Ultra-luxury soars above wider market slowdown 

The ultra-luxury market managed to stay above the fray of a difficult year for residential real estate.

National home sales over $10 million grew 3.9 percent in the first six months of 2024 compared to the same period last year, according to Compass’ report on the ultra-luxury market. In the first half of 2024, 838 deals were made for $14.6 billion. 

The growth for high-end real estate stands in contrast to the broader residential market, which saw total home sales fall almost 3 percent from 2023 to 2024, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. 

Jonathan Miller, CEO of appraisal firm Miller Samuel, attributed the resilience on the high end to the booming financial markets and the prevalence of cash transactions for the priciest homes, which helps circumvent high mortgage rates. 

While ultra-luxury sales dipped last year, wealthy home buyers were able to draw down on their equity gains in 2024, Miller said. From the beginning of 2023 until now, the S&P 500 has surged roughly 35 percent, even taking into account this week’s dip.

The growth did not extend evenly across the country, but clustered in Florida and certain parts of California. 

Greater Los Angeles, the largest market for ultra-luxury sales with 135 sales totaling $2.7 billion, experienced a 15.6 percent drop in home sales year-over-year. Manhattan, the runner up with 121 total sales for $2.3 billion, saw a 2.4 percent drop in sales from last year. 

The ultra-luxury transactions followed the migration patterns of the rich. Florida had four of the top 10 fastest-growing mature markets, with Southwest Florida — Naples, Bonito Spring and Estero — and Palm Beach saw sales jump over 40 percent year-over-year. 

Broward and Miami Dade County both had ultra-luxury sales increase more than 20 percent as well, while Naples is currently home to America’s priciest listing: the family of late financier John Donahue listed its 9-acre compound asking $295 million in February.

Sales growth mirrored the spike in the wealthy population in the Sunshine State overall. The millionaire population in Miami and West Palm Beach has grown by 75 percent and 90 percent, respectively, from 2012 to 2022, according to a 2023 wealth report.

The sales boom is less about billionaires leaving the Northeast for the South (New York City’s millionaire population grew 40 percent in the same time period), and more about the ultra-wealthy making the warm-weather, tax-friendly location their permanent residence with flashy real estate buys, according to Miller. 

Orange County grew more than 96 percent year over year, with 51 sales over $10 million. The beachy enclave nearly $740 million in total volume. 

Agents attributed the area’s success to unique properties outweighing macroeconomic uncertainties. Compass’ Rob Giem said ultra-luxury buyers “tend to better understand that opportunity is often more important than price.”

Several upstart markets grew exponentially, like Nashville, which counted seven sales over $10 million after notching its first sale in the category last year. 

The country music capital will likely add a record-breaking $15 million condo sale to its tally after the founder of Raising Cane’s, Todd Graves, inked a contract in June for a 4,000-square-foot penthouse. 

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