The Real Deal Miami

National home prices will bottom this summer

But home values in Florida cities continue to decline
May 09, 2012 02:15PM

Home prices nationwide are set to bottom out by the end of summer, according to data released yesterday by Fiserv-Case Shiller. In the final quarter of 2011 prices in 70 markets, making up 18 percent of 384 metro areas, stabilized or increased slightly, and now national home prices are predicted to follow.

Despite the national recovery, home prices continue to decline in certain metros and a full recovery might take up to five years, Fiserv-Case Shiller indicates. Home values in Florida metro areas are expected to fare the worst of major US cities. In Orlando and Jacksonville prices are slated to fall an additional 6 percent between fourth-quarter 2011 to fourth-quarter 2012.

Miami, Miami Beach and Kendall home values will also continue to fall by approximately 0.1 percent over the five year period from first quarter 2011 to first quarter 2016, according to Business Insider. Home prices are down 54.2 percent from their highest point first quarter 2007. The decline is sustained by Miami’s 10.3 percent unemployment rate, which is above the national average, and its median household income of $47,600, which is less than the U.S. average.

Nevertheless, there does appear to be a positive national trend in the housing market. “The recovery this spring and summer will be driven by investors, who buy primarily in lower-cost markets. In the current environment, focusing on mortgage applications is not a true indicator of sales activity, as investors are less likely to finance home purchases via mortgages,” said David Stiff, chief economist at Fiserv Case-Shiller. — Christopher Cameron