Brokerage Execs Cite ‘Uncertainty’ During Earnings Calls

Commercial brokerages started the first quarter of 2025 with a bang, building on the momentum from last year. Most posted better-than-expected results, largely thanks to a surge in office leasing and investment sales.

But Trump’s trade policies pumped the brakes on any bullish predictions for the rest of 2025. Instead, chief executives of the largest commercial brokerages leaned heavily on one word — “uncertainty” — during their first-quarter earnings calls and opted not to raise their earnings guidance for the rest of the year.

“Right now, the uncertainty is annoying and concerning, but things are still trading,” said Newmark’s Barry Gosin, as he fielded questions from analysts about the trade policies that his former boss, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, is helping to shape.

The calls took place after the 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs and before the United States and China agreed to a temporary trade war truce on Monday. Newmark’s revenue was up 22 percent year over year, driven by an uptick in leasing and investment sales.

For now, Gosin said deals were continuing to go through despite a slowdown in the CMBS market, as banks seemed to be bridging the gap. But he acknowledged that “potential geopolitical headwinds” could have “a dampening effect” on business going forward.

Meanwhile, CBRE posted $8.9 billion first-quarter revenue, surprising company executives and beating analysts’ expectations. The brokerage ended the quarter with strong pipelines and continued to see strong leasing and sales activity in April, CEO Robert Sulentic said. But some clients pressed pause on large office and industrial leases after the tariffs were announced.

“Things didn’t go from good to bad,” Sulentic said. “Things went from really good to not as good.”

Cushman & Wakefield CEO Michelle MacKay said “the uncertainty in the economy” had yet to have a noticeable impact on business so far. Cushman reported revenue of $2.3 billion, up 5 percent from the first quarter of 2024.

MacKay said most of the firm’s clients are moving ahead with decisions on their pre-Liberation Day timelines. About 5 percent have delayed decisions until later this year.

“We continue to believe that we are at the beginning of a multiyear recovery in commercial real estate,” MacKay said.

JLL posted double-digit revenue growth, benefiting from the same uptick in office leasing and investment sales as competitors. CEO Christian Ulbrich said the firm had noticed some hesitation around closing transactions when President Trump first announced the tariffs, but it was short-lived.

“When we look at the data now for the first quarter and also what we see in April, people have got used to it very quickly, and the declining interest rates are obviously helping here,” Ulbrich said.

Toronto-based Colliers was the only firm to fall just short of analyst expectations. The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.87, missing the estimate of $0.89. Revenue came in at $1.14 billion, slightly below analyst projections of $1.15 billion.

“We were, I would say, at the beginning of the quarter, excited that things were stabilizing,” CEO Jay Hennick said. “And then, of course, all this tariff stuff started and all of a sudden transactions that were close to closing had financing tied up and a variety of other things just were put on delay.”

He went on, echoing other executives’ sentiments, “We’re still in a market, in my view, that’s uncertain and unclear.”