Q&A: Which area has greatest upside for investors?

Lower Manhattan, rental projects tops for investors

Lower Manhattan ranks as the best neighborhood for investors in today’s real estate market — and don’t just take Larry Silverstein’s word for it.

In a Q & A this month, The Real Deal spoke to the World Trade Center leaseholder and other prominent real estate figures about the neighborhoods and sectors of New York City real estate with the greatest upside.

Several of those interviewed said Lower Manhattan is still largely undervalued, while others pointed to the Bronx as a place where investors will see the biggest gains in the next couple of years.

Meanwhile, rental development was mentioned by many as their sector of choice, after several years in which developers eschewed rental development in favor of condo construction.

The experts said the condo market is still strong generally, though some expressed concern about condo development in emerging outer-borough neighborhoods in particular.

Here’s what they had to say:

Larry Silverstein
CEO and president, Silverstein Properties

What is one investment play that most people don’t know about but should?

Rental housing has an extraordinary future. The last several years have seen a focus on the development of condos, almost to the exclusion of rental housing, and the rental market has now begun to reflect an enormous shortage of supply. This has caused a major increase in rental values. People are coming here from all parts of the country. And students are coming to New York in record numbers to attend the universities in New York.

What sector of real estate and which neighborhood are the best for investment right now in New York?

Office, residential and hotels in Lower Manhattan. The advent of 10 million square feet of new office space at the World Trade Center, plus the 2.5 million square feet of Goldman Sachs space, is going to have a major beneficial impact on demand for all types of space.

Andrew Oliver
managing director and principal, Sonnenblick Goldman

What is the worst sector for investment right now in New York?

There is no worst. The residential condo market is the least strong. It’s still good, but not as strong as these other markets. One reason is there has been more development than everything else. There has been very little office, hotel, retail and residential rental development.

Which neighborhood or part of New York City will see the best return on investment right now?

It seems there are strong markets all over New York. Residential rental projects would do well throughout the city. Residential condo projects probably do better in more established neighborhoods.

What is one investment play that most people don’t know about but should?

I think the biggest potential [play] is rental apartments, but because the land costs are so high the economics are difficult to work out. If the rents continue to rise, it will work out. People should have more patience because the current returns will be low. But in the long term it will be a very good investment.

What is the most overhyped type of investment out there?

Maybe residential condos in pioneering locations, just because the construction costs are the same no matter where you build and the land price differential is just not that great right now.

Paul Massey
founding partner, Massey Knakal Realty Services

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Which neighborhood or part of New York City will see the best return on investment right now?

The Bronx has huge upside potential.

What is the best sector for investment right now in New York?

Retail and office are both hot right now. Office rents have been continuously rising with little supply scheduled to come online in the next five years. Demand for retail, especially in the boroughs, has been similarly strong.

Which is the worst?

Land and buildings suitable for luxury condominiums were not in demand during the fourth quarter of 2006. But now a lot of that product is being pursued by investors for affordable housing or hotel/office space.

What is one investment play that most people don’t know about but should?

The secret is out on retail opportunities in the boroughs. But that market historically has been so underserved that primary and secondary retail properties will show continued upside.

What is the most overhyped type of investment out there?

The market has quickly reacted to a need for hotel rooms, with many now in the planning pipeline. Caution in this investment area would be prudent.

Phillip Gesue
acquisitions and development director, Time Equities

What sector of real estate is the best one for investment right now in New York City?

I think they are all good, but it depends on the deal, and good deals are getting harder to find. New York is such a competitive market that as soon as one asset class delivers outsized returns, prices increase and returns moderate.

Which neighborhood or part of New York City will see the best return on investment right now?

I think Lower Manhattan, where there is 7 million square feet of office space under development and where tenants are largely committed [to taking space], is a good place to invest.

Underserved neighborhoods in the outer boroughs are also good places to look because there are no national retail chains and few quality office/residential developments.

Paul Fried
principal, AFC Realty Capital

What is the worst sector for investment right now in New York City?

There aren’t any meaningful industrial and manufacturing opportunities — even in the boroughs. Borough-wide revitalization and residential conversions have made these areas some of the market’s hottest — and most overpriced — for investors.

Which neighborhood or part of New York City will see the best return on investment right now?

For an established market like the Financial District, investment and acquisition opportunities remain well below the cost point of most comparable opportunities in Manhattan’s other submarkets.

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