Residential Industry Leaders Predictions for 2004

The Real Deal asked industry leaders in New York residential real estate what they are excited or concerned about in 2004. From touting hot neighborhoods like Hudson Square to concern over rising interest rates, here’s what they had to say:

Daren Hornig

President & CEO

Dwelling Quest

What’s Hot? Differentiation and customer service – not necessarily going with the biggest and going with the best. People are sick of the chest pounding.

What’s Not Hot? Mass marketing and blowing advertising budgets. Saying ‘we’re making so much money we’re going to blow it on our ego.’ Taking out full-page ads in The New York Times with a picture of a nice Humvee-taxi cab. If someone is looking for a one bedroom in the East 30s, they are not going to care about what services you offer in the Hamptons.

What are you excited about in the coming year? With technology in residential real estate, you almost laugh at what is not being done. There is money and opportunity and companies are not leveraging it.

What are you worried about in the coming year? Interest rates worry me. Unemployment worries me. Terrorism worries me. Anything I’m not in control of worries me.

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Dottie Herman

President & CEO

Douglas Elliman

What are you excited about in the coming year? The economy is starting to pick up. People are feeling better. I think it’s going to be a strong real estate year.

What are you worried about in the coming year? My only concern is finding more space for my company.

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Andrew Heiberger

President & Chairman

Citi Habitats

What’s Hot? Definitely Chelsea. It’s on fire. And the Lower East Side.

What’s Not Hot? For rentals, the Jersey waterfront and Northern Manhattan, including Harlem. The area above 100th Street was very heavily talked about, and was a direct beneficiary of the Manhattan overflow. When the rental market in Manhattan lightened up, it almost had a vacuum effect.

What are you excited about in the coming year? I expect the rental market to come back roaring back. Well, maybe not roaring, but it will growl back. Top corporations and banks – all indications are that they are hiring. Bonuses this year are not incredible, but they are a sign of stability.

What are you worried about in the coming year? I think interest rates will stay down because it’s an election year. But if interest rates were to rise prior to the Presidential election, that would have a dramatic halting effect on sales. There is 15 percent additional cost caused by a 1 percent increase in interest rates.

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Robby Browne

Senior Vice President

The Corcoran Group

What’s Hot? Combining apartments. I can’t tell you how many people have called me recently who want to try to buy their neighbor’s apartment.

What are you excited about in the coming year? New condominium developments in rediscovered New York neighborhoods.

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Christopher Mathieson

Co-Owner & Managing Partner

J.C. Deniro & Associates

What’s Hot? Everybody wants a condo now. On the Far West Side, Tribeca, West Village and in Chelsea. People don’t want to deal with co-op boards anymore. It’s so dated to be restricted on those levels.

What’s Not Hot? New Jersey. Jacuzzi tubs. Cookie-cutter apartments. High common charges.

What are you excited about in the coming year? Wireless technology is getting bigger. Air filtration systems [to deal with mold issues] are getting big, as they should be.

What are you worried about in the coming year? I’m worried about surpassing my personal goal of over $100 million in sales in 2004.

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Elizabeth Stribling

President

Stribling & Associates

What’s Hot? Murray Hill is absolutely changing. It’s getting to be younger professionals and families down there, too. There is a restaurant scene coming in. You can find some of the best values per square foot there.

What are you excited about in the coming year? Personally, I’m very optimistic – it’s the Year of the Monkey in 2004, and Stribling was founded in the Year of the Monkey in 1980. I was also born in the Year of the Monkey, and I was told for a Monkey person in a Monkey year, the heavens will open up.

What are you worried about in the coming year? There is such a lack of property. We’re all looking for more listings.

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Pam Liebman

CEO

The Corcoran Group

What’s Hot? Hudson Square is emerging as the next really hot neighborhood. Lots of projects are happening down there.

What are you excited about in the coming year? We are looking at a record setting year in 2004. Bonuses will cause a lot more buyers to enter into the market. As there is more talk about interest rates expected to go up, people will buy even harder.

What are you worried about in the coming year? Lack of inventory.

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Jeff Wolk

Co-Founder & Co-Principal

Fenwick-Keats

What’s Hot? As a result of more sophisticated buyers, there will be greater emphasis on accreditation and continuing education for New York City agents, as is the case with the rest of the country. Also, there is also a distinct rise in the purchase of townhouses for single families – their original use.

What’s Not Hot? Overpriced listings. Sophisticated sellers have greater access to, and are more inclined to know about, comparable properties, thanks in part to the Internet.

What are you worried about in the coming year? The potential institutionalization of the real estate industry. The more large companies merge and gobble up smaller ones, the less personalized and consumer-centric the services offered.

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