Trump Inflation Fears Pushed Up NYC Rents In October

Manhattan rents rose in October, a seasonal anomaly driven by Donald Trump.

The median rent hit $4,295, a 2.3 percent increase from September and the first in six months, according to a Douglas Elliman report by appraiser Jonathan Miller.

Prices typically slip in the fall because fewer renters move house.

This year, rents fell through most of the summer as mortgage rates dropped, based on the expectation that the Federal Reserve would cut rates. When borrowing costs are lower, more prospective homebuyers pull the trigger, relieving rental market pressure and lowering rents.

Insiders expected the trend to continue. The Fed projected more cuts, which would drag the rate on the 30-year mortgage lower, and rents in tow.

But then the market priced in a Donald Trump White House.

Leading up to the election, Trump’s proposed tariffs, “which are highly inflationary,” came into focus. The president-elect has threatened a 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports and 20 percent tariff on all other imports, which economists say will be passed on to consumers.

The yield on the 10-year treasury rose as investors priced in that inflationary risk — which in turn sent mortgage rates up.

The rate on the 30-year mortgage rose from 6.12 to 6.72 percent in October, according to Freddie Mac.

Inflation fears are still front and center heading into the rest of 2025, and the ripple effects will likely “push would-be buyers back into rentals,” Miller said. That means rents could rise through the winter.

The recent ban on broker fees could also push up rents as landlords bake the cost of hiring a broker into the listing price. Miller said the change would be reflected in the numbers but not in the “actual costs to tenants.”

“[It’s a] shift from key fees to rents,” the appraiser said.