Home Values in Oakland Tell Tale of Two Cities

While the housing market in many parts of the Bay Area has largely recovered from post-pandemic lows, Oakland is still wallowing in diminished values after a peak just a few years ago.

The typical home value in the city fell to roughly $716,000 in March, down 11.4 percent year over year after adjusting for inflation, the San Francisco Chronicle reported, citing data from Zillow.

That’s the steepest decline among U.S. cities with more than 100,000 residents, tied with Cape Coral, Florida also with an 11.4 percent year-over-year drop in value. Unlike Cape Coral, however, Oakland home values are now 28.1 percent below March 2019 levels; Cape Coral’s home values are roughly 10 percent higher than they were at that time. Oakland led the country in loss of value from both 2019 and year over year from last March.

Home values in Oakland have been spiraling downward since a mortgage rate peak in 2022. The typical home value in the city reached roughly $1.1 million, adjusted for inflation. The last time homes in the city were valued as low as they are now was in 2015, according to the Chronicle.

Oakland’s downturn has also been compounded by broader urban headwinds including rising concerns around crime, hollowed-out downtowns and a migration toward suburban markets. While San Francisco has seen a surge in housing demand — and, as a result, higher home prices and rental rates — thanks to an influx of workers in the booming artificial intelligence sector, that level of demand hasn’t yet crossed the Bay Bridge.

A monthly mortgage payment on a midpriced Oakland home would run about $3,680 with 20 percent down, well above what many local households can comfortably absorb and often pricier than typical rents, according to Zillow data. But, as with the so-called mansion shortage across the Bay in San Francisco, Oakland is seeing increased demand for homes in wealthier neighborhoods while the broader market trends downward.

Home values in the 94618 ZIP code, which includes the tony Rockridge enclave, dropped just 5 percent year over year, leaving it the city’s priciest pocket at more than $1.6 million. By contrast, downtown Oakland’s 94612 ZIP code saw values plunge 16 percent over the same period.— Chris Malone Méndez