The Real Deal Miami

South Florida residential market won’t rebound until 2030

By Alexander Britell | March 10, 2010 07:05PM

The South Florida residential real estate market will not rebound to previous highs until 2030, according to a Moody’s prediction. The forecast made something of a stir when it appeared deep in an article on community development districts in Business Week Monday (see chart on the forecast below).

While Moody’s was under a contractual obligation not to release the specific data it had supplied to Bloomberg, it provided The Real Deal with data that supported a reasonably similar forecast — a peak to trough price trajectory that tells of a long road ahead for Florida real estate.

The data was provided with a forecast map upon which the Bloomberg citation was based, along with separate data showing a comparable recovery forecast.

The 2030 number comes from the map compiled by Fiserv, FHFA and Moody’s The map, entitled “Harder Hit Metros Will Take Longer to Recover,” predicts that Florida real estate, specifically South Florida, will not be able to regain its previous price peak until 2030 or later. With the exception of a few counties across the United States, only the Southwest — California, Nevada and Arizona — have regions with such dire predictions. The nationwide recovery prediction is 2020, according to the map.

Additional Moody’s data shows a comparable trajectory.

According to analysis of the single-family home price state and countywide dating back to 1979, when it was $44,760. Florida real estate hit its peak in the fourth quarter of 2005, when the median existing single-family price was $267,910 that is, a median existing home price of $267,910.

The additional set of Moody’s analysis does not show Florida prices regaining that number until, the earliest, the fourth quarter of 2025.