At the risk of overpaying, investors have shown recently they are willing to shell out top dollar for major office buildings to be part of the strong Midtown market.
Expectations are high for a significant rent spike in the next 12 months, say market watchers, but the return may not be enough for investors who are paying up to $1,000 per square foot for office buildings.
“Many of the investments taking place right now are being priced with the expectations of pretty significant rent growth in the near future,” said Dan Fasulo, director of market analysis at Real Capital Analytics. “If the rent doesn’t grow, then we’ll see a situation where investors may feel like they’ve overpaid.”
While Manhattan office rent has grown more than 1 percent per month for the past two years — a sign the rent spike is already here — investors are confidently making increasingly costlier purchases when looked at from a dollar-per-square-foot basis, said James Murphy, executive managing director of capital markets at GVA Williams. They are also getting less return for their money, as seen in lower capitalization rates, the annual income from a building divided by the purchase price.
Istithmar, an affiliate of the Dubai government, paid $1,000 per square foot for the 1.2 million square feet of Class A office space at 280 Park Avenue, for a total of $1.2 billion at a 3.6 percent cap rate, marking a new record for a property of this size, said Fasulo. The deal closed last month.
Another costly buy on a per-square-foot basis was the purchase of 660 Madison Avenue, also last month, by Broadway Partners. The 255,000-square foot building was sold by the Brener Group of Beverly Hills and Mermel & McClain for $220 million, or $863 per square foot. “Pushing the high numbers is the increase in replacement costs — what it costs to build a brand new building,” Fasulo said.
Overall, the average price per square foot paid for office space in Manhattan has risen dramatically. The number has jumped 70 percent to $582 per square foot this year, from $409 last year, according to Real Capital Analytics.
Another recent deal well above the average was Boston Properties’ $400 million purchase of the remainder of the iconic Citigroup Center at 53rd Street and Lexington Avenue, previously owned by Allied Partners. Allied owned 35 percent of the 59-story 1.65 million square foot office building, selling their share for approximately $700 per square foot.
The demand for significant office space is so great that investors like Istithmar are willing to buy at low cap rates. Istithmar also announced its purchase of the former Knickerbocker Hotel at 1466 Broadway for $300 million last month. The 298,000-square-foot office building sold for $1,007 per square foot. But Istithmar is reportedly not banking on high office rents to justify the purchase, instead planning to convert the building back into a hotel.
Average cap rates dropped to 5.3 percent this year from 5.8 percent in 2005, although the drop from 6.9 percent in 2004 was more drastic, according to Real Capital Analytics.
Other significant sales with low cap rates include the Helmsley Building at 230 Park Avenue, which sold last year with a 4.2 percent cap rate. The MetLife Building at 200 Park Avenue, which set the all-time record for a property sale in Manhattan at $1.7 billion last year, was sold with a cap rate of 4.5 percent.
“Investors know that with the tight supply, rents will continue moving upward,” said Jon Epstein, senior director of the capital markets group at Cushman & Wakefield.
Lack of new office development in Midtown is likely to drive up rents further.
“To put it in perspective, the 3 million square feet [of new development planned] in Midtown, a few buildings, is a drop in the bucket,” Fasulo said. “There has been nothing significant to have an impact on the supply part of the equation.”
Fasulo also cited the redevelopment of 522 Fifth Avenue, a 545,000 square foot building purchased in May by Broadway Partners for $420 million, or $770 per square foot. It’s a hefty price tag for 23-story building that is currently vacant, says Fasulo.
“It’s a good representation,” he said, “of how confident investors are in the strength of the market to achieve that type of pricing.”