Some notions become so ingrained in our thinking that we don’t realize they are wrong.
When someone comes along with a better way, people either cling to misguided beliefs or change. What are the consequences of failing to evolve?
In sports, the results show up on the scoreboard. Teams, coaches and players who adopt better strategies, techniques, training methods and equipment start winning. Those who don’t disappear, along with the old ways.
“Moneyball” is now called analytics, and it’s in every sport. That’s why NFL coaches no longer punt on 4th-and-1 past midfield, and NBA teams attempt 37 three-pointers per game, up from 9 in 1992-93.
It exists in real estate as well.
When I spoke last week to Vanbarton principal Richard A.C. Coles to prepare for our Jan. 29 Salon Series interview, he said the firm can outbid others on conversion plays because Vanbarton has learned how to do them more efficiently.
The methods Vanbarton uses to maximize livable space and minimize cost when turning offices into apartments will eventually predominate because the firms that practice them can bid the highest for sites.
Elected officials are slower to evolve. Unlike in sports and business, there is no scoreboard or bidding process to speed up the process of natural selection. We rely on voters to oust leaders with outdated thinking. Elections are an indirect, imperfect way to improve policy.
Just to take one of many examples:
State Sen. Brian Kavanagh and Assembly member Sarahana Shrestha are pushing a bill to make it easier for localities to adopt rent stabilization, a system that since 1974 has made a mess of New York City’s housing market.
If a tennis player today tried to compete with a 1974 approach — wood racket, minimal training, no nutritionist and outdated tactics — he would be crushed. But Kavanagh and Shrestha, seeking to expand a failed housing strategy, will be re-elected this year. They might not even have an opponent.
What we’re thinking about: Rep. Maxine Waters, in a statement supporting a good, bipartisan housing bill, said, “Too many families are one rent increase away from losing their homes.”
That probably wasn’t intended as a potshot at landlords, but it did seem to say that they trigger homelessness by hiking the rent. That is typically not how it happens.
Homelessness results when people in tight housing markets suffer a financial or personal setback, stop paying their current rent and cannot easily find a new place. The top two explanations people give when seeking shelter beds in New York City are domestic violence and eviction.
Have you heard of anyone becoming homeless because of a rent increase? Send your thoughts to eengquist@therealdeal.com.
A thing we’ve learned: Several weeks after a deed is recorded in New York City, the owner may receive a deceptive “RECORDED DEED NOTICE” from a California company called Property Site. It requests $128 and has a “detach and mail” section at the bottom of the page. In return, duped property owners receive a “property assessment profile” — which consists of information available for free from the city.
Elsewhere…
With the legislative session underway in Albany, the city can ask for the $70 billion in bonding authority that Mayor Zohran Mamdani said during his campaign he needs for his $100 billion, 200,000-unit, union-built affordable housing program.
Or, realizing that Gov. Kathy Hochul is not willing to let the city borrow so much, Mamdani could omit it from his Albany wish list this year.
I doubt the mayor will give up on his dream of building low-rent housing with union labor. He mentioned it just the other day. But something has to give, because Hochul is focused on funding child care and her own housing initiatives, and Mamdani, even with a no-limit credit card, cannot build 200,000 units in 10 years at $500,000 apiece.
How close to those numbers can he get? The state’s Vital Brooklyn project provides a clue.
Just last month, developers L+M Development Partners, Services for the UnderServed, Apex Building Group and RiseBoro finished Alafia Phase 1, a $387 million project with 576 affordable homes in East New York. It also has a 15,000-square-foot clinic and 7,800-square-foot supermarket space, but just dividing the total cost by the number of units comes to $672,000 apiece.
Mamdani’s 10-year timeline might be even less realistic. The request for proposals that yielded Alafia Phase 1 was issued in 2018. The mayor needs to build 347 projects of that size. Better get cracking.
Closing time
Residential: The top residential deal recorded Tuesday was $21 million for a 4,585-square-foot condominium unit at 505 West 19th Street in Chelsea. The property last sold for $17.9 million in 2016. Trish Riedel, Keren Atzlan and Jonathan Isaacs with Reserve Real Estate had the listing.
Commercial: The top commercial deal recorded was $10 million for a 6,750-square-foot house of worship at 726 40th Street in Sunset Park. Christian Heritage Ministries sold the property to Royal Builders.
New to the Market: The highest price for a residential property hitting the market was $16.8 million for a 7,190-square-foot condominium unit at 1355 1st Avenue in Lenox Hill. Its last sale price was $20.7 million in August 2015. Stacey Alvarez of the Sukenik Glazer Team at Compass has the listing.
Breaking Ground: The largest new building permit filed was for a proposed 47,717-square-foot, 70-unit project at 2660 Kingsbridge Terrace in University Heights. Leandro Dickson filed the permit on behalf of the Vaja Group.
— Matthew Elo