic development bond

The policy: A $1.25 billion bond aimed at funding affordable housing was a hallmark of Johnson’s campaign. Unlike some of his other high-profile proposals, this one earned the endorsement of industry groups like Illinois Realtors.

Since it passed in 2024, the bond has funded the creation of a city-run revolving loan fund for affordable housing known as the Green Social Housing program and subsidies for developers building housing on vacant lots known as the Missing Middle program.

Real Estate POV: The bond program’s payoff relies on the expiration of most TIF or Tax increment financing districts.

TIF districts allow developers to use property tax revenue generated by a project to offset certain infrastructure costs. In some areas they have set off a wave of new projects while in others they have failed to entice developers. They’ve also been criticized for siphoning taxes away from entities like Chicago Public Schools.

Industry groups like Illinois Realtors were okay with the city phasing out certain TIFs to fund the bond but other players worry about the impact of losing access to the tool. About 40 percent of the city’s TIF district are set to expire in the next three years and city finance officials have said extensions will be considered on a case-by-base basis.

“Is nobody using it because developers don’t need it or is nobody using it because the people who need it don’t know it exists, or know how to access it?” said Corey Oliver, CEO of Community Venture Investment Corp.

Others question whether the city can boost affordable housing as cost-effectively as private developers can, given the extra scrutiny the city places on publicly-backed projects.

“The only restrictions should be that they pass inspections and that everything is done according to code,” South Side Builders Association President Andy Schcolnik said. “But they create this race where it’s impossible to get to the finish line.”

The administration’s take:

The bond’s approach to promoting housing comes in two forms: a pilot program funding direct grants of up to $150,000 for developers repurposing vacant lots and a revolving loan fund for mixed-income housing projects. Both bring down construction costs for developers more than if the developer had relied on the Federal Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program instead, Merrit said.

“[LIHTC] certainly comes with a lot of requirements that are imposed by the federal government in terms of how you implement the affordability portion of it and so that drives up the cost per unit,” Meritt said. “But when you think about other other models, like our Missing Middle program or what we’re going to be doing with Green Social Housing, those costs per unit are more in alignment with what you’ll see in the private market.”

Grade: B

Passing the bond was a major feat but deploying the funds efficiently to help re-fill the city’s development pipeline will determine its success. Plus, the full impact of phasing out TIF hasn’t been felt yet.

4. The Transfer Tax

The policy: Perhaps the most controversial plan to come out of the mayor’s office so far was a proposed increase to the transfer tax on property sales over $1 million which was dubbed the “Bring Chicago Home,” initiative.

The tax, which was sent to a citywide vote in March 2024, was defeated at the ballot box in part thanks to a well-funded opposition campaign led by industry groups like Illinois Realtors and the Neighborhood Building Owners Association.

Real Estate POV: Funding from the tax was going to be used to address homelessness, although critics questioned if the plan was detailed enough to warrant support.

“How are you going to use this transfer tax to actually house the homeless? It was just a lackadaisical plan, and I think he shot for the moon and landed in the mountains,” Freeman said.

Additionally, at a time when construction starts are at historic lows and institutional lenders are sitting on the sidelines, opponents to the plan argued it would stifle economic growth in the city.

“A lot of people who have money in Chicago have had it in their family for generations … a lot of people would have stayed in their spot for a long time until that mansion tax would have been repealed,” Freeman said.

The administration’s take:

The city’s policies thread the needle of enticing investment and promoting equity, Merrit said.

“The city is open for business, we’re just not for sale,” Meritt said, quoting Johnson. “We’ve put in place policies, initiatives and practices that demonstrate that we are pro-business, that we are pro-development.”

Grade: F

For some players, the transfer tax fight cemented an “us-against-them” mentality between the industry and the administration. Even developer-friendly wins passed after the transfer tax vote have been cast in a negative light by skeptics. Proponents of the tax feel let down by the vote and for both sides of the debate, perception is reality.

