Bay Area’s $20B Housing Bond Dies Before It Reaches Ballot

In a last-minute meeting, the Bay Area Housing Finance Authority voted unanimously to remove its $20 billion regional housing bond from the November ballot in light of ongoing legal battles and recent polling showing the measure does not have enough support to pass.

The regional board is “not saying goodbye but see you later” to the ballot measure it approved in June, said Vice Chair Nick Josefowitz after comments from numerous “heart-broken” affordable housing advocates who had been gearing up for the vote, as well as those who were pleased to see the measure removed because they said an additional property tax was asking too much of cash-strapped voters.

The vote came on the final day to decide whether or not to move the measure forward; it would have cost the organization more than $3 million in translation fees and the like to put it on the ballot. The public hearing came after a closed-door session with legal counsel on existing and anticipated challenges to the measure, as well as polling showing only 50 percent support.

Commissioners thanked their partner organizations for their hard work on the campaign but with “heavy hearts” unanimously decided to remove the ballot measure.

They asked supporters to turn their disappointment into energy behind Proposition 5, a state ballot measure that is moving forward despite its own legal troubles, which would lower the vote threshold from 66.67 to 55 percent for local bond measures to fund housing projects and public infrastructure. If that passes, it would make it significantly easier to pass a similar housing bond in the future.

“The BAHFA Board has always understood that it would be a steep climb to establish this source of funding,” said Chair Alfredo Pedroza and Belia Ramos, president of the Association of Bay Area Governments, in a joint statement after the vote. “Recent developments have led the board to conclude that the wise choice is to look ahead to another election season for a regional housing measure when there is more certainty and the voters have weighed in affirmatively on Proposition 5.”

“We will do this sequentially with step one and step two,” agreed Aime Fishman of the Non-Profit Housing Association of California, one of the co-chairs for the bond campaign. “We knew that doing them together would be hard, and right now we have to pivot to a sequential plan.”

Exactly when the measure would return is a big question as the board is already planning a 2026 transit bond measure and many speakers at the meeting said it would be a mistake to put both on the same ballot.

Commissioner Jim Spering said that the expected transportation measure could not be postponed “because of the conditions of many transit operators” and he worried about a “potential collision” if both bonds came together in two years.

Yet other speakers said there was no time to waste in getting the issue before voters and that the lack of affordable housing in the state had become a life or death issue.

“This will do real damage to the Bay Area,” said YIMBY Action Director Laura Foote. “This is going to be a real tragedy for everybody, including our local economy.”

Those in favor of removing the bond measure said the economy, especially inflation, was the reason it had not garnered more support. The bond would have been funded by a property tax of $19 per $100,000 of assessed value, or about $400 per year for a home in Bay Area communities where a $2 million home price is the norm.

“There’s a reason the polling for this measure has been negative. It is simply a terrible time to ask residents to pay more taxes,” said San Mateo County District 3 Supervisor Ray Mueller, who represents some of San Mateo County’s most affluent cities including Atherton, Menlo Park and Woodside, as well as coastal communities like Pacifica and Half Moon Bay.

Noelia Corzo, Mueller’s counterpart in District 2, which includes San Mateo and Foster City, agreed that “inflation has hit our communities hard.” But she said that pulling the housing measure was not the solution and repeated the maxim used by several other commenters that “Justice delayed is justice denied.”

“The need in the community is so real,” she said. “It’s just heart-breaking.”