Arizona restricts new housing amid groundwater shortage

In a move that signals trouble for the West and other regions grappling with water scarcity, Arizona has announced that it lacks sufficient groundwater to support the already approved housing construction in the Phoenix area. 

State officials have decided to halt the building of new subdivisions, potentially bringing an end to the rapid development that has propelled Phoenix to become the fastest-growing metropolitan region in the United States, the New York Times reported.

The scramble to secure water rights is expected to disrupt Arizona’s real estate market, driving up home prices and jeopardizing the region’s historically affordable housing.

“Housing affordability will be a challenge moving forward,” Spencer Kamps, vice president of legislative affairs for the Home Builders Association of Central Arizona, told the Times.

Governor Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, assured the public that the state is not on the brink of running dry and emphasized that new construction will continue in major cities like Phoenix. 

However, the analysis conducted by the state, which projected groundwater levels over the next century, prompted the decision to restrict future housing developments that rely on wells for water.

Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix and its suburbs, relies on groundwater for over half of its water supply, with the remainder sourced from rivers, aqueducts, and recycled wastewater. Groundwater, however, is a finite resource that takes thousands of years to replenish, according to the outlet.

The impact of the announcement will be most acutely felt in small towns and uninhabited desert areas on the outskirts of the Phoenix metro area, where lower-cost homes are typically built, the Times said.

Developers and cities now face the challenge of finding alternative water sources — such as purchasing water from farmers or Native American tribes, many of whom are already experiencing their own water shortages — to sustain future growth. 

While the immediate growth plans of major cities like Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Mesa may not be severely affected, areas beyond their boundaries, particularly those lacking designated water supplies, will have major obstacles in obtaining approval for housing projects dependent on groundwater.

The groundwater shortage in Arizona is a manifestation of the broader impact of climate change on the American Southwest. 

A prolonged 23-year drought and rising temperatures have contributed to the dwindling water levels of the Colorado River, which supplies water to 40 million people across seven states. Increased evaporation rates and higher water demands for crops under rising temperatures have further strained water resources. 

The state’s response to the crisis includes a reliance on new water conservation measures and alternative water sources. However, some critics argue that Arizona continues to deplete groundwater excessively, with unregulated industrial projects exacerbating the situation. 

“This is the hydrologic disconnect coming home to roost,” Cynthia Campbell, Phoenix’s water-resources management adviser, told the Times. “The reality is, it all came back to catch us.”

Although construction will persist for now, with permits granted for approximately 80,000 unbuilt housing lots, developers and communities likely must confront a future where water accessibility is stretched thin.

— Ted Glanzer