What goes up, comes down.
Miami-area real estate’s upward momentum painted the pages of The Real Deal for years. Vulnerabilities started popping up last year, and our team has kept watch on the trend lines, which now show plunging residential dollar volumes and sales as well as new development projects lingering without financing. But the signals don’t create a simple story. In this issue, South Florida Bureau Chief and Senior Reporter Katherine Kallergis translates the mixed messages and contradictory details to explain what’s up, down and sideways in the region.
The possibility of a Mayor Zohran Mamdani also spun the industry around, and not just in New York City. The self-declared socialist clinched the Democratic primary over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo by 7 percentage points in late June. That countered an idea, which took hold last year when San Francisco elected Mayor Daniel Lurie, that progressive cities might crave moderate mayors. But one doesn’t make a trend, and now observers are whipping their heads back east to wonder if New York might take an opposite political approach, and what that says about the moment.
Mamdani’s real estate policies include a rent freeze and higher taxes. Still, it’s not the first instance of local policies threatening to burden the wealthy, who, in turn, threaten to leave. Some Florida officials and developers hope the migration occurs this time — it might buoy them. Columnist Erik Engquist has been taking an early look at how real estate in the city could fare.
Even before Mamdani’s promised freeze, rent-stabilized housing was a tough bet. Yet during the last year or so, PH Realty and Rockledge have picked up more than 3,000 units. They bought at a discount and are betting that rents are just high enough for a slim profit margin. Their backstop sounds a little like the potential future mayor’s. If enough buildings fall into distress, PH Realty’s principal told Senior Reporter Suzannah Cavanaugh, “New York City will be forced to take over all private housing.” Here’s her story.
Meanwhile, two stories of real estate succession play out in the issue. Jon Paul Pérez, son of Related Group’s Jorge Pérez, is working beside his father to shape the next chapter at the company; Kallergis interviews him for this month’s The Closing. And at 80 Clarkson, New York City’s “it” condo, Artie Zeckendorf, member of the famous family’s fourth generation, appears to be taking the reins. No contracts are out, but the condo project’s finances look good so far. Still, it’s an open question how the handoff will go and what, exactly, the third generation is passing on, as the family continues a transformation from “world-building developers to careful tacticians and brand managers,” as reporter Jake Indursky puts it in his piece.
Elsewhere in the issue, our Hamptons section highlights beachier business topics: how Mary Lou’s hopes to bring a Palm Beach style of “partying in private” to Montauk; how the surge in pet ownership has strained the rental market; and which well-known names are buying and selling their properties.
Last but not least, our cover story is an ambitious guide to the people and companies caught up in a billion-dollar mortgage fraud scandal that we’ve been covering for a year and a half. Some of the schemes required a host of players. There were sponsors to buy properties, straw men to flip them to, lenders to provide loans at the second — higher — sales price, title companies to shield transactions’ details from lenders and more. Senior Reporter Keith Larsen’s “yearbook” introduces the participants and explains how they connect to one another. For some, the fall back to earth has taken the form of prison sentences.
While I’ve been assigning and editing features since joining TRD in the fall of 2023, this is my first editor’s note. I’m glad you’re reading, and enjoy the issue!