San Francisco Assessment Roll Growth Plummets

San Francisco’s property values grew less than 2 percent in the last fiscal year, aligning with similar trends across the Bay Area.

The city’s assessment roll, which combines the assessed value of land, structures and business property that is subject to property tax, increased 1.8 percent, or about $353.5 billion, in the fiscal year ending June 30, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. The sluggish growth can likely be attributed to the falling values of office buildings, hotels and some multifamily housing as well as property owners seeking to lower their tax bills, according to the Chronicle.

When stacked up against the rest of the counties in the Bay Area, San Francisco comes in dead last in terms of assessment roll growth. The latest numbers mark the lowest growth rate since 2011 and is down from 2.2 percent growth last year.

Those hoping for a rebound in the coming years might be waiting for quite some time. This year’s “very, very modest growth” is causing city leaders to predict that property taxes “will be stagnant to declining in the next couple of years, which is huge,” Michelle Allersma, director of the Controller’s Office Budget and Analysis Division, told the Chronicle.

“Flat property tax revenues feel like a hit” because they are not keeping up with expenditures,” Allersma said. “We are bracing ourselves for changes to federal and state revenue.”

Other Bay Area counties with large commercial sectors saw lower growth rates than last year.

The assessment roll in Santa Clara County, home to Silicon Valley, grew nearly 4.2 percent, or nearly $726 billion, the lowest since 2012.

Across the Bay in Alameda County, the assessment roll grew about 3.7 percent, down from almost 5 percent growth last year.

By contrast, more rural or residential counties performed better; Solano County, for example, had the highest growth rate, which can partially be attributed to new housing developments, the Chronicle reported.

The assessment roll statistics out of San Francisco might cause concern given the past decade of expansions and contractions. In 2017 and 2018, San Francisco’s roll grew more than 10 percent, becoming the highest in the state. Even in the peak pandemic year of 2020, the assessment roll grew by 4.6 percent, higher than the 2024-25 fiscal year. — Chris Malone Méndez