Housing Market Swings to Buyers

The phrase “buyer’s market” is creeping into more conversations across the country.

After years of sellers calling the shots, a handful of major metros are showing cracks in seller dominance, even if the story looks very different depending on where you’re standing.

In New York, the market is showing its split personality. For homes under $4 million, the pendulum is swinging toward buyers slightly. Demand has ticked down, supply has ticked up and homes that need updating are sitting longer. But cross into luxury territory and the appetite for high-end property remains strong, with cash and international buyers driving record levels of all-cash deals.

In Manhattan, luxury prices climbed nearly 9 percent in the second quarter, while the overall market barely budged. Brooklyn is showing similar resilience at the high end, where top-tier properties are still sparking competition. For buyers, it’s either lean in with cash for a glossy penthouse or look for leverage on homes that need some work.

Parts of South Florida, on the other hand, are starting to feel more like a textbook buyer’s market. Price cuts are everywhere, days on market are stretching out, and buyers are walking away from contracts at one of the highest rates in the country. Condos in particular are piling up as special assessments and rising monthly fees scare off would-be purchasers.

Los Angeles is in a “weird moment,” as one local brokerage exec put it. It’s technically a buyer’s market, but with caveats. Inventory has been building all year while signed contracts lag, and sellers are finally having to reckon with pricing that doesn’t match the glossy listing photos. High interest rates are still keeping some buyers on the sidelines, and Measure ULA, aka the “mansion tax” and the state’s insurance crisis post-wildfires remain factors as well.

Texas, once the epicenter of seller dominance, has also seen the tide turn. Austin is firmly in a buyer’s market across the board, with twice as many sellers as buyers and luxury condos sitting with nearly 19 months of supply. Fort Worth is inching that way too, though it remains more balanced than Austin or Dallas.

Chicago is telling a very different story. While many markets lean toward buyers, homes here are moving at one of the fastest clips in the country at an average of 37 days in August, compared to 60 nationally. Low supply is the culprit, with Chicago buyers facing less than 40 percent of the listings available in 2019, which keeps demand concentrated on well-priced, well-located homes and fueling bidding wars.

Even with these shifts, buyers aren’t exactly rushing in to capitalize. Fannie Mae’s sentiment survey found nearly three-quarters of consumers still think it’s a bad time to buy. High prices and elevated interest rates remain major headwinds, and even the prospect of Fed cuts hasn’t reassured buyers, especially after last year’s rate adjustments failed to bring relief.

Whether this shift deepens into a broader buyer’s market will depend on inventory, interest rates and confidence heading into the fall. But buyers finally have a bit more leverage in select cities.

There was plenty of other real estate news this week. Michael Shvo is trying to pull off another comeback at the Raleigh Miami Beach redevelopment, WeWork is becoming Amazon’s real estate fixer and JPMorgan is offering a Manhattan office building for half of its pre-pandemic ask.

Here’s what’s happening at the Raleigh Miami Beach redevelopment

Michael Shvo is fighting to hang on to the stalled Raleigh Miami Beach redevelopment as rival bidder Nahla Capital moves to lock in a $275 million deal. Shvo and his partners bought the three-acre site in 2019 for $243 million with plans for a Rosewood-branded condo and hotel, but vertical construction never began despite a $190 million refinancing from BH3 Management.

JPMorgan offers Plaza District office building at big discount

JPMorgan is looking to sell a Plaza District office building for $270 million — roughly half of what it was asking for right before the pandemic hit five years ago. The bank’s asset management arm put up for sale the 23-story building at 125 West 55th Street, known as Avenue of the Americas Plaza

How WeWork became Amazon’s real estate fixer

When Amazon’s back-to-office mandate turned into a real estate headache, WeWork stepped in as its unlikely fixer. The coworking firm has quietly leased more than 675,000 square feet across Manhattan on Amazon’s behalf, including recent expansions at 1440 Broadway, 330 West 34th Street and 5 Manhattan West.

Douglas Elliman agent Darin Tansey dies at 50

Miami luxury broker Darin Tansey, a top Douglas Elliman agent who closed more than $3 billion in deals over his career, died suddenly Tuesday at 50. Tansey was found at his condo at the Ritz-Carlton Residences, Miami Beach, where he had also built his business. A cause of death has not been released.

Jeff Sutton draws second pre-foreclosure suit in Herald Square

Jeff Sutton is facing a second pre-foreclosure suit in Herald Square, this time over his retail buildings at 27-29 West 34th Street, where German lender Helaba alleges he’s on the hook for a $50 million loan as guarantor. The bank claims Sutton’s entity submitted false financial statements and failed to enforce a master lease, triggering “bad boy” clauses that could make him personally liable.

Opendoor names Shopify exec as CEO

Opendoor Technologies has brought on a former Shopify executive as its next chief executive officer. The company announced that Kaz Nejatian, the chief operating officer of e-commerce site Shopify, would be assuming the role of CEO effective immediately. He replaces former Opendoor CEO Carrie Wheeler, who stepped down amid calls for her resignation following a surge of retail investment in the company that saw its stock price increase as much as 500 percent since it was trading below $1 entering July.

Jeff Blau, Aby Rosen orchestrate emergency anti-Mamdani meeting

The real estate industry continues to take sides in the contested mayoral race, leading prominent developers to gather behind closed doors on Tuesday morning. Related Companies’ Jeff Blau and his wife sent an email on Monday evening calling for a gathering at the Seagram Building the next morning, the New York Times reported. The alert said the recipients “must act decisively to ensure that the next mayor of New York is Andrew Cuomo.”

Measure ULA drives developers out of LA

In order to sidestep hefty tax bills via Measure ULA after building and then selling a new development, developers are opting to build in cities in California and elsewhere that are not subject to the “mansion tax.” So far this year, the City of Los Angeles issued fewer permits for new apartment buildings with five or more units year-over-year, and Measure ULA is contributing to the slowdown.

Republican dissent around Bill Pulte grows
Bill Pulte’s star in the Trump administration appears on the rise as he alleges mortgage fraud against the president’s adversaries. But there is frustration growing on Capitol Hill within the president’s party. Several Republicans in the House of Representatives are taking issue with Pulte and his performance, Politico reported. The GOP lawmakers spoke anonymously to the publication.