Commercial Real Estate’s Hopes and Fears Under Mamdani

What keeps New York’s top commercial real estate players awake at night? Politics.

“It’s political risk at all levels,” Related Companies’ Jeff Blau said during a panel discussion on Wednesday. “National, state and city.”

Blau joined a group of CRE heavyweights — Bill Rudin of Rudin Management, Winston Fisher of Fisher Brothers and Mary Ann Tighe of CBRE — on stage at the NYU Schack Institute of Real Estate capital markets conference to discuss, among other things, the looming uncertainty posed by Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani.

Panelists weighed the broader social proposals Mamdani has championed. Free childcare and subsidized transportation, Fisher argued, aren’t just social gestures, they’re economic levers that could keep more families in the city. The cost of early childhood care is a massive tax on the working and middle class, he said. He also proposed offering free bus service to select groups, like CUNY students, noting that transportation costs prevent many from completing their degrees.

“There’s a real estate angle that he’s talking about, but it is infinitely deeper than that,” Fisher said. “We are tethered to New York. We have to help him solve these problems because they are growing every day.”

But Tighe cautioned against comingling housing legislation with social mandates.

“One of the challenges for this mayor is there’s a lot of virtue signaling going on — free this, free that,” Tighe said. “But the reality of it is, you have to understand if you want to build housing, focus on building housing. Because if there’s anything that history has shown us, you make a clear, crisp piece of legislation that has a target, and these folks will make it a reality.”

Blau said he is hopeful that Mamdani will continue the current mayor’s initiatives that encourage companies to come to New York.

“The reason companies come here is because talent wants to be here,” Blau said. “In my opinion, it’s the mayor’s job to make New York City the place where people want to continue to come.”

The city’s housing shortage dominated much of the discussion. Rudin zeroed in on the vacant rent-stabilized units kept off the market due to restrictions on rent increases.

“Raise that cap, you would see within six months these units come back on the market,” he said. “That’s something that the mayor-elect, we’ve told him and his people.”

All the panelists emphasized the need for the city government to work with private developers to draft legislation that makes sense. Not surprisingly, they were critical of the city’s 485x tax break, which includes a wage floor that kicks in for projects with 100 or more units, making it difficult for large projects to pencil out.

“There’s a plethora of opportunities to continue to create more housing,” Fisher said, adding that there needs to be incentive for the private sector. “That’s the rub. I think if he allows private capital to come in and have an adequate return, private capital will build.”

Despite the clear uncertainty, the panel struck a cautiously optimistic tone. Fisher and Tighe highlighted New York’s resilience, cultural vibrancy and tolerance for difference as reasons to believe the city can thrive, whatever way the political winds blow. While his ideology is unmistakable, panelists noted signs that Mamdani might navigate city politics with a mix of conviction and compromise.

“He sort of plays the ‘I didn’t realize how complex it was gonna be’ card very often, and with that, he says, ‘I’ll be more pragmatic now,’” Fisher said. “I just don’t know if that’s true or not. We’ll find out shortly, but he is learning very quickly that there’s a ton of powerful constituencies that have a real voice, and when they speak, you have no choice but to listen.”