We are excited to announce that Jonathan Miller, who has long authored the most authoritative report on the residential real estate market, is partnering with The Real Deal. Below, you’ll find his Housing Notes column, which will now run on our site several times a week. In addition, Miller’s quarterly report for New York City, which he published through Douglas Elliman for more than three decades, will now be “The Real Deal report, prepared by Jonathan Miller.” Miller’s data venture, Streetmatrix, which provides hyperlocal data, will provide statistics to TRD Data subscribers.
— TRD editors
Poll: How Americans feel about their finances
Since I wrote a massive 10-minute read/screed yesterday on the stalled Fannie Mae IPO, I thought I’d go easy on you today. I saw this excellent chart, but it gave off some bad vibes. Last week I wrote a post: Nothing Makes Sense! But Local Versus Macro Explains It, where I talked about how consumers apply their personal sentiment to macro trends like the housing market, which confuses them. But it’s even more confusing than that. A record share of consumers think their financial position is eroding.
This new Gallup poll found that 55 percent of Americans say their finances are getting worse, the highest share in at least 25 years. Respondents most often cite cost of living and energy prices as their main financial challenges, with concerns amplified by rising gas prices following the Iran conflict. This isn’t rocket science, but their perceptions of deteriorating personal finances will significantly influence the midterm election outcome.
Let’s be clear, polls are one step away from data
First, I need to address the idea of relying on polls. Polls are hard to do well, and most of us probably think of them first in the context of politics, which is their worst use. Either way, they are frequently misinterpreted and increasingly distorted by who actually answers them (and who doesn’t). I think of polls as data about people’s self-reported beliefs and intentions, not about the underlying real-world behavior itself, so they’re inherently one step removed from the data we ultimately care about. But still.
Poll: Homebuying intentions are falling
In an April Gallup poll, 30 percent of non-homeowners expect to buy a home in the next five years, down from 41 percent in 2013. That drop clearly correlates with the Axios survey on deteriorating consumer financials since housing is a huge part of personal finances.
Inventory levels are driving our housing outlook
As I’ve been saying for about five years, listing inventory is the most important housing metric today. You can see it in active regional inventory counts by ResiClub, compared with a Gallup poll on future price expectations. Rising inventory is associated with a lower share of consumers who expect housing prices to increase in their region.
Renting reasons
Affordability is the number one reason renters are staying in the rental market, as rents have risen 51 percent over the past 12 years. There it is. Affordability dominates their reasoning, while most of the other possible reasons haven’t changed that much. The affordability gap has widened further from everything else.
Final thoughts
Americans are increasingly pessimistic about their finances, with 55 percent saying things are getting worse, driven by cost pressures and energy prices, and that sentiment is weighing on housing demand and homebuying intentions. While polls reflect perception, not behavior, they still signal real demand shifts, especially as affordability dominates and rising inventory cools price expectations. More broadly, negative sentiment itself may now be reinforcing housing weakness, creating a feedback loop that slows the market even if macro conditions stabilize. It’s a mess out there.
The Actual Final Thought — The difference between reality and perception is tactile.
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