Los Angeles County lost more people during the pandemic than any big county in the nation, according to a study. A big reason for the exodus: high housing costs.
The number of people in the nation’s most populous county shrank by 2.9 percent during 27 months, from just over 10 million on April 1, 2020 to just over 9.7 million on July 1, 2022, the Orange County Register reported, citing a study by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The decline mirrors a broad population collapse last seen in Southern California during the aerospace crash of the early 1990s.
While populations in the Inland Empire grew or held steady, the pandemic-era flight from Los Angeles and a smaller drop-off in Orange County prompted a broad contraction in the combined population of Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties.
Overall, the four-county region dipped 1.4 percent to just over 17.5 million. During the 27-month window tracked in the Census report, the region lost 9,666 residents a month during the pandemic period.
Orange County contracted by 1.1 percent to 3.151 million residents, according to the study. San Bernardino County grew incrementally, gaining 0.5 percent to 2.193 million. Riverside County grew 2.3 percent to 2.473 million.
Pandemic deaths played a moderate role in the decline. Health agencies in the four counties reported that about 58,000 people died of COVID-19 during the 27-month time period, accounting for roughly one in six people no longer living in the four-county region.
The Southern California decline was in line with the state, which lost 1.2 percent of its population.
That ran counter to the broad national trend, which saw the nation’s headcount grow by 0.8 percent during the 24 months that ended Dec. 31, 2022, according to Census data.
Such population shifts, if they continue to play out after the pandemic, could have long-term financial consequences.
Political representation, in Sacramento and Washington, D.C., is based on population. Same for federal grants for everything from freeways to schools to healthcare.
The recent numbers that show higher-priced counties shrinking and lower-priced counties gaining – suggest a big part of the exodus is about money.
Specifically, it’s about housing costs.
Darin Chidsey, chief operating officer for the Southern California Association of Governments, said that people who left Southern California prior to and during the pandemic have said they did so because they can’t afford a home. Other experts agreed.
Such long-standing trends are why the state continues to push cities and counties to allow development of more affordable housing, especially in higher-priced markets such as Los Angeles and Orange counties.
Chidsey said such efforts are starting to pay off.
“For the first time, long-range projections for total housing coming online are about 2.5 percent higher than expected,” Chidsey said. “It’s starting to resonate. If you have housing, and you have jobs – which this area has – you’ll have growth.”
— Dana Bartholomew
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