Lowe’s Calls for Renovation Rebound in 2026

Home improvement may get the holiday lift the housing market sorely lacks.

Lowe’s is betting next year will bring a renovation boom as rate-fatigued homeowners stay put and spend instead of trading up, Realtor.com reported. The company’s stock jumped nearly 6 percent after CEO Marvin Ellison sketched out an optimistic outlook for remodels next year, even as rival Home Depot logged a down quarter.

Ellison told Yahoo Finance that Americans are sitting on “significant equity” yet remain blocked from buying thanks to mortgage rates that, while easing, still haven’t cracked the 6 percent psychological barrier. Instead of giving up sub-4 percent loans, he expects owners to tap home equity lines to tackle bigger discretionary projects.

It’s an argument with real estate implications: if people won’t move, at least they’ll renovate.

Industry fundamentals line up with that view. Though active listings jumped 15.3 percent year over year in October and rates hit 12-month lows, homes are taking longer to sell — 63 days on average, the 19th straight month of slowdown.

Stuck owners tend to push spending toward kitchens, baths and additions. Ellison framed it simply: people love their mortgage rate and “hate their kitchen.”

Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies supports that narrative. Its latest LIRA forecast shows homeowner renovation and repair spending staying stable into mid-2026 with growth of 2.4 percent early in the year and 1.9 percent by the third quarter.

Total spending is expected to hit a record $524 billion. Remodeling permit activity and single-family sales trends point to a steady demand base, even if the pace remains modest.

Demographics may add more fuel to the fire. U.S. housing stock is aging — the average home is now roughly 44 years old — and so are the buyers. NAR data pegs the typical first-time owner at 40.

Older homes and older owners mean more upgrades, particularly for people looking to age in place. Boomers already lead the pack: Angi data shows they spent more than $14,000 on home projects last year; 93 percent of all homeowners planned improvements for this year.

The wild card is mortgage rates. Freddie Mac pegged the latest 30-year average rate at 6.24 percent, likely still too high to unfreeze the move-up market. Builder confidence has nudged upward, but demand remains soft.

— Holden Walter-Warner