5. The Cut The Tape campaign

The policy: One of the mayor’s earliest priorities was issuing an executive order to streamline processes for approving both residential and commercial building projects. The program, known as the, “Cut The Tape” campaign, targeted 14 different departments.

Real Estate POV:

Many developers identified little meaningful change in how long it takes to get shovels in the ground, especially for affordable housing projects.

“The mayor’s Cut The Red Tape campaign was a facade and lip service,” Goldberg said. “The new Planning Commissioner, Ciere Boatright, and some of the staff changes there have been significantly better and more efficient than past administrations but I can’t necessarily credit Brandon Johnson.”

The same sentiment applies to rehabs, Schcolnik said. “It’s like a steeple chase … you’ve got to be jumping through hoops all the time,” he said.

The administration’s take:

In a one-year review of the program, Boatright said the Plan Commission has cut review timelines from 135 to 79 days and her department has accelerated rezoning and land disposition, moving more than 1,000 properties toward new uses.

Grade: C

Changes are happening. Whether they’re happening fast enough or who can take all the credit for them is open for debate but the city has committed to continuing to make changes based on feedback from developers.

6. Subsidies for office-to-resi conversions

The policy: One of real estate’s early wins during Johnon’s term came when he decided to continue a program to subsidize office-to-residential conversions along LaSalle Street that was originally proposed by his predecessor, Lori Lightfoot. Johnson had initially put the program, known as LaSalle Street Reimagined, on hold but as office foreclosures continued to surge and the city’s vacancy rate remained stuck above 25 percent, the administration picked up where Lightfoot left off.

To apply for the program, developers must set aside 30 percent of the units in their project as affordable. So far, six projects totalling over 1,800 units have been approved and the first one broke ground at 79 West Monroe in March.

The city-backed projects alone will convert nearly 2 million square feet of office space into residences. While helpful, CBRE found the central business district alone has 40 million square feet of vacant office space as of the second quarter of 2025.

Real Estate POV: Goldberg said he is happy that money is getting set aside for the program but questions whether its impact will be limited to LaSalle Street. Goldberg’s firm LG Group led an office-to-residential conversion at 330 South Wells years before LaSalle Street Reimagined took effect but it recently ran into trouble when it was hit with a $27 million foreclosure this June.

“This amount of money, applied to only a few projects, is meaningful to those projects specifically and will not have much of an impact on such a large expanse of dense urban city space,” Goldberg said.

The administration’s take: Since approving the six initial projects funded by the program, the upcoming subsidized conversions have spurred a wave of eight new privately-funded conversion proposals, Merritt said.

“Now we have a total of 14 projects downtown that are taking vacant commercial space and pivoting it to residential, creating density and making our downtown a neighborhood.” she said.

Grade: B

Any effort to reduce office space and create more housing is a win for the loop and the fact that both subsidized and non-subsidized projects are moving forward shows the program is working as intended. The overall impact on the downtown vacancy rate will be an important metric in evaluating the program’s success in the future.

7. Allowing ADUs

The policy: Chicago is reviving a citywide plan to legalize coach houses and other accessory dwelling units, a move that could reshape residential density rules — and reignite political tensions — across the city.

A proposal currently making its way through City Hall would remove zoning restrictions that have prohibited ADUs on many lots citywide since the 1950s. A pilot program was instated in 2021 with mixed results.

Real Estate POV: Industry players welcome the idea of expanding ADU zoning but question its overall impact.

“I know a lot of my North Side colleagues like the ADU program and they felt like the expansion of it was necessary for us on the South Side,” Oliver said. “But we have other headaches and issues here when we’re looking at sustainable development.”

The administration’s take:

ADUs will compliment the city’s density goals, but will not be the only solution city leaders pursue.

“The mayor is driving us to create a wide swath of options for people where people can live and ADUs gives us the ability to do just that,” Merritt said.

Grade: B

Changing zoning to allow more density is an important way to spur development and bring housing costs down, but policies allowing ADUs in other areas of Chicago and across the U.S. have had mixed results so far.