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Across the San Francisco Bay Area, luxury homes are in such high demand, an increasing amount aren’t making it to the open market.
The biggest private-sale gainers were counties hugging the central bay and northern cities where AI companies have minted a new generation of wealthy buyers willing to pay whatever it takes.
A TRD Data analysis of closed luxury residential sales (defined as $3 million or more) across two 12-month periods (May 15, 2024 – May 14, 2025 and May 15, 2025 – May 14, 2026) found that Alameda County’s off-market volume surged 125 percent year over year, while San Francisco jumped 71 percent. Santa Clara was the lone holdout, slipping 5 percent.
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The trend reflects a market reshaped by AI wealth. Flush with stock gains and startup payouts, wealthy buyers are chasing homes near the region’s tech hubs. With thin inventory, many are striking deals before homes ever hit listings.
“It blows my mind,” said luxury broker Andrew Oldham of Compass’s the Oldham Group. “I don’t know if there’s ever been a time that I can remember where a home that’s a $10 million home can sell off-market in a second.”
Oldham stated that wealth generated from the AI boom is creating more buyers in the $3 million and above range where private-luxury sales are the most common.
No market illustrates that shift better than San Francisco. Off-market luxury volume climbed from $606 million to just over $1 billion in a year. Private deal count rose from 98 to 158, while the average transaction grew from $6.2 million to $6.6 million.
In today’s market, buyers with cash to spend aren’t waiting for homes to appear. They are more than willing to move fast on locking up homes in areas like San Francisco where inventory is scarce even if that means paying a premium, according to Oldham.
“There’s so much demand for these houses,” said The Agency’s luxury agent Tracy McLaughlin. “Somebody begs you to get in — they run in — they throw a bunch of money.”
The biggest city-level gains clustered along the Peninsula, where proximity to AI employers has become its own luxury amenity. Eight of the 13 cities were in that location.
Menlo Park, Palo Alto and San Mateo saw jumps of 31.7, 14.2 and 7.2 percent, respectively.
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But AI alone doesn’t explain everything. Even in Silicon Valley, where AI wealth is plentiful, markets with more available inventory saw fewer buyers resort to private deals.
Santa Clara’s off-market volume slipped nearly 5 percent to $643.4 million. Cities within the county like Los Altos (-22.1 percent) and Mountain View (-40.6 percent) dropped the most, but that decline was not due to a weaker overall luxury market as all public and private listings increased from $8.9 billion to $9.1 billion county-wide.
Inventory contributed to keeping a majority of Santa Clara luxury deals marketed, allowing buyers more options and sellers the freedom to opt for higher exposure on their asset.
“I think down in the South Bay, because of our market, I think there’s a little bit less of a fear of missing out,” said Coldwell Banker agent Andy Meunier, who sold over $100 million in the county over the past year.
The inventory gap helps explain the divergence. Active listings in San Jose, Sunnyvale and Santa Clara metropolitan are up 6 percent from the previous year and have increased every month thus far in 2026, per Realtor.com. San Francisco, on the other hand, is down 17.4 percent compared to the year prior.
Meunier stated that those differing market conditions are a big reason wealthy, tech-centered buyers will continue to pursue more off-market opportunities.
“Right now, everywhere you go, you hear how hot the San Francisco market is.”