Editor’s note: Trumpeting the alarm

The leading Republican candidate for president of the United States says he wants to punch protesters in the face, retweets quotes from Benito Mussolini, cyber-bullies detractors, fails to disavow the leader of the Ku Klux Klan until pressured to do so and says he could “stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters.” And that was all just in the last few weeks.

There are decades’ worth of fodder to draw from to launch an aggressive attack campaign against Donald Trump. His campaign rhetoric aside, he’s sucked up the media spotlight over the last four decades — with his hair, his style and his WrestleMania appearances (remember those?) all overshadowing his real estate holdings, which are modest in New York.

So why haven’t we seen a Trump attack ad yet? The Republican party’s biggest donors and leadership, who are all squarely lined up against Trump, seem to be paralyzed, “gripped by a nearly incapacitating [power] vacuum and a paralytic sense of indecision,” as the Times recently noted.

Things have gone wacky.

And while the field of Republican presidential contenders has gone off the deep end, the global economy has gotten wacky, too — not in the same cartoonish fashion, of course, and with a more immediate effect on the New York real estate market. (Get ready for our analysis of the presidential candidates’ impact on NYC real estate in the April issue.)

In this month’s cover story, reporter Konrad Putzier breaks down the pressing global issues that could impact the NYC real estate market. The effects could be large. Foreign buyers had a hand in 35 percent of all investment sales transactions in Manhattan last year. And in the residential sector, foreign buyers have fueled the luxury condo boom, paving the way for areas like Billionaires’ Row.

In the piece, we examine the slowing Chinese economy, the sputtering of oil-backed economies, the rise of the U.S. dollar, interest rate hikes and a tanking global CMBS market. Check out the story on page 36.

As a result of all this tumult, residential brokers are turning their focus to domestic buyers, singing a similar refrain as their Miami counterparts did when foreign buyers began drying up there more than a year ago. Brokers contend that domestic buyers are sensing an opening after losing deals to all-cash foreign buyers for so long. Whether that will be an ongoing spur to the market remains to be seen. Check out page 22.

In any case, demand has weakened. Elliman honcho Howard Lorber recently summed it up like this: “In Miami on the beach or in New York on the park, there are more $20 million buyers than $40 million buyers, and more $10 million [buyers] than $5 million, and more $2 million than $5 million.”

What that means for developers chasing the uber-luxury market is up in the air at the moment. The Zeckendorf brothers, who we profile on page 32, will be a good test case.   

We look at their latest project, 520 Park Avenue — their most ambitious venture since developing 15 Central Park West, the most successful condo project ever built in New York. But it comes at a time of more competition and changed market conditions.

Meanwhile, we also take a look at Airbnb’s impact on NYC real estate (page 50) and sit down with the ever-enterprising Stephen Siegel (page 44).

Finally, check out our first-ever Long Island Market Report, included along with this issue. It’s a great read that will give you a good sense of the big players, big deals and what’s going on in the overall market on the Island. You’ll be surprised by how many big NYC players are also active in Long Island. I certainly was.

And lastly, get ready for The Real Deal’s first event in Canada next month. Our March 30th showcase in Toronto will feature 25-plus U.S. developments and panels covering the South Florida market for sun-deprived Canucks who are among the biggest buyers in the region. They may be quiet, but Canadians are also the biggest buyers of commercial real estate in NYC, and our panels will focus on investment sales and finance as well.

Of course, you might want to stay in Canada longer if Trump is our next president.

Do we really want to see the Oval Office decked out in gold and brass and the presidential seal redesigned to include a giant “Trump” logo?

Enjoy the issue.