Manhattan’s Resi Sales Closed 2025 With “Goldilocks Market”

Luxury deals drove Manhattan’s sales market for most of 2025, but by year’s end, the momentum trickled down.

Last quarter, co-op sales — generally priced below condos — outpaced condo deals in the borough for the first time in more than a year, powered by a steady decline in mortgage rates during the back half of the year, according to Miller Samuel’s quarterly report for Douglas Elliman.

“As mortgage rates drifted lower, we saw an improvement in sales of lower-priced units because those buyers are more reliant on mortgage rates,” said report author Jonathan Miller, who added that mortgage rates had fallen 60 basis points since the summer.

The rise in co-op deals fueled an increase in sales across both property types in the three-month period, despite fears that New York City’s mayoral election and its victor, Zohran Mamdani, would chill sales.

“The housing market right now is a Goldilocks market,” Miller said. “It’s just right.”

Manhattan nabbed more than 2,600 closed sales in the fourth quarter, up 5 percent from less than 2,500 in the same period in 2024. The median sale price was $1.13 million, up slightly from $1.1 million during the same time frame.

Roughly 1,500 co-ops traded in the fourth quarter, up 7 percent from fewer than 1,400 in the fourth quarter of 2024. During the same period, the borough logged 1,200 condo sales, up just 3 percent year-over-year from 1,100. The median sale price of co-ops was $825,000, while the median sale price of a condo was $1.7 million.

If rates continue to dwindle, which Miller said many economists expect, it’s likely activity at the lower end of the market could continue to bolster sales across the borough through the first quarter of 2026, especially as a boom in deals for luxury properties throughout the first three quarters of last year tightened inventory levels at the highest end of the market.

Listings for luxury homes — defined in the report as the top 10 percent of condo and co-op sales — fell 15 percent annually, outpacing the overall market, where inventory dropped just 4 percent. While the decrease was less substantial, co-op and condo inventory in Manhattan fell to its lowest level since 2017.

Last quarter was a departure from the rest of 2025, which saw modest increases in inventory in the first three quarters, though growth in the number of sales was outpacing listings hitting the market for most of those periods.

“We have a housing market that is not showing the ‘Mamdani effect,’” Miller said. “Overall, we’re seeing sales edge higher, prices edge higher and inventory declining, with the biggest drop at the top of the market because that segment has been outperforming the balance of the market.”

Despite a decline in mortgage rates, cash sales still dominated in the fourth quarter, with three out of four buyers purchasing their condos in all-cash deals. Cash sales hit their highest market share in at least a decade in 2025, with roughly 65 percent of purchases made with all cash.

Roughly 7.5 percent of sales closed in the fourth quarter were the result of bidding wars, marking the highest share in three years. Despite the rise, Miller said bidding wars are still in the range considered normal for Manhattan, where the record share was 31 percent in 2015.

While the lower end of the market stole the spotlight last quarter, Miller said the luxury market is still “in a good position to fare better, regardless of rates,” thanks to two “banner years” for Wall Street.