California lost 500K residents in first two years of pandemic

Population drop includes nearly 700K more move-outs than move-ins

People leaving California due to increase housing costs during the first two years of the pandemic

(Illustration by The Real Deal with Getty)

TRD Staff

Feb 16, 2023, 5:46 PM

More than 500,000 residents poured out of California during the pandemic, where the population drop was second only to New York, which lost 15,000 more people during the same period, according to Census data.

Between April 2020 and July 2022, the state’s population decline picked up speed, with the number of residents leaving surpassing those moving in by nearly 700,000, the Los Angeles Times reported, citing population experts.

The biggest reason for the exodus is the state’s high housing costs.

But other reasons include long commutes and crowds, crime and pollution in big cities. The increased ability to work remotely — and not having to live near a large urban center — was a factor.

As the pandemic eases, the exit turnstiles may be slowing – and it could be a few years before the Golden State sees robust population growth. One expert said there could be no net change this year, with positive growth beginning in 2024.

From July 2021 to July 2022, California lost 211,000 people, according to data from the state Department of Finance. More than half — 113,048 — were from Los Angeles County.

The number of people in California fell 0.54 percent to 39 million. The third year of losses is attributed to a sharp drop in migration to California and 100,000 total coronavirus pandemic deaths since 2020.

In the year leading up to July 2021, L.A. County lost 159,621 people, a loss of 1.6 percent, nearly all because of domestic migration. San Francisco lost 54,814 residents, a loss of 6.3 percent, the steepest county decline in the state.

The latest Census data point to those states that have seen population gains even as California’s has shrunk.

During the two-year pandemic span, net migration from the state surpassed that of the next highest state, New York, by 43,000 people. Nearby states such as Utah have sought to discourage Californians from moving there. A similar story is playing out in Nevada, where California migrants are seeking to re-create their lifestyle.

California gained 157,000 more people from natural change — the difference in number of births and deaths — than New York did, making New York’s total population loss greater.

Much of the net migration out of California was “people seeking safe refuge during the pandemic” with parents or friends, causing people to “get out of the central cities,” Dowell Myers, a professor of policy, planning and demography at USC, told the Times.

Even as the pandemic has receded, young people continue to leave California, he said.

The state “still attracts them, it just can’t hold them as well,” Myers said, noting that many young people come in as renters, then leave the state for lower housing prices elsewhere. “People who are leaving are much more likely to be homeowners after they leave.”

He suggested that increased immigration, more births and softening housing prices should help boost the state’s population.

“The clock is ticking on millennials,” Myers said of those who are waiting to have children, often because of housing and cost-of-living pressures. “People tend to have babies more when they’re optimistic.”

As California’s population has shrunk, some of the nation’s most populous states have added to their populations.

The states with the highest population increases between April 2020 and July 2022 were Texas, which gained 884,000 residents, and Florida, which gained 707,000 people.

— Dana Bartholomew