Rent Control Could Wipe $300B from Mass. Property Values

The looming rent control ballot fight in Massachusetts could have as high as a $300 billion price tag for housing markets across the Bay State.

An economic analysis from the Tufts University Center for State Policy Analysis estimated instating rent control statewide could erase roughly $300 billion in property values within a decade, Bisnow reported. Such a wipeout would send shock waves through municipal budgets and the housing market.

The report, commissioned by the Greater Boston Real Estate Board, arrives as industry groups ramp up opposition to a November ballot measure that would allow cities and towns to cap annual rent increases at 5 percent.

Researchers modeled the potential impact using historical examples, including rent control policies in St. Paul, Minnesota and Cambridge, which operated until voters banned the practice statewide in 1995.

Applying those patterns to today’s market, the researchers found municipalities could see an immediate 7.5 percent drop in residential property tax revenue and a permanent decline of up to 18 percent.

Boston alone could see property values fall 9 percent within three years if rent control were implemented, creating a $160 million budget gap, the report projected. Smaller cities such as Chelsea, Everett and Revere could face deeper long-term declines, with property values falling between 15 and 27 percent over the next decade.

The ballot initiative would apply across all 351 municipalities in the state, though it includes carveouts for owner-occupied buildings with four or fewer units and exempts new construction for the first 10 years. Supporters argue those provisions would blunt the policy’s impact on development.

Political leaders remain split. Gov. Maura Healey has come out against the proposal, warning it has already slowed some housing projects as developers weigh the policy risk. Boston Mayor Michelle Wu, meanwhile, supports rent stabilization but has encouraged state lawmakers to craft an alternative framework if they oppose the ballot measure.

Advocates behind the campaign — led by the housing group Homes for All Massachusetts — say rent regulation is necessary to curb runaway housing costs. In a statement, executive director Carolyn Chou argued the real economic risk is failing to address rent spikes that can “legally double overnight.”

The clash is likely headed for both the courts and the campaign trail. A landlord-backed coalition has asked the state’s Supreme Judicial Court to block the question from appearing on the ballot, even as early polling shows voters leaning toward rent caps.

— Holden Walter-Warner