Contracts Slow, But Continue to Grow In Tri-state Suburbs

Tri-state suburban residential markets managed to rise just above the fray of high mortgage rates, low inventory and a banking crisis that slowed activity in New York City and out east.

Contract signings were up month-over-month in Long Island, Westchester, Fairfield and Greenwich, according to an April report by Miller Samuel for Douglas Elliman.

While the markets retained monthly gains, the rate of growth was much lower than in February and March, report author Jonathan Miller said. But unlike the slowdowns in other regions covered by the report — including Brooklyn, Manhattan, the Hamptons and North Fork — activity in the suburbs didn’t dip low enough to hit losses.

“Whether [contract activity] goes negative, like it did in Manhattan, Brooklyn and the Hamptons, or it’s positive, there was still a lower level of intensity in the month of April essentially uniformly across the region,” Miller said.

February and March brought greater than seasonal activity to the suburban market, but Miller said speculation about whether the Federal Reserve would again hike interest rates and concerns about the banking crisis stunted contract signings last month.

Contract activity in Fairfield surpassed that of other suburban markets, increasing by 15 percent month-over-month. New listings rose by 2 percent, the fourth monthly increase in a row. Despite the monthly gains, the Connecticut county still saw annual decreases in both new contract signings and new listings, down by 32 percent and 36 percent respectively.

Long Island’s new signed contracts increased by 3 percent month-over-month, but declined by 26 percent year-over-year. New listings dipped annually by 33 percent and for the first time in four months by 4 percent.

New signed contracts in Westchester were up by 4 percent from March, though activity declined annually by 27 percent. New listings rose for the fourth consecutive month — a 5 percent increase — but decreased by 30 percent compared to April 2022.

In Greenwich, new signed contracts rose by 7 percent month-over-month but dropped by 27 percent annually. The Connecticut town outperformed its peers in new listings last month, which increased by 16 percent from March. But new listings were still significantly lower — down by 30 percent — than that of April 2022.

Though the suburban market “took a breath” in April, Miller said he expects an increase in activity in May.

“I suspect from the early May numbers that [it] is going to continue what we saw in February and in March,” Miller said.