CMBS delinquencies could reach $70 billion by summer

Unpaid commercial mortgage-backed securities delinquencies rose to $47.82 billion in February, up 4 percent from January’s $45.94 billion level and 300 percent over a year ago, according to the latest data from CMBS analysis group RealPoint. The February increase — $1.87 billion — was somewhat of a reprieve, however, from the more than $3.7 billion jumps in several preceding months. Still, CMBS unpaid delinquencies are expected to balloon to between $60 billion and $70 billion by mid-2010, RealPoint said, with retail loans being the greatest contibutor. The delinquency ratio was 6 percent, up from 5.76 percent in January and 1.43 percent in February 2009, and is expected to grow to at least 8 percent by mid-2010. Delinquencies in the distressed 90-plus day, foreclosure and REO categories grew by $2.88 billion in total during the same period.